Which class was stronger last year, 1A or 2A?

[westsider]

Originally posted by EKU_05

for what it's worth westsider I think from 1-5 A was slightly better than AA.... the point I have been trying to convey is that after you get past Mayfield, Danville, Beechwood, and NewCath.... AA football is better than A..

 

I wouldn't argue against you on that point. I voted for "about the same" but if I had to with one or the other, I'd go with 2A. Heck, 2A should be better. Just because we're debating the issue says a lot.

[oneijoe]

I would think a better debate would be whether 2A is better OVERALL than 3A. Look at the contents of Scribe's link on his earlier post.

 

In judging from those numbers, 1A is EVEN with 3A. 2A won more vs. 3A by a pretty wide margin.

 

I realize those numbers don't say who played who and therefore don't tell the whole story, but it does lend some creedance to 2A's level of play.

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I think breathitt fan was referring Breathitt's OFFENSE being able to compete with Trinity and Male.

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Scribe, I think Breathitt would take 7 of 10 vs. Mayfield on a neutral field.

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Why does everyone seem to think it's such a detractor for Breathitt in having such a close game with Russell?? At the end of the year the Red Devils defense was comparable to ANYONE else's in 1A and 2A (including Mayfield, IMO) - at about 2 notches below Boyle Co.. Russell's offense, though, wasn't that good. They LIVED off turnovers generated by that defense. The Breathitt Co QB had poor game (like Schott and Wera) in the first 3 quarters because of it, BUT he managed to put things back together in the 4th. The Russell offense just wasn't good enough to keep the ball and hold the lead.

[The Scribe]

Originally posted by oneijoe

In judging from those numbers, 1A is EVEN with 3A. 2A won more vs. 3A by a pretty wide margin.

 

I think it proves that 1A teams are playing up more, just playing some of the weaker 3A schools.

 

Originally posted by oneijoe

Scribe, I think Breathitt would take 7 of 10 vs. Mayfield on a neutral field.

 

I think this will just be a east vs. west debate with the east picking Breathitt and the west taking Mayfield. Having seen them both play late in the season last year, I think Mayfield had the better defense.

[EKU_05]

Scribe,

Excellent post with those numbers...that really speaks volumes! I am also willing to bet it put a smile on oneijoe's face to see those numbers considering he originated this whole topic with his "Why doesn't 2A get any respect" thread. Excellent job though!

 

 

oneijoe,

I see where it'd be easy to assume my position as stating the top 5 of 2A is better... I think everyone can see my bias towards 2A.

And thanks for echoing my sentiments on the Russell game. In another thread I said they were by far the second best 2A team, and I was told what would Mason County say to that, well I think 2-0 against Mason County last year is proof enough. Mason had one of the state's top offenses and Russell didnt have a problem shutting it down, then for Breathitt to pretty much score all 28 points in the equivalent of one half of football shows how awesome the Bobcats could be when that offense was clicking.

 

 

Now for a real conversation starter, could the top 5 teams in the eastern semi-state of 2A be better than the top 5 1A teams this year? lol I say this jokingly but when you think of it Sheldon Clark, Belfry, Prestonsburg, Breathitt, Middlesboro, and Russell could very well be the top 6 teams in 2A this year.

[westsider]

Originally posted by Sportsfan33

Breathitt also put up 42 points on North Hardin and 35 on Harrison Co.

 

Breathitt actually put up 48 on North Hardin, a week after the Trojans were beat up badly 43-0 by Trinity. North Hardin also gave up 47 to Manual in the playoffs.

 

And about that 35 on Harrison ... Ryle put up 34 on Harrison, LexCath scored 41 on them and CovCath rang up 54 big ones.

 

Third best offense, huh? On a par with Male and Trinity, huh? Sounds like you have more company up there than you thought.

 

By the way ... I never said Mayfield would have beaten Breathitt. I simply think it's ridiculous to think Breathitt would have beaten Mayfield soundly ... there's no evidence to back it up.

 

We'll never know whether Breathitt would've beaten a team of the strength and caliber of Mayfield. They never played one.

[westsider]

Originally posted by EKU_05

And thanks for echoing my sentiments on the Russell game. In another thread I said they were by far the second best 2A team, and I was told what would Mason County say to that, well I think 2-0 against Mason County last year is proof enough. Mason had one of the state's top offenses and Russell didnt have a problem shutting it down, then for Breathitt to pretty much score all 28 points in the equivalent of one half of football shows how awesome the Bobcats could be when that offense was clicking.

 

 

Russell beating Mason 12-7 and 11-8 (with neither game at Mason) makes them the second best team in 2A, but not "by far" ... they were one play away from losing either game.

 

Breathitt didn't score 28 points in the equivalent of one half. They scored 21 at most ... the last TD came when they were awarded the ball at the 10. Two teams scored 28 on Russell in regulation.

[oneijoe]

"They never played one."

 

 

I think you're DEAD WRONG, westsider... Personally, I think they beat THREE quality teams in the playoffs and ONE on a hot run.

 

Although I give the edge to Mayfield, I think Russell would have given the Cardinals all they wanted last year. You really ought not underestimate Russell because of ONE bad game vs. Ashland. Losing to Portsmouth West (OH) was NO dishonor at all. Portsmouth W. vs. Ironton has gone to Portsmouth W. the last few years.

 

Evaluating a team based on ONE particular bad game is really weak. It could lead someone into thinking Boyle Co. wasn't what they are.

[westsider]

I'll grant you that Russell was a good team ... but at Mayfield's level? I know about Portsmouth West and Mason County. But you have to count the Ashland loss, too.

 

People seem to forget that Mayfield beat Hopkinsville, Paducah Tilghman, Evansville Mater Dei, Danville and Beechwood ... they didn't just show up in the finals untested and unproven. In terms of power ratings and performance vs. strength of schedule, Mayfield comes out ahead.

 

Even if you stipulate that Russell was a Mayfield-level team, Breathitt barely beat them at home. That hardly explains why Breathitt would take 7 out of 10.

 

As for "they didn't play one" ... I stand by my statement.

[The Scribe]

Since they didn't play head to head, we can only play the game on paper.

 

Mayfield, a 1A school, played nine 1A schools (playoffs included) and won by an average of 28.4 points. Their 1A opponents had a combined record of 63-37 (.630) -- the losses to Mayfield were not included

 

Breathitt County, a 2A school, played one 1A school -- Hazard -- and beat them by 42 points. Hazard was 7-5 (.583)

 

Mayfield played one 2A school -- Evansville Mater Dei, a 2A Indiana school -- and beat them by 13 points. Mater Dei was 7-4 (.636).

 

Breathitt County played 11 Class 2A schools (playoffs included) and won by an average of 39.3 points. Their 2A opponents had a combined record of 76-43 (.638) -- the losses to Breathitt were not included.

 

Through here, you'd have to say the two are fairly even against 1A and 2A schools. Here is where they seperate.

 

Mayfield played two Class 3A schools -- Hopkinsville and Paducah Tilghman -- winning by an average of six points. Those teams were 20-5 (.800)

 

Breathitt County also played two Class 3A schools -- Knott County Central and Harrison County. While their average margin of victory was 35 points, those teams were 8-13 (.380).

 

Mayfield played a pair of down 4A schools in Marshall County and Jackson North Side (Tenn.) -- winning by an average of 35 points. Those schools were 6-13 (.315).

 

Breathitt County played one 4A school -- North Hardin -- winning by 36 points. NH was 7-3 (.700).

 

Overall Schedule Strength

 

Mayfield played six opponents in a higher class than them

Breathitt played three in a higher class, yet their opponents overall record are similar

 

Mayfield 101-64 (.612) -- losses to Mayfield not included

Breathitt 98-61 (.616) -- losses to Breathitt not included

 

 

Based on this, I give a slight advantage to Mayfield since their record came against larger schools, including two out of state teams who play in tough conferences.

[oneijoe]

scribe said:

"I think it proves that 1A teams are playing up more, just playing some of the weaker 3A schools."

 

Up more than 2A??... that's not what your numbers said.

 

Your linked post said "Class A teams were 22-21 against Class 3A, while Class 2A was 37-24 against Class 3A." and "Class A teams were a surprising 8-10 against 4A teams. Class 2A was 18-8 against 4A schools."

 

By my count 1A played 61 games vs. 3A and 4A, while 2A played 87 games vs. 3A and 4A. In that comparison, 1A went 30-31 (0.492) vs. 3A and 4A, while 2A went 55-32 (0.632). This argues rather strongly for 2A.

 

LOL, the only way your statement holds true is to give 1A credit for playing "up" vs. 2A.

 

Of course, if you do that you've ALREADY answered the question the thread's subject asks with a "2A was stronger"....

[oneijoe]

Mayfield played six opponents in a higher class than them.

 

First off, Mayfield played FIVE opponents higher in class (unless your earlier numbers were wrong). ONE of those you're counting is a 2A opponent. I'm not sure how this argues for a "slight Mayfield advantage" when we're trying to do a head-to-head comparison.

 

I'll acquiesce to your using the 2A opponent if you'll recognize that 2A was superior to 1A.

 

-otherwise- (you can't have it both ways )

 

That leaves Mayfield with FOUR opponents vs. 3A and 4A, in which the opponents went 94-60 (0.610), whereas Breathitt Co.'s 3A and 4A opponents were 98-61 (0.616).

 

I see NO ADVANTAGE whatsoever to Mayfield in this number crunching... LOL, the two teams are within 0.006 on opponents' winning %, with BREATHITT CO. having the very slight advantage.

 

BTW.... Where is "Black Gnat"????

[The Scribe]

Originally posted by oneijoe

scribe said:

"I think it proves that 1A teams are playing up more, just playing some of the weaker 3A schools."

 

Up more than 2A??... that's not what your numbers said.

 

I didn't mean that to say more than 2A...I just meant to say that 1A teams are starting to play "up" more than they used to. Obviously, the numbers show 2A plays 'up' more

 

I've always aregued that 2A is stronger than 1A...but I still think the 1A champ could beat the 2A champ head to head. Top to bottom, 2A is much better. 1-10, it would be close, but that's not what the thread is asking.

 

As far as Black Gnat goes, click here

[The Scribe]

Originally posted by oneijoe

Mayfield played six opponents in a higher class than them.

First off, Mayfield played FIVE opponents higher in class (unless your earlier numbers were wrong). ONE of those you're counting is a 2A opponent.

 

Since Mayfield is a Class A team, a 2A opponent would be considered "playing up". The same way a Class 2A team plays "down" to a Class A team, which a Class A team can't do

 

 

Originally posted by oneijoe

I'll acquiesce to your using the 2A opponent if you'll recognize that 2A was superior to 1A.

 

I do think Class 2A was stronger than 1A

 

 

Originally posted by oneijoe

That leaves Mayfield with FOUR opponents vs. 3A and 4A, in which the opponents went 94-60 (0.610), whereas Breathitt Co.'s 3A and 4A opponents were 98-61 (0.616).

 

Mayfield's 3A/4A opponents in 2002 were Marshall County (2-8), Hopkinsville (10-4), Graves County (5-7), Paducah Tilghman (10-3), and Jackson Northside (4-7). That's a 31-24 record. (.563) -- losses to Mayfield not included

 

Breathitt's 3A/4A opponents in 2002 were North Hardin (7-4), Knott County Central (2-8), and Harrison County (6-5). That's a 15-14 record (.517).

 

That's where I give Mayfield the advantage. I'm not sure where you got the 94-60 and 98-61 records for those teams

[westsider]

Here's proof that you just can't look at records when comparing schedules of different teams ...

 

Here are the list of opponents for Mayfield and Breathitt County, using the Cantrall ratings from late in the regular season.

 

Mayfield

A-2A opponents

Fulton County ... 17.6 ...

Fulton City ... 29.5 ...

Ballard Memorial ... 55.8 ...

Murray ... 58.8 ...

Evansville Mater Dei ... NR ...

McLean County ... 29.1 ...

Ballard Memorial ... 55.8 ...

Crittenden County ... 44.7 ...

Danville ... 83.8 ...

Beechwood ... 65.1 ...

3A-4A opponents

Hopkinsville ... 75.6 ...

Paducah Tilghman ... 69.1 ...

Marshall County ... 44.9 ...

Graves County ... 64.6 ...

Jackson North Side ... NR ...

 

 

Breathitt County

A-2A opponents

Fleming County ... 47.1 ...

Hazard ... 39.2 ...

Leslie County ... 44.1 ...

Powell County ... 3.0 ...

Morgan County ... 5.0 ...

Madison Southern ... 46.6 ...

Estill County ... 28.0 ...

Pike Central ... 29.2 ...

Prestonsburg .... 70.8 ...

Belfry ... 65.2 ...

Russell ... 59.8 ...

Corbin ... 53.9 ...

3A-4A opponents

Knott Central ... 8.0 ...

Harrison County ... 62.6 ...

North Hardin ... 78.6 ...

 

Mayfield's 13 rated opponents have an average rating of 52.6 ...

Breathitt's 15 rated opponents have an average rating of 42.7 ...

 

Trust me on this ... if Mater Dei and North Side had Cantrall ratings, Mayfield's average would be even higher

 

What does this tell us? Mayfield played a tougher schedule, primarily because Breathitt plays in a truly weak district.

 

Now, for how they performed ....

 

Mayfield outscored their 13 rated foes by 338 points ... a 26.0 average ... plus 52.6 = 78.6

Breathitt outscored their 15 rated foes by 579 points ... a 38.6 average ... plus 42.7 = 81.3

 

Of course, I wonder how many times Breathitt ran up the score on hapless opponents ... and don't tell me it never happened ... I saw the Corbin game.

 

Mayfield, as any western Kentucky football fan can attest, has a reputation for bending over backwards not to run the score up on its opponents.

 

Bottom line is this ... Mayfield clearly played a better schedule than Breathitt. And a statistical analysis of the teams puts them virtually even with each other.

 

Can we agree on that?

[The Scribe]

Originally posted by westsider

Bottom line is this ... Mayfield clearly played a better schedule than Breathitt. And a statistical analysis of the teams puts them virtually even with each other.

 

Can we agree on that?

 

Well said...I'll buy that