College Football Playoffs - Who figures to make it?

[futurecoach]

1 hour ago, Walter said:

ESPN Power Rankings:

1. Georgia

2. Michigan

3. Cincinnati

4. Alabama

5. Oklahoma State

6. Notre Dame

7. Ole Miss

8. Baylor

9. Michigan State

10. Ohio State

Not sure Ohio State all the way down at 10 makes sense considering they beat Michigan State 56-7... I think they're probably at 5 or 6 in the CFP Rankings on Tuesday.

More likely 7th for Ohio State as they most likely will be behind Oklahoma State and Notre Dame who will be 5 and 6. 

[futurecoach]

10 hours ago, Bluegrasscard said:

If the championships go by the chalk it should be easy. 

 

Georgia, Michigan, Cincinnati and Oklahoma State. 

Why not ND - Two score loss, at home, to a top team.  Best win - #18 Wisconsin.  However this win was heavily diminished today with Wisconsin losing to Minnesota and not going to the championship game.  ND will not have a win against a top 20 team. 

Why Oklahoma State - Close loss to in conference Iowa State AT Iowa State.  Conference play on the road can lead to these things.  But with a second win over ranked Baylor OSU would have three (3) wins vs. top 20 teams. 

Its not ND's fault (directly) that the traditional powers it schedules are down or that the ACC is a dumpster fire.  But that is the case.  A win over a fading Wisconsin does not match OSUs record against ranked teams.  If OSU wins next week and the committee still takes ND, it will be a very bad look.  

 

 

Notre Dame wouldn’t be in over a Big 12 Oklahoma State team. It honestly probably wouldn’t even be much of a debate foe the committee. Notre Dame definitely needs help, but honestly they could get it. Bama, Michigan, Oklahoma State, and UC all have tough title games. With how this season has gone, it wouldn’t be crazy to see 3 out of 4 of those teams lose. Which is probably what Notre Dame would need to happen to get in. 

[Jumper_Dad]

If it goes "Chalk" next week, except for Alabama beating Georgia, this is what 538 predicts each teams chance will be. 

So the obvious question would be, does a 1-loss UGA deserve to be in over an undefeated UC? That appears as if it would be the only question in that scenario, as the other three teams look to be locked in if they win next week.

[Walter]

Georgia is in regardless of what happens in the SEC championship because of how dominant they've been.

The crazy thing though is that their resume really isn't that impressive. They have a win over a 3 loss Clemson at #23 and 4 loss Arkansas at #25 but that's it. 

If they lose, Cincinnati would actually have better wins over #5 Notre Dame and #24 Houston. 

Oklahoma State would be the team left out if Bama wins, IMO. I don't think they put a one loss B12 team in over undefeated UC.

[rjal]

1 hour ago, Jumper_Dad said:

If it goes "Chalk" next week, except for Alabama beating Georgia, this is what 538 predicts each teams chance will be. 

So the obvious question would be, does a 1-loss UGA deserve to be in over an undefeated UC? That appears as if it would be the only question in that scenario, as the other three teams look to be locked in if they win next week.

Of course they would.   Not even close.  Georgia has a much higher strength of schedule and while it is obviously tough to go undefeated in any division the AAC is a joke compared to the gauntlet Georgia ran. The only thing UC has going for them is a bigger win in Notre Dame.  

[Jumper_Dad]

16 minutes ago, Walter said:

Oklahoma State would be the team left out if Bama wins, IMO. I don't think they put a one loss B12 team in over undefeated UC.

I'm not as sure of this as you are. 3 top 10 wins would look very good on their resume'.

[Walter]

17 minutes ago, rjal said:

Of course they would.   Not even close.  Georgia has a much higher strength of schedule and while it is obviously tough to go undefeated in any division the AAC is a joke compared to the gauntlet Georgia ran. The only thing UC has going for them is a bigger win in Notre Dame.  

Let's not confuse the SEC East with the SEC West. Georgia beat 2 teams currently in the CFP Top 25 and only one was a ranked SEC team.  I wouldn't exactly consider that a "gauntlet." 

SEC East is pretty average overall. Only reason the majority of the teams are bowl eligible is because they load up on 3 low level FBS/FCS to pad the win column. 

 

[Walter]

16 minutes ago, Jumper_Dad said:

I'm not as sure of this as you are. 3 top 10 wins would look very good on their resume'.

Oklahoma isn't a top 10 team and won't be when it comes time for the final CFP Rankings. Beating Baylor twice doesn't help them, IMO.

[rjal]

1 minute ago, Walter said:

Let's not confuse the SEC East with the SEC West. Georgia beat 2 teams currently in the CFP Top 25 and only one was a ranked SEC team.  I wouldn't exactly consider that a "gauntlet." 

SEC East is pretty average overall. Only reason the majority of the teams are bowl eligible is because they load up on 3 low level FBS/FCS to pad the win column. 

 

Agreed East is weaker than west but East >>> AAC.  I think it would be very unlikely that UC goes undefeated with Georgia's schedule.  I have seen several SOS but ESPN has Georgia 56 Cincinnati 96.

[Jumper_Dad]

17 minutes ago, Walter said:

Oklahoma isn't a top 10 team and won't be when it comes time for the final CFP Rankings. Beating Baylor twice doesn't help them, IMO.

Most people look at where teams were ranked when they played them, not where they end up.

I think that's how official listings of top 10 or top 50 stats are calculated. 

[Walter]

9 minutes ago, rjal said:

Agreed East is weaker than west but East >>> AAC.  I think it would be very unlikely that UC goes undefeated with Georgia's schedule.  I have seen several SOS but ESPN has Georgia 56 Cincinnati 96.

Who on Georgia's schedule do you think would beat UC? 

UC played the 7th hardest OOC schedule (according to Team Rankings) and finished 4-0 so the conference affiliation stuff really doesn't matter. Talk SOS all you want, but the facts are that if UC wins Saturday, they'll finish with the 2nd best Strength of Record which is a major criteria piece for the committee.

The games they can actually control, they didn't schedule directional schools like the majority of the SEC does in the OOC every year. 

The conference schedule is something that is out of their control so not sure why it is constantly brought up.  I'm sure they would love to play a Big 10 or SEC schedule if given the opportunity.

Cincinnati has played two top 10 level teams over the past 2 years. One needed a 52 yard FG with 5 seconds left to beat them and the other took a double digit home loss. 

Stop looking at recruiting rankings and conference affiliation to say one team is better than another. They mean nothing when it actually comes time to line up and play the game. UC has plenty of talent to match up against anyone. NFL scouts and those that are paid to evaluate talent at this level agree. 

[Walter]

17 minutes ago, Jumper_Dad said:

Most people look at where teams were ranked when they played them, not where they end up.

I think that's how official listings of top 10 or top 50 stats are calculated. 

I think you're right with regular rankings but with the CFP (which is what matters in this case) I think it is week to week. So a top 10 win one week could be viewed differently two weeks later if that team falls significantly after back to back losses.

Could be wrong on that, but I believe the committee views the wins differently each week compared to how the stats are calculated for SOS and outside power rankings. 

[Walter]

AP Poll this week:

 

[Walter]

Coaches Poll:

 

[sportsfan41]

2 hours ago, Walter said:

Georgia is in regardless of what happens in the SEC championship because of how dominant they've been.

The crazy thing though is that their resume really isn't that impressive. They have a win over a 3 loss Clemson at #23 and 4 loss Arkansas at #25 but that's it. 

If they lose, Cincinnati would actually have better wins over #5 Notre Dame and #24 Houston. 

Oklahoma State would be the team left out if Bama wins, IMO. I don't think they put a one loss B12 team in over undefeated UC.

Also a win over #22 Kentucky, which was ranked as high as 12th this season.