Very nicely done, westsider.... I like the way you did that. I'm not a big believer in ratings, but it seems to work in this case. To sum up; Mayfield's opponents rated 10 points better, but Breathitt Co.'s power rating is 2.7 higher.

 

I'll join the compromise. Maybe we can both say (with our own particular reservations, of course) a 10 game series between Breathitt Co. and Mayfield should go 5-5...??

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I'm not sure where you got the 94-60 and 98-61 records for those teams

 

I used your numbers, Scribe. I took your total "playing up" opponent's record. I then omitted Mater Dei's record from the Mayfield total because they were 2A size. I didn't figure it OUGHT to count when when all of Breathitt's 2A opponents were ignored. If you acknowledge 2A is the tougher class, it struck me as unfair to count as "even" Breathitt's eleven 2A wins vs. Mayfield's nine 1A wins.

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So, in Green Co., eh?? nice.... Gotta love them country names...

Excellent posts guys, especially that last one by you westsider! :thumb:

 

I still stand by my assumption that on a neutral field, a one shot deal, that Breathitt would win and I'd take them 28-14 as I predicted already. Westsider you point out how good of an offense you faced in Tilghman, Hoptown, Danville, and Beechwood...but how many of the above teams pass the ball 40 times a game and have a 1000 yard rushing QB to boot? Mayfield had a tremendous defense last year, in fact I would consider their defense the Roy Jones Jr of KY HS Football... it was the best pound for pound (menaing once you consider the class disparity)... but just from watching both teams in person i think Breathitt would have a speed advantage and be able to stretch the Cardinal thin especially in a one game setting on a turf field...JMO Now if they played game two... I dont think that Breathitt would have any easier time whatsoever, in fact i think in a multiple game setting Mayfield would become the better team as they could adjust to what they were facing. I think the trump card lands in the fact that Breathitt's defense was pretty darn impressive too...

 

Great discussion though, hope I havent offended anyone.

Breathitt ... more speed than Mayfield? Were we watching the same games?

Comparing stats of teams that have no common opposition has major flaws. Two years ago a Paintsville team had mind boggling per game passing stats going into the playoffs and I ended up waching them throw more INTs than completions in the game and a first half running clock playoff loss. The next year Raceland had the huge, huge passing stats and that game was over at halftime too with them having 0 points. Were those teams bad teams? No. Were they good teams? No. They were average teams that excelled at moving the football against opposition of lesser ability thereby compiling huge stats.

 

Again think of your arguments in terms of college football. If a MAC team (let's say Ohio U.) averages 45 points a game throwing the football 50 times and is 10-0 in the MAC would you really want to predict the outcome of a bowl game against Ohio State based on the Buckeyes being 8-2 and only avg. 29 points a game against Big Ten competition?

 

We can give an educated belief based on ALL the data available but it is still just a belief. Half the fun is we will never know.

password, this whole thread has been a BLAST!!!

 

to continue....

 

For your "college conference" example to work here, one would have to accept your subjective opinion of the two teams schedules.

 

While Mayfield's opponents were relatively stronger by 10 power points through the season (not quite the Big 12 vs. MAC, IMO), Breathitt Co. rates higher than Mayfield using the SAME FORMULA.

 

To use your own analogy: Mayfield's schedule may constitute a slightly tougher conference, but Breathitt Co. would get the BCS bid on the committee's point system.

 

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Have you all noticed how this poll is going? I think it's amazing so many knowledgable football people percieve 1A as the equal to 2A while the numbers CLEARLY show 2A's overall superiority.

That's just it ....the numbers do not clearly show superior teams in 2A.

That's just it ....the numbers do not clearly show superior teams in 2A.

 

You say that after Scribe's link that showed 2A had a better record than 1A head to head, vs. 3A, and vs. 4A?!? I'm talking overall, not "top X teams". Look at it yourself (thanks to The Scribe!):

 

http://www.bluegrasspreps.com/showt...&threadid=16320

 

If you won't accept the numbers, there's really not much more to say....

Just to make a point, I really dont put too much stock in any numbers that are based on either the lit or cantrell Ratings,, as I stated in another thread any rankings that had North Hardin rated higher than breathitt County have major issues.

EKU05, power ratings were never intended to be the last word. In the playoffs alone ...

 

Danville was rated ahead of Mayfield. Mayfield won.

 

Corbin was rated behind Bardstown and LaRue County. Corbin beat them both.

 

Owensboro Catholic was rated the best 2A team in the west. They were beaten by Webster County.

 

Highlands was rated ahead of Rockcastle County, but got their heads served to them on a platter when they met.

 

Upsets happen. The best team doesn't always win. That's why the games are played on the field.

 

Just because Breathitt beat North Hardin by 36 points one time, in Jackson, a week after the Trojans were physically whipped by Trinity, doesn't necessarily mean the difference between the teams was that great. If they had played again, the game could've been (and probably would've been) much closer.

 

Appparently, North Hardin did enough on the rest of its schedule to close the gap. I don't see how, but sometimes numbers work that way. Of course, if Breathitt had played a more challenging schedule, the issue may have never been raised.

Originally posted by oneijoe

That's just it ....the numbers do not clearly show superior teams in 2A.

 

You say that after Scribe's link that showed 2A had a better record than 1A head to head, vs. 3A, and vs. 4A?!? I'm talking overall, not "top X teams". Look at it yourself (thanks to The Scribe!):

 

http://www.bluegrasspreps.com/showt...&threadid=16320

 

If you won't accept the numbers, there's really not much more to say....

 

As the analysis of the Mayfield-Breathitt schedules showed, oneijoe, records don't always tell the story. It could be that the overall slate of 3A teams that the 2A schools played was somewhat easier than the list that the A schools played.

 

I know that in western Kentucky, the most successful 3A schools rarely "play down" unless the small-school team is a powerhouse such as Mayfield. So, in effect, you're basing your assumption on how the lower-tier 3A teams fared against smaller schools. I don't think that's the wisest method.

Originally posted by oneijoe

That's just it ....the numbers do not clearly show superior teams in 2A.

 

You say that after Scribe's link that showed 2A had a better record than 1A head to head, vs. 3A, and vs. 4A?!? I'm talking overall, not "top X teams". Look at it yourself (thanks to The Scribe!):

 

http://www.bluegrasspreps.com/showt...&threadid=16320

 

If you won't accept the numbers, there's really not much more to say....

 

oneijoe,

 

I don't think Scribe's breakdown amounts to too much until he finds a way to add power ratings into the mix. I know many of us are not big fans of power ratings but many of us are. I have studied the Cantrall and the LIT ratings for the last ten years and I have almost always found that they do a pretty good job late in the season when quality teams play each other. And, that being the case (my opinion of course), they are the best overall resource we have to make comparisions like this so they must be taken into account.

 

Scribe? Please do some number crunching, I have both the Cantrall and LIT ratings from late in the season if you need them.

Originally posted by oneijoe

That's just it ....the numbers do not clearly show superior teams in 2A.

 

You say that after Scribe's link that showed 2A had a better record than 1A head to head, vs. 3A, and vs. 4A?!? I'm talking overall, not "top X teams". Look at it yourself (thanks to The Scribe!):

 

http://www.bluegrasspreps.com/showt...&threadid=16320

 

If you won't accept the numbers, there's really not much more to say....

 

It all comes down to who played who. Last year if I go watch NewCath beat 2A Lloyd and 2A Newport and 4A Campbell County but get thumped by 3A CovCath the numbers say 3A is clearly the superior class. Now substitute 3A Scott for CovCath and 4A Trinity for Campbell County. Think 3A would still be the superior class?

There's no question that 4A is the toughest class. But as far as 1A and 2A goes its kinda tough to judge which class is better. I know Danville and Beechwood could beat a lot of higher class schools.

Guys, I hear you...

 

Here's the problem... If records and power ratings (I'm not a huge fan either) can be selectively ignored as having ANY creedence, discussions on this board could easily become something to the effect:

 

(example ONLY)

"My team is better because we beat Tilghman and Bowling Green, and you KNOW how good they always are. You only beat Belfry and Rockcastle Co. - they haven't even won a state title!!

westsider...

 

You surprise me. I agreed with your numbers, NOW you're telling me they're NO GOOD??

 

I know power ratings aren't worth much (I voted that way in THAT poll). I also know any of this stuff we're doing wouldn't mean a hill of beans compared to a face to face Breathitt Co-Mayfield meeting. But that never happened. The number crunching is all we have to make a "best guess" of how that game might have gone.

 

Guys, I'm taking this no more serious than the rest of you. But something objective will always make for a more valid point. IMO, westsider, you did a great job of that on your earlier post. Now, if you could only bring yourself to agree on your OWN conclusion....

 

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Let me make the issue more generic, since no one can agree on particulars...

 

No one seems to doubt 4A is stronger than 3A. No one seems to doubt 3A is stronger than 2A. But for some reason fully HALF of folks responding to the poll believe 2A is weaker than 1A.

 

What evidence there is, weak though it's regarded, indicates the overall strength of 2A is actually closer to 3A than 1A. There's just no good non-subjective evidence to back the opposite perception...

 

I even started another thread asking why this phenomenon occurs.

 

While the thread is about 2A and not "mountain" football, 2A's best football is here. As I'm seeing it, if it ain't in the numbers, it only leaves the kind of prejudicial attitudes "paranoid" EKYians claim exists. Personally, I don't want to believe that. This poll sure doesn't speak well, though.