Winter Weather Threat Mode for (1/12-13/2018)

[I gotta go to work]

Lets get the triple header HS basketball games finished at NKU Friday night then the snow can be unleashed. :lol2:

[True blue (and gold)]

Channel 19 at 6pm last night showed one model that said possibly 20 inches

 

Wow. Scare tactics!

[TheDeuce]

Channel 19 at 6pm last night showed one model that said possibly 20 inches

 

That's just irresponsible forecasting. Hate it.

[SnottieDrippen]

So maybe reconsider a trip to Cleveland this weekend?

[NamecipS]

Wow. Scare tactics!

 

That's just irresponsible forecasting. Hate it.

 

They put the disclaimer out there. All depends on when the temperature changes. If it changes early more snow, later then less snow. I think it was more of a lesson on how they predict snowfall totals

[TheDeuce]

They put the disclaimer out there. All depends on when the temperature changes. If it changes early more snow, later then less snow. I think it was more of a lesson on how they predict snowfall totals

 

Even mentioning 20" as far as three days out is reckless and irresponsible IMO. They'll look really silly if it turns out to be 1-2", and then people will say "Didn't they predict 20"?"

[NamecipS]

Even mentioning 20" as far as three days out is reckless and irresponsible IMO. They'll look really silly if it turns out to be 1-2", and then people will say "Didn't they predict 20"?"

 

I hope we get double digits. It’s been a while

[The Professor]

From the models nWo posted it appears eastern Kentucky might get spared the worst of the storm.

Most models are trending the heaviest parts of the storm through the Ohio River flow area onward through central Ohio. The Bluegrass region is impacted too.

[sweet16]

That's just irresponsible forecasting. Hate it.

 

I agree and it is done a lot by forecasters.

[nWo]

The way it was explained to me by an old friend is, during times like this, when the weather is so warm.

 

They have a pretty good idea of how much total precipitation we will have, but it's really hard to predict the temperature drop when rain will turn to snow.

 

Where I grew up, up north, the rain to snow conversion was 1" of rain equals 10" of snow. Down here I think it's more like 1" to 7".

 

So if they are figuring a 3" rain equivalent. Depending on what point that turns to snow you might get 2 1/2" of rain and 3" of snow, or you could get 21" of snow.

 

@nWo will have to help us to say if that explanation is on track, but that's what I've been told in the past.

 

The main reason I don't really use the 10:1 ratio because the air temperature affects the ratio. The colder the air less snow. I mainly use the Kuchera ratio. Which use the method by Evan Kuchera witch instantaneous snowfall ratio.

[HammerTime]

I hate winter, but if it’s gonna snow, bring the noise.

 

Yep, lets get one good one and be done with it.

[nWo]

All of the models on the 12z run have come into good agreement about the snow accumulations. There's still a little difference about the how much ice some will get. One thing of note though those in WKY need to be prepared as soon as possible for power outages. I'm going to wait and see the next model runs. If the trend continues I will give my first call for snow and ice accumulations later today.

 

As I said earlier don't take the early model runs for predictions. The NAM came into good agreement with the GFS and Canadain models on 12z run.

[StrongSide]

All of the models on the 12z run have come into good agreement about the snow accumulations. There's still a little difference about the how much ice some will get. One thing of note though those in WKY need to be prepared as soon as possible for power outages. I'm going to wait and see the next model runs. If the trend continues I will give my first call for snow and ice accumulations later today.

 

As I said earlier don't take the early model runs for predictions. The NAM came into good agreement with the GFS and Canadain models on 12z run.

 

 

Anddddddddd what are they agreeing on?

[nWo]

Anddddddddd what are they agreeing on?

 

The same thing but not on one other thing. I'm not going to post any totals until I get to see another run or two.

[theguru]

This is what Weather.com currently says for NKY:

 

Friday, Rain...mixing with snow in the afternoon. Some sleet or freezing rain possible. Morning high of 41F with temps falling to near freezing. Winds N at 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 100%. 1 to 3 inches of snow expected.

 

Friday Night, Snowy and windy conditions in the evening. Snow will taper off to a few snow showers overnight. Low near 15F. Winds N at 20 to 30 mph. Chance of snow 90%. 1 to 3 inches of snow expected.