Dave Cantrall's Rating the State from the Lexington Herald Leader

1. Male (5-0) 91.9

2. Trinity (5-1) 90.6

3. Frederick Douglass (6-0) 89.7

4. Covington Catholic (6-0) 89.6

5. Boyle County (6-0) 87.5

6. Johnson Central (5-0) 87.1

7. St. Xavier (4-2) 86.3

8. South Warren (6-0) 86.2

9. South Oldham (5-1) 84.8

10. Bowling Green (3-2) 84.7

11. Highlands (4-2) 83.8

12. North Hardin (6-0) 83.3

13. Somerset (5-0) 83.1

13. Scott County (5-1) 83.1

15. DeSales (3-2) 81.4

16. Owensboro (5-1) 80.9

17. Lexington Catholic (4-2) 80.8

18. Ballard (3-3) 80.5

19. Central Hardin (5-0) 80.4

20. Belfry (3-2) 80.0

20. Manual (4-1) 80.0

22. Louisville Christian (3-3) 79.8

23. Mayfield (5-1) 79.5

24. Simon Kenton (3-3) 78.9

25. Franklin County (6-0) 78.4

Rating the State

So what do you think, have the Cantrall Ratings nailed it or is this just more magic number soup?

My thinking is it looks pretty good at the top but after that it gets hard to say.

Any way you cut it, it appears 2019 is a down year for high school football in Kentucky.

Thoughts? Agree? Disagree?

Only issue I have is the numeric value. Not a 1 point difference between Frederick Douglass and Trinity, unless Frederick Douglass improved significantly since there scrimmage with Trinity.

Only issue I have is the numeric value. Not a 1 point difference between Frederick Douglass and Trinity, unless Frederick Douglass improved significantly since there scrimmage with Trinity.

I agree 100%.

The "powers that be" will be quick to point out these numbers are not predicted margins of victory which essentially means the numbers used (e.g. at the top: 91.9, 90.6, 89.7, 89.6) to differentiate the teams have no meaning. But then again, what fun would it be if Cantrall didn't throw some more useless numbers in with his magic numbers used to derive the meaningless numbers.

I think 1-5 look completely accurate, but with several spaces between #2 and #3.

Sorry: I see that point has been made and explained.

I think 1-5 look completely accurate, but with several spaces between #2 and #3.

 

Sorry: I see that point has been made and explained.

Right on TDD!

Not horrible...

I have a hard time putting Covington Catholic ahead of Boyle County. I think CovCath is closer to the other 5A teams at the back of the Top 10 than they are to the heavyweights at the top.

Similarly speaking, since it was CovCath's closest game, I have a hard time putting Lexington Catholic where they are and not giving LCA a sniff. LexCath probably should be lower or out of the Top 20 between their loss to LCA and close wins against Pulaski and Tates Creek.

Pikeville has done enough to be in that mix of the Top 20 as well and probably should be up above Belfry and CAL and possibly Mayfield.

It looks better than most other state rankings I’ve seen. Obviously there are some flaws and things that I’d change, but it’s not too bad. Definitely looks better than the RPI rankings right now.

1. Male (5-0) 91.9

2. Trinity (5-1) 90.6

3. Frederick Douglass (6-0) 89.7

4. Covington Catholic (6-0) 89.6

5. Boyle County (6-0) 87.5

6. Johnson Central (5-0) 87.1

7. St. Xavier (4-2) 86.3

8. South Warren (6-0) 86.2

9. South Oldham (5-1) 84.8

10. Bowling Green (3-2) 84.7

11. Highlands (4-2) 83.8

12. North Hardin (6-0) 83.3

13. Somerset (5-0) 83.1

13. Scott County (5-1) 83.1

15. DeSales (3-2) 81.4

16. Owensboro (5-1) 80.9

17. Lexington Catholic (4-2) 80.8

18. Ballard (3-3) 80.5

19. Central Hardin (5-0) 80.4

20. Belfry (3-2) 80.0

20. Manual (4-1) 80.0

22. Louisville Christian (3-3) 79.8

23. Mayfield (5-1) 79.5

24. Simon Kenton (3-3) 78.9

25. Franklin County (6-0) 78.4

 

Rating the State

 

So what do you think, have the Cantrall Ratings nailed it or is this just more magic number soup?

 

My thinking is it looks pretty good at the top but after that it gets hard to say.

 

Any way you cut it, it appears 2019 is a down year for high school football in Kentucky.

 

Thoughts? Agree? Disagree?

I agree with @Tigerpride94 in the difference between Male and Trinity and the rest of the state is large I watched the entire Trinity/Douglass scrimmage. If you want to keep Male/ Trinity at 91 and 90 then make Douglass at 65-70 and have everyone else go on from there.

I agree with @Tigerpride94 in the difference between Male and Trinity and the rest of the state is large I watched the entire Trinity/Douglass scrimmage. If you want to keep Male/ Trinity at 91 and 90 then make Douglass at 65-70 and have everyone else go on from there.

Right, but again the most important part here is the numbers are meaningless.

Top three look good.

The next 6-7 are interchangeable or tied for fourth.

Boyle County should be #3 I don't think Frederick Douglass or Covington Catholic is better than Boyle County.

I'm still bitter about our poor showing at Male. This was a shot at a special season, and we messed the bed. Vanilla play calling, and giving up too much on predictable plays. Well, we'll see them again, but the pressure sure is on now.

I feel like Scott Co is way too low. South Warren is a little high. Johnson Central is too high, they are good but Scott Co would beat them by multiple scores.

I feel like Scott Co is way too low. South Warren is a little high. Johnson Central is too high, they are good but Scott Co would beat them by multiple scores.

I don't know about that. Scott County's o-line doesn't seem as strong as in previous years.

I feel like Scott Co is way too low. South Warren is a little high. Johnson Central is too high, they are good but Scott Co would beat them by multiple scores.

I’m curious as to why you think this? Is it because of JCs predominantly one sided offense?

I don’t know if JC is the 6th best team in the state, but their showing against Lafayette was much better than Scott County’s. I’m sure the Cardinals didn’t bring their best performance, but JC handled the Generals rather easily.