Owensboro vs. Graves County Predictions/Updates

[DevilMayCare]

Eagles seek to scratch a 16 year itch at Rash

Records: Owensboro (10-1), Graves County (9-2)

BGP Ranking: Owensboro (#2 in 5A), Graves County (#7 in 5A)

Series History: Owensboro leads 9-3 all-time

Table Setter: The Red Devils and Eagles rolled their first round opposition to set up one of the most eagerly anticipated - and predictable - district final rematches in the state. The #1 and #3 scoring offenses in 5A have lived up to their billing in district play, surpassing the 50 point mark a combined eight times in twelve times. Owensboro hasn't been below 35 all season, with their low mark coming in the 35-28 win over Graves County on October 16th.

Turnovers played a pivotal role on the rain soaked field that night in Mayfield. Five Eagles possessions ended with a turnover and Owensboro is as good as anyone in the state at turning those into points. The Red Devils' uncanny knack for finding the endzone on defense and special teams showed up against Graves in the form of a kickoff return and pick-six. The Eagles battled back from a two score deficit to even the game at 28 all in the fourth quarter, but Owensboro's offense came up clutch with a game winning drive inside the final minute. 

With the wet conditions, both teams rode their workhorse running back to great effect that night. McKee and Barksdale combined for 369 yards and six touchdowns on 63 carries. 

The Owensboro win means the Eagles must make the haul to Rash Stadium this week, a place Graves County hasn't won since 2005. With dryer conditions predicted on a turf surface, we could be looking at an all-together different type of game. But the result should be similar to the first one - a highly competitive four quarter affair between two great teams.

[Purple88]

I think Owensboro wins, but I think Graves County will come and leave it all on the field.

I expect this to be close.  I remember the Graves County upset of BG in 2014.  They are capable.

[BlueRaider]

After last year and this year's game it almost seems as if there is a mental block that Graves has with Owensboro. I think they could beat them and they definitely have the offensive weapons to, but I'm not sure how much the kids are up to it. Either way I expect a tight one. Good luck to both teams!

[gcbleedblue]

I expect a lot of points. Because of the points scored this could be a 2-3 td game in either direction, but it will be back and forth. Team with the less mistakes wins IMO. 

[Brown]

Is there a better, higher rated match for the 2nd round in the entire state?  #2 vs #7?  Two great offenses, two great running backs.  Who ever wins this will be to the semis.  I think O will be ready - tons of playoff success and experience with this group.  But as @gcbleedbluesays turnovers will be a premium.  If both teams don't turn it  over I like Owensboro at home.  Owensboro has a healthy Carbon again, great O-line and monster back in Barksdale.  Defense playing much better.  Graves loaded at the skill positions as well - I think both WR's are tough - Grant feels like he's been there forever.  Great athlete.  McKee a great RB as well.  Boone at QB played great since he has taken over and super game vs Henderson.  Owensboro put up 55 vs a good Henderson defense with 2 D1 lineman.  Coaching staff the last several years has been great at Owensboro - constantly moving their scheme as needed.  Great blend to  bring back a strong running game to complement the passing game.  Play calling has been off the charts IMO.  I can see this being another tight game with O breaking away with a couple defensive stops.  That said, neither team could pass  last game due to the rain, so that both teams will have to adjust somewhat to that aspect.

 I'll take Owensboro at Rash. 

Owensboro 42-28

[gcbleedblue]

No rain in the forecast, this is goin to be a completely different game this time around.

Graves is averaging 187 passing yards, while Owensboro is at 154. (This includes the games with Wimsatt)

Owensboro is allowing 118 pass yards while Graves is allowing 119. I think this weather helps Graves as they have the ability to throw the ball. Probably not as much as I wish it did, but better than pouring rain nonetheless. 

[Devils Fan]

Offensively I’m not to worried as long as we take care of the ball, especially since we have Carbon back. On defense I’m a little nervous, the devils can’t come out flat. They need to come out and establish dominance and take the early lead. The possibility of the highs and lows of this game are extreme IMO I can see a couple of scenarios:

High for the Devils 
O 55-21 Owensboro gets 1-2 special teams touchdowns. Offense comes out and does what they’ve been doing all yr.  The defense come out fired up forcing turnovers and takes graves out of it mentally. 

High for the Eagles
G 42-28 Graves comes out strong takes care of the ball gets out to an early lead, forcing Owensboro to be pass heavy which I’m not sure O can be solely reliant on. Along with dominate showing by there offensive line, getting multiple 1st downs on drives limiting the Devils offensive possessions and finishing in the RedZone. 
 

All things equal: 

O 49-35 

[gcbleedblue]

1 hour ago, Devils Fan said:

Offensively I’m not to worried as long as we take care of the ball, especially since we have Carbon back. On defense I’m a little nervous, the devils can’t come out flat. They need to come out and establish dominance and take the early lead. The possibility of the highs and lows of this game are extreme IMO I can see a couple of scenarios:

High for the Devils 
O 55-21 Owensboro gets 1-2 special teams touchdowns. Offense comes out and does what they’ve been doing all yr.  The defense come out fired up forcing turnovers and takes graves out of it mentally. 

High for the Eagles
G 42-28 Graves comes out strong takes care of the ball gets out to an early lead, forcing Owensboro to be pass heavy which I’m not sure O can be solely reliant on. Along with dominate showing by there offensive line, getting multiple 1st downs on drives limiting the Devils offensive possessions and finishing in the RedZone. 
 

All things equal: 

O 49-35 

Pretty accurate but though my bias lenses all things equal GC 42-35 😉

[Brown]

26 minutes ago, gcbleedblue said:

Pretty accurate but though my bias lenses all things equal GC 42-35 😉

Graves is tough.  Neither team got to see the full arsenal last time due to the weather.  I could see it being a shootout to.  This should be a semifinal game instead of round 2.  We are all biased to some degree to our teams.

[theguru]

Paid video:

https://www.nfhsnetwork.com/events/owensboro-high-school-owensboro-ky/gamaffb1381d9

[Brown]

Everyone is healthy for Owensboro tonight.

[wrn1979]

30 minutes ago, Brown said:

Everyone is healthy for Owensboro tonight.

102.7 carrying this one?

[Brown]

WVJS on radio and NFHS on video

[Devils Fan]

I don’t like Carbon on offense if he’s not all the way healthy he’s needed more on defense

 

[Devils Fan]

Boone looking good.