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Bowling Green at South Warren Predictions/Updates


Who Wins this game?  

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  • Poll closed on 10/01/2021 at 09:30 PM

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Who will win #8?

South Warren and Bowling Green will renew their rivalry this coming Friday night at South Warren and be the eighth time the 2 teams have met with Bowling Green holding a slim 4 to 3 lead in the series.  All games in this series have been at least relatively close for most of the game, except the very first game back in 2017.  The CRAZY, 13-turnover, playoff game last season just after a classic, old-school 10-7 South win just goes to show that you don’t really know what will happen in a rivalry game!

Both teams expect to be in the Championship conversation as South Warren won the 5A Championship in 2018, while BG last won the Championship last season.  South Warren is currently #2 in the BGP rankings and BG was last in at #10, although they could fall out with last week’s loss.

Last Week:  South Warren traveled to Louisville for the second straight week and earned a 20-6 win against a tough Louisville Central team known for their defense.  SR QB Caden Veltcamp passed for 2 first half TDs and SR LB Luke Burton capitalized on a Pick 6, also in the first half, for all the points they would need on this night.

Bowling Green just couldn’t gain any traction against Tennessee visitor Father Ryan dropping their second game in a row 38-14.  The Purples had less than 50 yards on the ground and FR QB Deuce Bailey had about 120 yards in the air for another tough night for the BG offense.  It is the first time BG has had a 2-game losing streak since losing to Warren Central (IN) and South Warren back in 2018.  Bowling Green hasn’t had a 3-game losing streak since 2002 losing to Henderson County, Allen County Scottsville and John Hardin.

This Week:  Anyone paying attention knows South Warren is LOADED this year.  Seniors all over the field with D-1 talent to boot.  Bowling Green took heavy graduation losses after last seasons Championship season.  I know South Warren has had this game circled after last seasons bitter defeat, as they were rightfully the #1 team in 5A going into that game. 

Bowling Green realizes they have not played well the past 2 weeks against very good teams and know they will have to play their best game to have a chance in this one.

What are the keys to the game?  Who wins and why?

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My comment was: "Both teams expect to be in the championship conversation". To that line of thinking, yes I expect BG to keep competing to a championship level. Will that happen this se

Who will win #8? South Warren and Bowling Green will renew their rivalry this coming Friday night at South Warren and be the eighth time the 2 teams have met with Bowling Green holding a slim 4 t

Just for fun.  BG wins in 2 OT as SW misses extra point.   BG - 7 SW - 6  2 OT

South Warren defense will be too much for Bowling Green offense so I think South Warren wins by a few scores.

I didn't realize one of South Warren's scores against Central was a pick 6. Central's defense is impressive holding South Warren offense to 2 touchdowns.

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With the way this season has gone for the Purples, it'll take another turnover fest for this game to go their way. This is South's year.

I found my shovel and dug this up from earlier in the summer. BG's struggles this year may have robbed this game of some of the luster for a broader audience, but I'm sure the furnace is still burning white hot within the two communities. 

 

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I pick South to win this one, but I don't think it will be a blowout. Even though South has done well this season, their offense is not as explosive as you would think. I'm going to throw out some stats.

Through the first 5 games, South's offense has rushed for 527 yards and passed for 783. This averages just 105 yards rushing and 156 yards passing per game. Yet, they have outscored their opponents 156-53. How can this be? One answer, the defense. South's defense has put the offense in position to score multiple times, every game. As a result, the offense will often find themselves starting inside the opponent's 40 yard line. The D has also provided some points as well. 

Here is what South's Defense has allowed so far this year:

North Hardin       Rush: -6     Pass: 92

Hendersonville    Rush: 257  Pass: 87

Gibson Southern Rush: 5      Pass: 135

Eastern Louisville Rush: 38   Pass: 11

Central Louisville  Rush: 9     Pass: 116

The average so far is 60.6 yards rushing and 88 yards passing a game. This is with the JV playing around 4 quarters so far and South missing multiple top defensive players over multiple games. That's pretty good, but if you exclude Hendersonville, which was an anomaly, the rush yards per game allowed goes down to 11.5. Eastern and Central Louisville have 2 of the top rushers in the state. The bottom line is that no team in Kentucky can run on South and haven't been able to for years. The defense is built to stop the run and it shows. They've also had 51 tackles for loss in 5 games. Jackson, Burton, Snell and Hudson wreak havoc at the line and in the backfield. South should have 4+ sacks and 8+ tackles for loss against Bowling Green. I don't think BG's offense can overcome that.

This is going to be a defensive battle. I think you will see the stars of the game on that side of the ball. South will have a big night there, but I also think that Jeremiah Lightfoot will be a major factor. Bowling Green's pass rush is going to disrupt Veltcamp's passing game quite a bit. Nevertheless, he will connect with Willingham and Bell for a few incredible passes.

I am looking for a final score around 20-10.

 

 

 

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20 hours ago, BEChargers said:

Does BG still consider themselves a title contender?

My comment was:

"Both teams expect to be in the championship conversation".

To that line of thinking, yes I expect BG to keep competing to a championship level.

Will that happen this season?  Maybe not, but if they just read the newspaper and this thread no need to even show up the rest of the season. 

I have seen many teams make great strides (and some unexpectedly) during a season and make good runs in the playoffs after struggling some early in the year (the 2014 Graves County team comes to mind here).  Bowling Green has done this before.  Last season they were not expected to win the Championship and found a way.  I think they were ranked #5 or #6 going into the playoffs last season.  I'm not saying this years team is last years team.  But I am saying they can improve from where they are now.

I have a ton of respect for the South Warren program and they are a terrific team this year, but BG still has alot to play for.  And right, wrong or indifferent, no 5A team (save maybe CovCath) has played the schedule BG has.  That is done to benefit from later in the year as no team they will face will be better than the teams they have already faced.  We'll see if that plays out for this young team.  If not, so be it and come back better next year.  BUT still alot to play for this year.

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South is favored, but BG has played the much stiffer schedule and it's a rivalry contest.  If South makes some mistakes I'm not counting the Purples out.  They aren't going to lay down for anyone.  I do think South wins but closer than expected.

SW 17, BG 10

 

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15 hours ago, Purple88 said:

My comment was:

"Both teams expect to be in the championship conversation".

To that line of thinking, yes I expect BG to keep competing to a championship level.

Will that happen this season?  Maybe not, but if they just read the newspaper and this thread no need to even show up the rest of the season. 

I have seen many teams make great strides (and some unexpectedly) during a season and make good runs in the playoffs after struggling some early in the year (the 2014 Graves County team comes to mind here).  Bowling Green has done this before.  Last season they were not expected to win the Championship and found a way.  I think they were ranked #5 or #6 going into the playoffs last season.  I'm not saying this years team is last years team.  But I am saying they can improve from where they are now.

I have a ton of respect for the South Warren program and they are a terrific team this year, but BG still has alot to play for.  And right, wrong or indifferent, no 5A team (save maybe CovCath) has played the schedule BG has.  That is done to benefit from later in the year as no team they will face will be better than the teams they have already faced.  We'll see if that plays out for this young team.  If not, so be it and come back better next year.  BUT still alot to play for this year.

Before the season started I think both SW and BG were in the championship conversation because they both are well coached and have a nice talent base in Bowling Green.  I think the defending state champions are usually considered to be "in the hunt" as it were.  But I think at this point in the season there are very few that would BG a chance at a title this year.  Defense can keep you in a lot of games but that offense just doesn't look like it really has any identity this season.  I like BG and SW so whoever can make a run at Freddie D and Woodford and Southwestern is fine with me.  I just don't see BG with a run this year. 

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6 hours ago, BEChargers said:

Before the season started I think both SW and BG were in the championship conversation because they both are well coached and have a nice talent base in Bowling Green.  I think the defending state champions are usually considered to be "in the hunt" as it were.  But I think at this point in the season there are very few that would BG a chance at a title this year.  Defense can keep you in a lot of games but that offense just doesn't look like it really has any identity this season.  I like BG and SW so whoever can make a run at Freddie D and Woodford and Southwestern is fine with me.  I just don't see BG with a run this year. 

Fair enough.

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