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ATLCat

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ATLCat last won the day on September 25

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  1. Dixon with a beautiful highlight reel punt return but coming back for a clear clip.
  2. 36-0 Belfry in 3rd Dixon with 3 TD and a hustle kickoff recovery to set up another.
  3. 1. Trinity is excellent. Maybe even a Top 15 program in the Nation this year. I would take IMG by at least 3 scores, maybe 4. 2. IMG is not done building. They are just now getting to the point where their roster of alumni playing in the NFL basically is proving the model works for what they intended. 3.IMG isn't just a football school. Their model is to be the premier Athletic prep school in many sports. 4. It's only getting started in terms of seeing schools like this as a trend. St. Frances (MD) was on their way to being the Northeastern IMG Academy until COVID hit. 5. As recruiting continues to be emphasized more and more and now with the new transfer rules by the NCAA, expect football to start looking more like basketball very soon. The FBU stuff is becoming more and more like AAU every day in the more prominent states. My nephew's Middle School team (8th and 7th Graders) just finished a perfect season but due to COVID only got to play 6 six games. They are really good and destroyed everyone they played and no other Middle School wanted to play them. They picked up one more game, but it isn't against an actual middle school, it is David Pollock's 12U FBU team. Pollock's all-star team may be younger but he wanted the competition.
  4. The kid has played his guts out. Will District play hurt him if Beechwood running clocks teams and his numbers come across pedestrian as a result? Unless Beechwood makes it a point to feed Hergott, I could easily see him taking a yardage dip while his efficiency numbers further improve. His numbers are sterling from efficiency standpoint already, but that doesn't get voters to pay attention. Only one 300+ yard passing performance and only one 100+ yard rushing performance. IMHO, Hergott's biggest issue is the fact the team ranked #1 in his class has a more recognizable name at QB. Kaiya Sheron will probably get the benefit of doubt over Hergott in voters eyes 10/10 if stats are close. As good as Hergott is and has been, my unfortunate prediction is he will fall more into the discussion of who is the most underrated player in the state instead of the discussion of Mr. Football favorites from the people who choose these type of things.
  5. Yep.. The out of state component of the RPI makes zero sense to me as well. With services such as Maxpreps/Calpreps.. there is no reason why an OOS opponent should be judged as a .500 team playing all .500 teams. This isn't 1984 and we are waiting on a newspaper to be mailed from another state and hoping a score is correct in it. Quality of win to me is the biggest miss of the system and has been since Day 1. If I could waive a magic wand, here are the changes I would pursue: 1. Use Calpreps for a more accurate out of State ranking. If a school schedules an out of state foe, they can submit evidence of classification. Meaning if Ashland wants bonus points for playing a 6A equivalent school when they defeat George Washington, WV... Ashland can submit proof before the game documenting that George Washington's enrollment would make them a 6A school in Kentucky. 2. Three District results are used per team. If you lose a District game it MUST be one of those three results. If you go undefeated only the top three highest RPI value games are used and the lowest value(s) of wins are dropped. For the fourth value, either the team has an option of using the omitted District victory, or they can choose to use for a second time the lowest RPI result from their Non-District schedule. This helps teams who have no choice but to play in five team Districts against weaker competition as opposed to teams who play in stronger Districts. For teams in 3-team Districts (see Hazard/Pikeville). 3. Each result gets a bonus for a neutral site victory and a larger bonus for a road victory. This would need to be a minimal multiplier in conjunction with whatever "Quality of Opponent" value is assigned. Simply put, if Mercer County goes to CAL and beats them it should be weighted more heavily than if DeSales hosts CAL and beats them. 4a. Quality of victory would give a multiplier bonus to each result for wins greater than 3 TD. You cant reward on shear size of victory or that has negative consequences, but beating a team 3 TD's should weigh more heavily than someone else beating them by 7 points. 4b. Same thing for quality of loss, you get penalized more for losing by 3 TD's + than losing by 6-17 points, or losing by less than 6 points. 5a. Quality of opponent needs to be addressed as mentioned above. The first variable I would reward is you get a positive bonus multiplier if the team you defeat reached the seeding round of the playoffs the year before (won their District). That multiplier increases if they won their region or reached the Finals. 5b. On the final calculation, a bonus is awarded for NON-DISTRICT wins versus teams in the Top 5 and Top 10 respectively in their class in RPI. 6. Finally, for teams who are unable to find someone to fill a 10th game, facing teams who forfeit, or in the case of this year face a COVID cancellation. There is a one game exemption where they can choose to either duplicate the value of their "best loss" or their "worst win". COVID exemptions withstanding, if you are unable to play a 10-game schedule it unfairly effects a team since this is a culminative rating.
  6. Hazard has the distinction of being the toughest luck 0-4 team in all of Class 1A. The Bulldogs have faced three ranked teams including 2A Champion Somerset and 1A Runner-Up Paintsville and have nothing to show for their efforts in the win column. Just as Hazard feels confident they can break out for their first win, a COVID cancellation against Harlan County now has them staring down a showdown with yet another top ranked team as District rival Pikeville is the next in line. The Bulldogs are looking to avoid history. They have never started 0-5 in school history. 1977 was the last time Hazard started 0-4, in 1968 they had lost six games until getting their first win, but did have a tie in between. Pikeville returned to form by steamrolling Phelps 54-6, a week separated from having their winning streak snapped at Campbell County. The Panthers are none too happy with the latest RPI rankings that have them second behind Holy Cross, and they will look to march toward claiming that top spot this week. The Panthers balanced offense should pose numerous issues for the Bulldogs. Pikeville leads the overall series with Hazard 31-15-1 and has won 9 of the last 11 meetings.
  7. Top seeding in the District most likely is on the line as Belfry travels to Louisa to face the Bulldogs. Belfry enters fresh off a loss to in heartbreaking fashion to 6A North Hardin. The Pirates played well, but could not secure the victory as they conceded a late TD. Belfry showed a new twist to their offense, but expect the Pirates to return to their bread and butter here. Isaac Dixon failed to find the endzone but did not fail to disappoint as his Mr. Football campaign remains strong. Brett Coleman scored all three TD's from the QB spot and led the Pirates in rushing. After COVID-19 wreaked havoc on Lawrence County's pre-season and the start of their 2020 season, the Bulldogs have came off the mat to secure two impressive District victories including a shutout of a surprisingly stout Magoffin County team and last weeks 1-point nail biter over Pike County Central. Lawrence County now has the inside track to hosting a first round playoff game, and if they knock off Belfry, will all but lock up a District Title. Dylan Ferguson has been exceptional for the Bulldogs in their first two victories and Belfry has not exactly been a brick wall against power running so far. The Pirates are expected to start getting some key players back healthy this week and in the coming weeks. DE/LB Rudy Blackwell has a bright future for Belfry and was a prominent part of the defense last year before being lost in the Semi-Finals with a knee injury, he will play his first snaps this week. Seth Mounts is nearing a return at the MLB spot and the D-1 prospect has to be itching to put the pads back on.
  8. If you throw out Belfry's last possession of each half. One which they just essentially kneeled on the ball and the other where they heaved three passes in desperation, essentially Belfry scored on their last three possessions and three of five possessions total. One of those two failed possessions started at the 2 yard line and the other was doomed by a fumble on the option that Belfry recovered for a deep loss that got them behind the sticks. I will say, this was not necessarily a red flag for NH. Belfry brought it with the Dixon at FB wrinkle and with Coleman carrying the ball as a primary threat. The fact the Trojans didn't allow a gain of probably 30+ yards is a testament actually. Outside of maybe Trinity, I am not sure any other defense in Kentucky would have been able to fair much better with the way Belfry was executing as a complete shock in that instance. There were some tackles on Dixon that probably would be long TD's for 99% of teams. Here are his and Coleman's highlights as an example of what that defense was up against : https://www.hudl.com/video/3/6313407/5f81bed2bd755c0ab8f19a1e https://www.hudl.com/video/3/6096836/5f832deb7bdd950bc4ad7808
  9. Only one State Champion, 5A CovCath, ended the season as the #1 seed. Notable misses: 3A Champion Belfry- #6 seed 6A Champion Trinity- #4 seed I would argue those two teams also best summarize the flaw in the RPI system. These are two teams who typically schedule UP and OUT. Meaning they will play competition stronger than the peers of their class and play outstanding out of state competition. The RPI struggles with properly accounting for both of those factors. Instead it rewards teams like KCD (1A #1) and Paducah Tilghman (3A #2) who find that MIDDLE IN sweet spot. If you play quality in-state teams of similar or slightly larger size that are not necessarily elite, but win more than they lose, you will greatly benefit. I have said before, but the greatest advice to scheduling for RPI is: 1. Don't play out of State unless you know you will win. 2. Don't play down unless you know you will win. 3. Find the teams who do well at #1 and #2 and play them. 4. Hope you aren't stuck in a large district with bad teams you have to play. 2019_RPI_11_4.docx
  10. Day after thoughts: - I loved what Belfry's staff did last night big picture. The Pirates backfield pieces simply have not summed up to enough of a threat outside of Dixon and the Pirates have not had that traditional FB they can ride when the going gets tough. They basically did a 2-man game with Dixon at FB and Coleman running the ball from QB and it was a thing of beauty. Coleman showed he is a bad, bad man and Isaac Dixon may have had to grind for yards, but it was the most impressive 24 for 130 I think I have ever seen. Not sure there is another team outside of Trinity who could have held him from a bigger statline but NH's pursuit speed and exceptional gang tackling saved big plays. - Special Teams is the great X-factor in High School Football. Belfry probably was the better team most of the night but Special Teams swung the game and proved the difference. If you want to beat Belfry in the playoffs this is definitely the first part of the game you can make up ground. - The RPI system is flawed. Belfry in the end gains less from losing to a Top 10 overall team in Kentucky by 1-point than if they would have scheduled a team like 5A Whitley County and won by 50. I continue to think there needs to be more weight to strength of victory or strength of loss. - North Hardin LB Michael Lunz= Most underrated player in Kentucky. I know he is a D1 guy, but he should have higher offers and much more notoriety. That guy is a machine and doesnt miss tackles.
  11. Photo Courtesy of Ray Justice, Isaac Dixon is a dude! Also a good look at belfry's sharp new uni's.
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