"Simply, Adam Dunn is not a run producer"

[Latch]

Guys go into a funk and here we go again. Look at the runs he produces (nothing to do with home runs), take him off the team, and you lose 1 run a game.

 

 

I agree somewhat. He over his career has had good stretches and bad stretches. It's easy too look at it both ways. One one hand nobody on this team hits for the power or gets on as frequently. On the other hand nobody strikes out as much. The problem is people want Dunn to get the hit w/ guys on base, or at the very least make contact. IMO he can not get paid $12-15M a year to be a 2 hitter who doesn't put the ball in play enough.

 

 

When exactly did he sit a game w/ the back spasms? Isn't that pretty much the same time that the slump started?

[goherd96]

Yes he produces runs, but I am not convinced he produces when it counts. Until someone shows me he is a better hitter than the guys listed with runners in scoring position (especially when the game is in doubt) I will not be swayed...

 

I will agree that he is not the only problem the Reds have on the offensive side right now. The whole team isn't hitting well and until that changes, the Reds have no chance in the division.

[h.s.sportsrbest]

 

When exactly did he sit a game w/ the back spasms? Isn't that pretty much the same time that the slump started?

Yes.

[stickymitts]

Let's come back to this in 3 years and we'll decide then...

[AverageJoesGym]

Alfonso Soriano's last three years:

 

168

170

140

 

Soriano's numbers are a little skewed. He's usually a leadoff hitter which limits his RBI chances. Here's a couple of numbers that Reds fans might find interesting. Austin Kearns last year 148 Runs produced, Felipe Lopez last year 139 Runs Produced. Their combined salary 7.4 Million. Like I pointed out before would the Reds be better off with a couple of less prodigious homerun hitters who are more than one dimensional?

[STRIKE3]

Just because Marty says it, doesn't make it so....He produces runs year in and out but can't carry a team, with his average.

[h.s.sportsrbest]

Soriano's numbers are a little skewed. He's usually a leadoff hitter which limits his RBI chances. Here's a couple of numbers that Reds fans might find interesting. Ausin Kearns last year 148 Runs produced, Felipe Lopez last year 139 Runs Produced. Their combined salary 7.4 Million. Like I pointed out before would the Reds be better off with a couple of less prodigious homerun hitters who are more than one dimensional?

...and increases his runs scored chances. It is uneffected by the lead-off spot. That is the beauty of the stat.

 

As far as Kearns, a snapshot of his last three years points out the glaring weakness in him:

 

148

111

51

 

Inconsistent / can't stay healthy. How can you depend on him?

 

Felipe Lopez' last three years look like this:

 

139

159

59

[h.s.sportsrbest]

Over the last 3 years, Dunn has produced 170 runs more than Kearns and 123 more than Lopez. That is a bunch.

 

Last three years:

Carlos Lee -- 519

Dunn -- 480

Soriano -- 478

[AverageJoesGym]

...and increases his runs scored chances. It is uneffected by the lead-off spot. That is the beauty of the stat.

 

As far as Kearns, a snapshot of his last three years points out the glaring weakness in him:

 

148

111

51

 

Inconsistent / can't stay healthy. How can you depend on him?

 

Felipe Lopez' last three years look like this:

 

139

159

59

 

If you lead off you automatically have one at bat per game where you bat with the bases empty. However, the chances are good that you'll still only get the same number of at bats as the rest of the top 4 hitters in the lineup, so it does tend to limit a leadoff hitters RBI chances more than it helps his Runs Scored chances. You used all those other guys last years stats to try and make your point so I thought it was fair to last years stats for Kearns and Lopez. Not even taking Lopez and Kearns into account there are several cheaper, more rounded players out there than Dunn. Dunn's biggest drawback is that he can be pitched to in a big spot, he's got a definate hole in his swing and instead of being forced to pitch around him and put more people on base a pitcher with decent control/stuff and bear down, not give into him and still get him out consistantly. That said he is vital to the current Reds offense but in hindsight I think they might have been better off dealing him for that bullpen help and keeping or bringing in a couple of cheaper, more well rounded options.

[h.s.sportsrbest]

How many of the guys listed in post #22 are making less than Dunn because they haven't had their first big contract yet (Francoeur, for example)? How many are making more than Dunn? Look where Manny is -- ouch.

 

I wasn't using LY's numbers to make any point, frankly, it was Dunn's worst of the last 3. It was just the quickest. If I was trying to make my point, truthfully, I'd have taken the sum of the last three years -- I can promise you Dunn would be higher than the Top 50.

[Latch]

How many of the guys listed in post #22 are making less than Dunn because they haven't had their first big contract yet (Francoeur, for example)? How many are making more than Dunn? Look where Manny is -- ouch.

 

I wasn't using LY's numbers to make any point, frankly, it was Dunn's worst of the last 3. It was just the quickest. If I was trying to make my point, truthfully, I'd have taken the sum of the last three years -- I can promise you Dunn would be higher than the Top 50.

 

 

Have his numbers decreased the last 3 years? I know his OBP and RBI's have so I figure this stat has too. That's another problem fans have. People can say he's entering his prime b/c of age, but that argument doesn't hold as much water as the one that says his numbers continue to drop.

[AverageJoesGym]

How many of the guys listed in post #22 are making less than Dunn because they haven't had their first big contract yet (Francoeur, for example)? How many are making more than Dunn? Look where Manny is -- ouch.

I wasn't using LY's numbers to make any point, frankly, it was Dunn's worst of the last 3. It was just the quickest. If I was trying to make my point, truthfully, I'd have taken the sum of the last three years -- I can promise you Dunn would be higher than the Top 50.

 

You seem to fluctuate between using last year's totals or a 3 year run depending on which set of numbers side with you. If you want to take a look at Manny take a look at the last 3 years like you did Soriano and some others:

146

211

195

[h.s.sportsrbest]

You seem to fluctuate between using last year's totals or a 3 year run depending on which set of numbers side with you. If you want to take a look at Manny take a look at the last 3 years like you did Soriano and some others:

146

211

195

One more time, I'm only using what is easy. I'm not trying to make a point that he is the greatest player of all time, just that he is comparable to other players in his salary range.

 

I don't have the time (nor the inclination) to get 3-year totals on every top tier player in the NL. If I did, again, I'd happily do so. Manny is a $20 million player -- he is clearly top notch.

[AverageJoesGym]

I agree with AverageJoesGym that the "runs produced" stat (du jour) is about the most important stat there is. Last year Dunn produced 151 (99+92-40). That is one run a game, nearly, that he is putting on the board. That puts him at about the Top 50 in MLB. Some players around him:

 

Carlos Delgado -- 165

Frank Thomas -- 152

Jason Giambi -- 168

Vernon Wells -- 165

Magglio Ordonez -- 162

Jeff Francoeur -- 157

Manny Ramirez -- 146

JD Drew -- 164

Torii Hunter -- 153

Pat Burrell -- 146

Scott Rolen -- 167

Alfonso Soriano -- 168

Joe Crede -- 140

Nomar Garciaparra -- 155

Victor Martinez -- 159

Jorge Posada -- 135

 

Some notable Reds players LY:

Dunn -- 151

Phillips -- 123

Edwin -- 117

Griffey -- 107

Hatteberg -- 100

Freel -- 86

Ross -- 68

 

Guys go into a funk and here we go again. Look at the runs he produces (nothing to do with home runs), take him off the team, and you lose 1 run a game.

 

Actually he's not in the top 50, he's not in the top 60. Last year he was tied for 65th place in the majors in runs produced. Here's a list of the players that produced more runs than him last year:

(not in order 2007 salary then runs produced)

Carlos Delgado 14.5 million 165

David Wright 1.25 million 186

Jose Reyes 2.875 million 184

Carlos Beltran 13.5 million 202

Ryan Howard .9 million 195

Chase Utley 4.8 million 201

Jimmy Rollins 8 million 185

Bobby Abreu 15.6 million 190

Edgar Renteria 10 million 156

Andruw Jones 14 million 195

Jeff Francoeur .427 million 157

Dan Uggla .392 million 168

Miguel Cabrera 7.4 million 200

Hanley Ramirez .4 million 161

Nick Johnson 5.5 million 154

Ryan Zimmerman .4 Million 174

Alfonso Soriano 10 million 187

Albert Pujols 12.9 million 207

Scott Rolen 12.3 million 167

Lance Berkman 14.5 million 186

Carlos Lee 11.5 million 181

Freddy Sanchez 2.75 million 164

Jason Bay 3.5 million 175

Aramis Ramirez 9 million 174

Brian Giles 9.7 million 156

Nomar Garciaparra 8.5 million 155

Rafael Furcal 13.7 million 151

Todd Helton 16.6 million 160

Garrett Atkins .4 million 208

Matt Holliday 4.4 million 199

Alex Rodriguez 27.7 million 199

Derek Jeter 21.6 million 201

Johnny Damon 13 million 171

Jason Giambi 23.4 million 178

Troy Glaus 11.5 million 171

Vernon Wells 5.7 million 165

Kevin Youkilis .424 million 159

David Ortiz 13.25 million 198

Melvin Mora 7.75 million 163

Miguel Tejada 13.8 million 175

J.D. Drew 14.4 million 164

Joe Mauer 3.75 million 157

Justin Morneau 4.5 million 193

Torii Hunter 12 million 153

Michael Cuddyer 3.575 million 187

Carlos Guillen 5 million 166

Craig Monroe 4.775 million 153

Maglio Ordonez 13.2 million 162

Paul Konerko 12 million 175

Jermaine Dye 7 million 183

Jim Thome 15.666 million 175

Victor Martinez 3.2 million 159

Grady Sizemore .9 million 172

Travis Hafner 4 million 175

Nick Swisher .4 million 166

Orlando Cabrera 8.5 million 158

Vlad Guerrero 14.5 million 175

Mark Teixeira 9 million 176

Michael Young 3.575 million 192

Gary Matthews Jr. 6.4 million 162

Frank Thomas 5.5 million 152

Adrian Beltre 12.9 million 152

Raul Ibanez 5.5 million 193

 

The ones in bold are some players you might not think would approach Dunn's runs produced numbers. Dunn makes more than 40 of these players. It was stated that he is 54th in salary among major leaguers. He's tied with 5 others for 65th in runs produced, I'm guessing there's 10-20 pitchers that deserve to make more than him so he would appear to be overpriced.

[AverageJoesGym]

On the other hand here's the murder's row of players that produced EXACTLY the same amount of runs as Dunn last year and their 2007 salary figures, note that a team could sign 3 of them and still have over a million to sign bullpen help.

 

Bill Hall 3.1 million 151

Pedro Feliz 5.1 million 151

Chad Tracy 3.0 million 151

Luis Gonzalez 7.1 million 151

Lyle Overbay 1.35 million 151

 

Heck you could spend 2.75 million and get Mark DeRosa who produced 149 runs last year. Again I know Dunn produces a run a game but wouldn't that money be better spent on 2 players that produce near the same EACH for the same money? That would fill 2 holes in the lineup instead of 1.