Which class was stronger last year, 1A or 2A?

[The Scribe]

Originally posted by theguru

Scribe? Please do some number crunching, I have both the Cantrall and LIT ratings from late in the season if you need them.

 

The crunching has begun....

[westsider]

Originally posted by oneijoe

westsider...

 

You surprise me. I agreed with your numbers, NOW you're telling me they're NO GOOD??

 

I know power ratings aren't worth much (I voted that way in THAT poll). I also know any of this stuff we're doing wouldn't mean a hill of beans compared to a face to face Breathitt Co-Mayfield meeting. But that never happened. The number crunching is all we have to make a "best guess" of how that game might have gone.

 

Guys, I'm taking this no more serious than the rest of you. But something objective will always make for a more valid point. IMO, westsider, you did a great job of that on your earlier post. Now, if you could only bring yourself to agree on your OWN conclusion....

 

I think you misunderstood me, oneijoe. I wasn't jumping to a conclusion, simply pointing out that going by won-loss records only doesn't always tell the whole story.

 

Like I said earlier, if push comes to shove I'm siding with 2A. But I think it's ridiculous to say that, as you or someone else hinted, just because 2A teams had a winning record against 3A teams automatically makes 2A better. You have to consider the level of competition and many other factors.

[oneijoe]

LOL... Would you have to use the term "push comes to shove" if the question dealt with 2A vs 3A strength?

 

Why not give 2A the same benefit of the doubt 4A gets over 3A, and 3A gets over 2A ??

 

Hopefully, theScribe's numbers will enlighten us further... LOL, or at least keep us entertained a while longer.

 

[password]

Originally posted by oneijoe

LOL... Would you have to use the term "push comes to shove" if the question dealt with 2A vs 3A strength?

 

Why not give 2A the same benefit of the doubt 4A gets over 3A, and 3A gets over 2A ??

 

Hopefully, theScribe's numbers will enlighten us further... LOL, or at least keep us entertained a while longer.

 

 

My last attempt at proving that the won-loss record means nothing.

 

This coming season lets say I am predicting the following and it happens:

2A Lloyd will defeat 2A Newport.

 

In non-district games scheduled as of now I predict:

2A Lloyd will lose to 1A Beechwood

2A Lloyd will lose to 1A NewCath

2A Lloyd will lose to 4A Dixie

2A Lloyd will beat 4A Simon Kenton

2A Lloyd will beat 4A Scott

2A Lloyd will lose to 3A Mason Co.

Record vs 1A = 0-2

Record vs 3A = 0-1

Record vs 4A = 2-1

 

2A Newport will lose to 1A NewCath

2A Newport will beat 1A Dayton

2A Newport will beat 1A Bellevue

2A Newport will beat 1A Frankfort

Record vs 1A = 3-1

 

Overall 2A record versus 1A = 3-3

Overall 2A record versus 3A = 0-1

Overall 2A record versus 4A = 2-1

 

Now do you think these 2A teams have demonstrated a superiority over 4A? Do you think 3A is clearly better than 2A?

Do you think 1A and 2A are dead even? The won loss records would prove it, correct?

 

And how could a 2-4 Lloyd knock off a 3-1 Newport in 2A action?

 

It all comes down to who has played who.

[goherd96]

Originally posted by westsider

Heck, Ashland scored 28 on Russell in four quarters, and I don't hear anybody nominating the Tomcats for offense of the year.

 

Since you keep bringing up the Ashland game, you obviously need some clarification on this point. The Ashland game was game 2 last season. Ashland scored 20 of their 28 points on the new starting DB. He blew his coverage assignment on three TD passes and on a 2 pt conversion play.

 

He was removed from the starting lineup the following week and played little or no defense the rest of the year. Comparing Russell's defense against Ashland to their defense against Breathitt is apples and oranges.

 

Regarding Mason County, Russell might have been only one play away from losing both games, but the Royals couldn't make it. When push came to shove, the Red Devils made the big plays to win the games.

 

As for Portsmouth West, they finished as the Ohio Division IV (I think it's D-IV) runner-up last season.

 

Ask NewarkCatholicFan about Russell and Breathitt versus the top 1A teams. I sent him copies of most of Russell's games and I'm pretty sure he went to the championship games. He might be able to provide some impartiality to this subject.

[oneijoe]

password...

 

Enough already....I understand your point. How many times do I have to say that?

 

I think won/loss means more than "NOTHING", especially with a sample of games as large as we're talking (EVERY out of class game). It's a sample much, much larger than the number of teams in your examples. The bigger the number in a statistical sample, the more accurate the analysis becomes.

 

But YES, for the most part I agree... Who played whom is DEFINATELY a BIG factor of the equation to determine a power rating.

 

The whole idea behind the so called "power ratings", both Cantrall and Massey, is to INCLUDE THAT FACTOR into their evaluations. That's exactly the approach westsider took when he compared Breathitt Co. and Mayfield. I don't know how accurate ANY of this number stuff is (LOL, who does?), but it makes logical sense and is more neutral than a subjective evaluation.

 

You can't legitimately talk about scheduling differences as being a factor between two teams or, in this case, groups of teams ALREADY evaluated on the basis of a legitimate "power rating".

 

I'll throw my hands up (in disgust) if someone claims "scheduling differences" once theScribe posts the results of his number crunching.

 

:creepy: :scared:

[westsider]

Originally posted by oneijoe

LOL... Would you have to use the term "push comes to shove" if the question dealt with 2A vs 3A strength?

 

Why not give 2A the same benefit of the doubt 4A gets over 3A, and 3A gets over 2A ??

 

Let me answer the first question ... 3A is clearly better than 2A. If we had rated the top teams in both classes and play them against each other last season, 1 thru 10 or 1 thru 20 ... I'm not sure 2A would have won a game.

 

Why does any class deserve "the benefit of the doubt?" ... 2A is relatively weaker than it should be, which is why some fans think A is equal to it or better.

[password]

Originally posted by oneijoe

password...

 

Enough already....I understand your point. How many times do I have to say that?

 

I think won/loss means more than "NOTHING", especially with a sample of games as large as we're talking (EVERY out of class game). It's a sample much, much larger than the number of teams in your examples. The bigger the number in a statistical sample, the more accurate the analysis becomes.

 

:creepy: :scared:

 

The analysis only becomes more accurate if the larger sample is RANDOM which 2A games against selected opposition is not. My two team example could be expanded to 10 teams and support my 2A dominant over 4A example even more because we are dealing with a very select number of games.

 

If the Top 10 teams in 2A play the bottom 10 in 1A and go 10-0 it reveals nothing about 2A. If the Bottom 10 teams in 2A play the Top 10 teams in 4A and go 0-10 it reveals nothing about 2A.

 

The above games would have no meaning on the Top 10 of 2A playing the Top 10 of 1A or 3A 0r 4A.

[oneijoe]

Why does any class deserve "the benefit of the doubt?" ... 2A is relatively weaker than it should be...

 

How do you come to that conclusion?

 

 

The analysis only becomes more accurate if the larger sample is RANDOM which 2A games against selected opposition is not.

 

True, it isn't a random sampling because the coaches set the matchups before the season. 2A played a total of 190 games vs. opponents of other class (1A, 3A, 4A). There were 54 2A teams. That's a lot of data to discount because you claim it's contrived, ie, top 2A teams only played and beat lesser 1A, 3A, and 4A teams.

 

I'm not claiming 2A is better than 3A or 4A. I'm claiming 2A is OVERALL better than 1A, and to this point, I'm the only one that's used some sort of numerical analysis in attempting to prove it (even if you think my evidence is very weak).

[password]

Looking at last year's schedules of every Kentucky school, Class 2A owned a 36-35 record over Class A teams.

 

 

Give me a list of every one those games and I will tell you if 2A is better than 1A.

 

Otherwise I cannot say for certain one way or the other.

 

And tell me what you mean by "Better". All 54 teams together, the Top 20 in each class, the Top 10????

[3wishes]

Originally posted by westsider

Let me answer the first question ... 3A is clearly better than 2A. If we had rated the top teams in both classes and play them against each other last season, 1 thru 10 or 1 thru 20 ... I'm not sure 2A would have won a game.

 

I never thought we would agree on anything, somewhere hot has just froze over:lol:

 

:thumb:

[westsider]

If it froze over, that may explain the cool spring ...

 

Of course, I forgot that Mason did beat Rockcastle ... :lol:

[3wishes]

Originally posted by theguru

I don't think that's worth much. That was early, long before Beechwood put it all together.

 

That was theguru's reply to why the Beechies got beat in the opener, that will also be my excuse as too why Rock lost that day. Without 4 starters too I might add:lol:

[theguru]

Originally posted by 3wishes

That was theguru's reply to why the Beechies got beat in the opener, that will also be my excuse as too why Rock lost that day. Without 4 starters too I might add:lol:

 

I don't think that holds water in the Rock's case. The Rock was coming off of a State Runner Up finish with most of their team back. The Tigers had their weakest team in years the year before and they were playing under a new coach. Beechwood was a much much better team at the end of the year. To be honest, they weren't very good at all early in the year.

 

oneijoe,

 

There are a lot of ways to crunch the numbers but I think we are going to have something pretty good to look at once Scribe is done. The power ratings are the missing link in your theory. We need to see what the average power rating is of the teams 2A teams beat and the teams that beat the 2A teams and then the same for the 1A teams. I think that will be a very good indicator and I for one do not know how it's going to turn out but I can't wait.

 

Also, I think westsider made a good point when he said if you take the top 20 2A teams and play them against the Top 20 3A teams that 3A may win every game. I don't think that would happen if 1A played 2A or 3A played 4A and therefore I think he was correct in saying that "2A is relatively weaker than it should be."

[Sportsfan33]

I very seriously doubt that 2A would lose all twenty games. It would have been more like 10-10 or 9-11, or something like that.