Possible Icing Event to end the upcoming week

[nWo]

As we enter into February portions of Kentucky could see a freezing rain/icing event from 1 am EST/12 am central Thursday through 10 am EST/9 am central Friday. I'm posting this now because this could be a significant event for some. Especially western Kentucky and along the Ohio River up to the Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky areas. Now, this is not an official forecast. I just wanted to get the information out so those who want can start preparing.

I'm just using the GFS tonight. I will do it with other models starting tomorrow. First here is what the GFS Radar is showing.

 

The temperature map shows the temperature difference in front of and behind the low-pressure system as it passes over Kentucky. There could be an almost 40-degree difference in front of and behind the cold front after the low moves out of Kentucky.

 

 

This shows the possible freezing rain/ice accumulations. This is for public information only and not an official forecast.

 

 

Check back tomorrow for a more detailed outlook.

 

 

[DragonFire]

[sportsfan41]

Apparently The Weathe Channel thinks the temperature will be colder.  Current forecast I looked at earlier has Independence getting 3-5 inches of snow during the day and then another 5-8 inches that night. 

[rjs4470]

28 minutes ago, sportsfan41 said:

Apparently The Weathe Channel thinks the temperature will be colder.  Current forecast I looked at earlier has Independence getting 3-5 inches of snow during the day and then another 5-8 inches that night. 

That’s what I’m seeing on my app. The high has dropped from 50’s to 30’s. Just yesterday it was calling for an inch+ of rain.

[nWo]

This situation appears that it will be a significant winter weather event. Anyone would be making a mistake if they focus on one aspect of the possible wintry precipitation 5 days before the event. Where the 540 MB line is will be very important. The Pole side of the line will see snow. On the equator side of the line will be freezing rain/ice to rain. 

[nWo]

9 hours ago, sportsfan41 said:

Apparently The Weathe Channel thinks the temperature will be colder.  Current forecast I looked at earlier has Independence getting 3-5 inches of snow during the day and then another 5-8 inches that night. 

 

8 hours ago, rjs4470 said:

That’s what I’m seeing on my app. The high has dropped from 50’s to 30’s. Just yesterday it was calling for an inch+ of rain.

There's not much agreement in the modeling data right now. I've seen anywhere from no snow upwards of around 20+ inches. On the freezing rain/ice, I've seen up to 1-2 inches of accumulations especially in the Cincinnati/NKY area with 10 inches of snow on top of that. 

[ChickenWyngz]

 I love snow anytime I can get it but you can keep that ice! Ice absolutely ruins life.

[nWo]

Sunday evening update:

As of this evening, both the GFS and EURO are showing a possible significant event starting early Thursday morning before ending Friday evening. At the time of this writing, the main area of concern is mainly near and along the Ohio River. This is where the transition zone could quite possibly be set up and cause a major freezing rain event. Let's talk about the transition zone. You've heard me mention the 540 line. This line is where the leading edge of the atmosphere is cold enough up to around 18,000 feet to turn precipitation into snow. The transition zone is the area between the 540 MB line and the 546 MB line. If the precipitation is on the equator side of the 540 MB line it is predicted to be rain. The map below shows this. The blue arrows show the 540 MB line and the red 546 MB line.

 

The transition zone will be very important for this system. This is where some warm areas will try to rise over some cold air changing the frozen precipitation back into the rain. The cold air below the warm will not be thick enough to change the rain back over to snow. It will become freezing rain. Therein lies the problem. 

Now let's look at the 12z run of both the GFS and EURO models. The period covered is from 4 am EST/ 3 am central Thursday to 7 pm EST/6 pm central Friday.

 

The GFS

 

The temperature map shows the warm moist air being brought into Kentucky by a low-pressure system. Temperatures could rise into the low to mid-60s before the cold front moves through.

 

The Euro is showing something similar but a tad bit north of the GFS.

 

 

While it is too early to make any predictions on possible accumulations I just want to show everyone what I'm seeing. These are not to be taken literally just for information purposes. 

 

GFS

 

 

The EURO

 

 

 

 

While making this post I received an email from the National Weather Service-Louisville office. It states in part that a large and significant winter storm is expected to impact much of the central U.S. From mid to late week time frame. As I said it is too early to say what type or how much accumulations one can expect. It depends on what track the storm takes. Keep checking back for updates as we get closer to the event.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[nWo]

I received this from the National Weather Service-Louisville office this morning.

[sportsfan41]

6 hours ago, nWo said:

I received this from the National Weather Service-Louisville office this morning.

Some of the snow totals up in Ohio and Indiana are crazy high. 

[nWo]

19 minutes ago, sportsfan41 said:

Some of the snow totals up in Ohio and Indiana are crazy high. 

Keep a close eye on it. I believe you live in the northern Kentucky area. I've noticed a modest move towards a more southerly track for this system in a couple of this morning runs. This could indicate a track that could possibly bring some the of heavy snow to Kentucky. We'll have to wait and see. I'll be back later today with an update.

[nees1212]

NKY will only see rain.  I loaded up my wood rack last night in advance of this storm, so that means it'll shift north and we'll get just rain.  

[okie1]

14 minutes ago, nees1212 said:

NKY will only see rain.  I loaded up my wood rack last night in advance of this storm, so that means it'll shift north and we'll get just rain.  

That's Scientific thinking...and seems to generally work! LOL

[sportsfan41]

1 hour ago, nWo said:

Keep a close eye on it. I believe you live in the northern Kentucky area. I've noticed a modest move towards a more southerly track for this system in a couple of this morning runs. This could indicate a track that could possibly bring some the of heavy snow to Kentucky. We'll have to wait and see. I'll be back later today with an update.

Yeah this one seems like it could be really hard to forecast especially along the Ohio River. 

[nWo]

Monday evening update:

We have the makings of a major winter storm that will hit Kentucky and some of the surrounding states. This storm could be of historic proportions. The system is starting to come together and will start to affect portions of Kentucky late Wednesday as rain. A low-pressure system will move towards Kentucky from Texas. The low will bring moist warm air from the Gulf with it. Thursday evening arctic air will move towards Kentucky from the northwest. It will collide with Gulf moisture turning it first into freezing rain and then snow.

I'm showing the GFS and Canadian tonight. Both are showing the storm tracking further south than yesterday. If that trend continues more of Kentucky will receive accumulating snow along with freezing rain/ice accumulations. 

First the Canadian, the period covered is from 7 pm EST/ 6 central to Saturday 1 am EST/ 12 am central. The Canadian differs from the GFS by having lower accumulation totals. It has more freezing rain than snow. The totals shown on each map are not to be taken as a forecast. They are just for information only at this time. Things will change between now and the start of the event. 

 

 

 

 

The GFS has the change over starting a little later at around  10 pm EST/9 central Thursday and lasting until around the same time on Friday. The GFS has the snowfield much further south than it did this morning.

 

 

 

 

 

 

I want to explain the difference between the freezing rain accumulation maps above and the ice accumulation maps below. The ice accumulations show the amount of ice on elevated surfaces like bridges and power lines. The freezing rain map shows the possible total freezing rain.

 

 

 

This shows what could happen if an area receives the totals on the left.

 

Everyone should be preparing for this storm now. The next update will come tomorrow.