article The 15 Top Performing Counties in Kentucky High School Football

[LoneRanger]

Think of it as a pound per pound...

 

It stands to reason that if you have more people you have a larger talent pool and the championships and success should come with that.

 

These strength ratings are judging everyone on this "pound for pound" basis to see which Counties are doing more with less, doing less with more, or tracking about where they should.

 

Based off where Jefferson County is I would say this stands to reason that on the whole Jefferson County is essentially performing exactly as they should for as large of a city as Louisville is. Conversely, Fayette County seems to be under performing. With where Warren County is ranked it would suggest it is slightly overachieving.

 

It also highlights that smaller areas such as Danville and Mayfield are extremely over performing given the population base they have to pull from.

 

And at this point, with this population/pound for pound info established, is where this study can go even further. Understanding that the common sense argument would be more people/more talent/more production. However that in some areas also means more schools. More schools means resources & support are either spread thinner in the interest of "fair", or a "haves vs have nots" situation. So is MORE actually LESS? In some cases I'd argue yes.

Boyle County makes sense at 1 because you have 2 consistently high performing schoools. Pulaski should similarly rank well.

But in a larger county with several schools is the success spread out or centralized among a few?

After that, comes perhaps the Why Answers.

[ATLCat]

And at this point, with this population/pound for pound info established, is where this study can go even further. Understanding that the common sense argument would be more people/more talent/more production. However that in some areas also means more schools. More schools means resources & support are either spread thinner in the interest of "fair", or a "haves vs have nots" situation. So is MORE actually LESS? In some cases I'd argue yes.

Boyle County makes sense at 1 because you have 2 consistently high performing schoools. Pulaski should similarly rank well.

But in a larger county with several schools is the success spread out or centralized among a few?

After that, comes perhaps the Why Answers.

 

To your point I think Boone County fits that mold the best.

 

Several Big Schools who have no clear cut "top dog" over this 17 year span (more in a second).

 

I would say in the majority of cases this is the exception and not the rule. Most often in a talent pool you will have one or more schools who draw the most from the talent pool and another school(s) will suffer. Just a couple quick examples of this are Barren County and Perry County as smaller/mid size counties.

 

Boyle County is certainly special because you see two schools coexisting at an elite level in a small County.

 

I actually think it is less of resources being spread equally, as much as it is a sum of the ebbs and flows that balances out in other areas. Boone County by and large stays pretty even keel, but usually there is a run where one program takes the lead. Right now for example Ryle is up and Boone County is down, but at one point that was reversed.

 

When I look at Counties like Laurel, Hopkins, and Jessamine I think you see something similar..except unlike Boone County there is never a program who excels to compete for deep playoff runs.

[LCDAWGS19]

Using data from 2000 until the present I have broken down the entire State of Kentucky by County (for those that play football).

 

Reading comprehension, kids...catch the fever.

[colonel-fan]

Wondering how much do out of state kids (West Virginia, Ohio, and Indiana) effect the success rate of border counties?

[ATLCat]

Wondering how much do out of state kids (West Virginia, Ohio, and Indiana) effect the success rate of border counties?

 

Not sure... I think you certainly see certain schools who have gained some key players that are in border Counties.

 

With that said, and pardon my short rant that is not directed at you in any fashion, but I have always been fascinated with the premise that a mythical invisible State Line suddenly makes kids more talented.

 

I would say there are just as many if not considerably more kids and families who cross County Lines to play football as the ones who cross State Lines.

 

A prime example was one off-season when Bourbon County tried to cast stones at Belfry... meanwhile Bourbon had kids from Lafayette, Nicholas County, and Harrison County who had all transferred and were key starters.

[mexitucky]

Wondering how much do out of state kids (West Virginia, Ohio, and Indiana) effect the success rate of border counties?

 

Who in NKY gets kids from Cincy that have made significant impacts? Holy Cross is the only one I know.

[FSfan]

I'd be interested in seeing an update of this list now. I imagine Boyle County is just tightening its grasp on the top spot. Simpson County should be higher now with 2 state titles and 3 regional finals in the three years after this list came out. 

[9068]

In Campbell County Highlands has 23 championships, Bellevue a couple, and Dayton one. Newport Central Catholic has a few too. Maybe I misread that thread.

[Jumper_Dad]

54 minutes ago, FSfan said:

I'd be interested in seeing an update of this list now. I imagine Boyle County is just tightening its grasp on the top spot. Simpson County should be higher now with 2 state titles and 3 regional finals in the three years after this list came out. 

I'd like to see an update too. I completely understand if we don't get one though, that's a lot of work.

I'd be interested to see Pulaski Counties new ranking. Pulaski and Somerset combined have been to I think 10 title games with 2 title wins and several region and semi state games since these were compiled.

[AgainstTheGrain]

21 hours ago, 9068 said:

In Campbell County Highlands has 23 championships, Bellevue a couple, and Dayton one. Newport Central Catholic has a few too. Maybe I misread that thread.

I was wondering the same thing. Definitely more titles than listed.

[Breds82]

Breds have 5. Bc

[ATLCat]

On 12/2/2023 at 7:06 PM, FSfan said:

I'd be interested in seeing an update of this list now. I imagine Boyle County is just tightening its grasp on the top spot. Simpson County should be higher now with 2 state titles and 3 regional finals in the three years after this list came out. 

I would say Boyle continues to lap the field unless their population has seen a significant uptick.

[ATLCat]

On 12/2/2023 at 7:43 PM, 9068 said:

In Campbell County Highlands has 23 championships, Bellevue a couple, and Dayton one. Newport Central Catholic has a few too. Maybe I misread that thread.

You guys are missing a key part of the original post.. data was from 2000 and on when it was applied. Basically it was to give a modern/current snapshot.

"Using data from 2000 until the present I have broken down the entire State of Kentucky by County (for those that play football)."

[ATLCat]

On 12/2/2023 at 8:00 PM, Jumper_Dad said:

I'd like to see an update too. I completely understand if we don't get one though, that's a lot of work.

I'd be interested to see Pulaski Counties new ranking. Pulaski and Somerset combined have been to I think 10 title games with 2 title wins and several region and semi state games since these were compiled.

I searched and searched this weekend but unfortunately could not find the original spreadsheet I had compiled. 

To say my life situation and free time has changed a good bit since this post would be an understatement.. I wish I could dive back into it as there have definitely been some notable changes and also a new 2020 census with more up to date population numbers that could be applied.

 

[ATLCat]

A few general observations that could be made:

- Boyle County's success would definitely only strengthen their case on the high end. Danville has fallen off hard as a program which would buffer out success a tad bit, but the high end Boyle success mixed with a generally small population means I would expect them to remain a firm fixture at the top.

- I would expect Campbell County to have dipped a little. Highlands and NewCath has had some decent seasons during the past six years, but the lack of Finals and Championships would reflect a significant slowing to the pace this County had a jump start on thanks to Highlands dynasty. The heavy population load would have worked against them.

- Breathitt may have dropped a tick or two but probably not far. The low population works to their advantage and the Bobcats did muster a couple deeper playoff runs though the lack of Finals would have hurt them as some other Counties behind saw success.

- Pike County probably would have seen significant growth with Belfry and Pikeville combining for six more titles and a runner-up finish. I would anticipate Pike County being #2 or #3 if I had to guess.

-Johnson would have probably stayed pretty firm near the top and maybe moved up as well. Johnson Central and Paintsville had a couple titles and a handful of runner-ups combined.

- Graves County would most likely stay at #2 as Mayfield had solid continued success. Graves County doesn't have the championship success Pike County has endured during the time, but between the head start in the numbers and the much smaller population it would be tough for Pike County to have caught Graves.

-Fayette definitely would have seen benefit after being easily one of the most underachieving Counties. Frederick Douglass and LCA each bolstered the resume and even Bryan Station added contribution.

- Bullitt also would have benefitted thanks to the Bullitt East title for a County that was deeply into the underachieving designation.

- I would have expected Bell & Greenup to each use some Runner-Up finishes to leapfrog a few smaller Counties ahead of them like Monroe, Rockcastle, and probably Perry. Some ancillary success outside of Bell County and Raceland from teams like Middlesboro and Russell would only help. Pulaski has a decent size population and was a little further down the list, but probably had enough success to make some positive moves as well although I would anticipate it would only be a couple spots.

- Simpson would have received a notable bump as well from a nice window Franklin-Simpson had mixed with the low population.

- I would anticipate seeing Warren County firmly in the Top 15. South Warren and Bowling Green had no shortage of Finals success and deep runs.