Johnson Central at Covington Catholic Predictions/Updates

[Cheese]

Well a little shocked at last weeks score between Covington Catholic and Ashland. Johnson Central has dealt with injuries all year and I expect CC to see the healthiest version of Johnson Central in this game. I think Johnson Central wll have a chance to win this game. But should be a fun game to watch. Good luck to both teams. 

[1992Rebel]

Will rain in the forecast help either team?  Wishbones by well disciplined teams are tough to stop. I’m taking CCH in a close one. Should be fun to watch. 

[Colonels_Wear_Blue]

29 minutes ago, 1992Rebel said:

Will rain in the forecast help either team?  Wishbones by well disciplined teams are tough to stop. I’m taking CCH in a close one. Should be fun to watch. 

Looking at the news stations, Channel 9 is currently forecasting showers starting late Thursday and clearing up late Friday with a Friday high temp around 62°. Channel 12 is saying showers starting overnight Thursday/early Friday morning and clearing up late Friday with a Friday high temp around 60°. Channel 5 is currently forecasting scattered showers all day on Friday, clearing up late with a high temp on Friday around 61°.

I think the rain does help Johnson Central a little bit in this one, simply because it's tougher to tackle somebody when they're wet. But the forecast for Friday night looks to bring fairly similar conditions to the weather during the Cov Cath vs. Mason County game, and Pitzer still went 12 for 15 passing for 177 yards and 1 touchdown against Mason County in the rain. Evan did have one of his 4 interceptions on the season against Mason County, though, when he threw an absolute dart to his receiver about 8 yards downfield, and it skipped through the receiver's hands and right into a defender's breadbasket. That was a combination of Pitzer putting a little too much oompf behind the ball and wet conditions for the receiver catching it (I think it was Rodriguez, but I'm not positive of that). Anyway, Cov Cath averages 197 yards passing per game this season, and the rainy Mason County game only cut that down by 20 yards. Johnson Central's defensive backfield need to be prepared for major passing defense, rain or no rain.

[theguru]

Remember everyone, CovCath offers an extremely high quality broadcast for only $10, I just purchased my ticket:

https://www.covcath.org/athletics/can

[DevilMayCare]

JC has four kids they can feed the ball to at any given time, keeping legs fresh. I can see them moving the chains, shortening the game, and putting some points on the board. But CovCath can shift into a higher gear than anyone JC has seen.

I'm smelling another big night for Rodriguez. I didn't think Ashland had anyone that could adequately defend him. I think the same is true about the Golden Eagles. A game like this is where an SEC athlete should stand out.

JC needs to play keep away. A couple of turnovers wouldn't hurt, either.

If that scenario plays out, it could be up for grabs late. If it doesn't, I think CovCath will prove to be at least three scores better tomorrow. 

[Colonels_Wear_Blue]

On 11/15/2023 at 6:55 AM, Cheese said:

Well a little shocked at last weeks score between Covington Catholic and Ashland. Johnson Central has dealt with injuries all year and I expect CC to see the healthiest version of Johnson Central in this game. I think Johnson Central wll have a chance to win this game. But should be a fun game to watch. Good luck to both teams. 

A little bit of numbers study...

The Golden Eagles are the #1 rushing team in 4A football and the #2 rushing team overall in the state. (3A Bell County has them topped by 29 yards this season.) Johnson Central has 3 ball carriers - Carter Conley (1069 yards/7.1 ypc), Christian Barnes (955 yards/5.8 ypc), Logan Music (737 yards/9.2 ypc) - who all have more rushing yards this season than Cov Cath's top rusher, Owen Leen (706 yards/6.6 ypc).

Removing the DeSales quarterback from the scenario, since he's only passed the ball 7 times this season, Cov Cath's Evan Pitzer is tied for the highest pass completion percentage in 4A, going 141 for 192 (73.4%) this season. He's also #2 in 4A for passing touchdowns and is #7 in 4A for overall passing yards (2321). Johnson Central's QB Jacob Grimm is ranked 29th in 4A for passing percentage at 28 for 53 (52.8%), and is tied at #24 in 4A for passing touchdowns. He's also ranked 35th in 4A for overall passing yards (607).

The Colonels are the #4 scoring team in 4A football and #10 scoring team overall in the state, and they're #5 scoring margin in 4A and #13 scoring margin in the state. The Golden Eagles are the #12 scoring team in 4A and are at #9 for scoring margin in 4A. Cov Cath's D also ranks slightly better in points allowed this season, with an average 15.2 points allowed per game compared to Johnson Central's average of 18.8. Johnson Central's defense is slightly better against the rush, with an average of 111 rushing yards allowed per game to Cov Cath's 118 rushing yards allowed, and they only have an average of 105 passing yards allowed per game to Cov Cath's 132 passing yards allowed.

 I'm definitely not expecting this to be any kind of walk in the park for either team.

[theguru]

A little more on the weather, weather.com is showing the rain probably stopping between 6 and 7pm so it should be a fast track if that forecast holds. 

[DevilMayCare]

On 11/11/2023 at 9:35 AM, Cov_Cath_Hwy said:

I know this team beat an Ashland team that hung right with us, but I love our D and specifically our run D with the legit LB’ing corps we have and with the stout D Line play we are getting…..huge games for Big Ben, Tate Kruer, Willie, and lookout for Josh Flood to really establish He is back in this game.  If they lean that much to the run, specifically right up the middle, it could be a long night for Johnson Central.

And that is not even mentioning that Pitzer at QB is just heating up and getting started….Home Field is a huge advantage as well…..Colonels by 2 TD’s

 

I'm sure the Colonels will be well prepared from a film and assignment standpoint, but this is an offense they never get the opportunity to defend. And it's hard to replicate in practice. There may be an acclimation period. Keep in mind, this is JC's identity and has been forever. They execute the bone like a well oiled machine.

I do think CovCath wins - and it may end up looking comfortable on the scoreboard - but I have a feeling Johnson Central is going to give them fits.  

[Colonels_Wear_Blue]

2 hours ago, Colonels_Wear_Blue said:

Cov Cath's D also ranks slightly better in points allowed this season, with an average 15.2 points allowed per game compared to Johnson Central's average of 18.8. Johnson Central's defense is slightly better against the rush, with an average of 111 rushing yards allowed per game to Cov Cath's 118 rushing yards allowed, and they only have an average of 105 passing yards allowed per game to Cov Cath's 132 passing yards allowed.

I decided to go back and do a little more geeking out on stats. I've been saying for a few weeks that if Cov Cath faced Johnson Central I felt like it would end up being a defensive battle as much or more than anything else, so I wanted to look a little deeper into defensive performances. As for the performance of each defense against rushing vs. passing, I'm gonna go ahead and say that the two teams look to be about even. Johnson Central's defense averages 7 fewer rushing yards allowed per game than Cov Cath, pretty evenly matched, IMO, and the teams Johnson Central has played this season have also averaged pretty similarly to the teams Cov Cath has played when it comes to rushing. JC's opponents averaged 173.9 yards rushing per game this season, and Cov Cath's opponents averaged 171.9 yards rushing per game this season.

When it comes to passing, though, Johnson Central's better success defending against the pass is slightly skewed by the fact that their opponents have averaged fewer yards passing per game. JC's opponents averaged 128.1 yards passing per game this season, and Cov Cath's opponents averaged 179.4 yards passing per game this season.

Here are some defensive BLUEGRmetrics to sift through, for those interested.

 

JOHNSON CENTRAL 2023 OPPONENT STATS	Game Outcome	RPI	Total Offensive Yards	Total Rushing Yards	Total Passing Yards	Games Played	Average Offensive Yards P/G	Average Rushing Yards P/G	Average Passing Yards P/G	Average Points Per Game	Total Yards vs. JC	Rushing Yards vs. JC	Passing Yards vs. JC
6A Madison Central (4-8)	28-21 (W)	0.45090	2609	1771	838	12	217.4	147.6	69.8	14.7	135	69	66
1A Pikeville (9-2)	14-21 (L)	0.75021	3106	1816	1290	10	310.6	181.6	129	33.4	245	212	33
3A Belfry (8-4)	20-48 (L)	0.61508	4581	3689	892	12	381.8	307.4	74.3	37	455	370	85
2A Breathitt County (6-6)	41-0 (W)	0.51328	3554	1978	1576	12	296.2	164.8	131.3	33	10	4	6
Dohn Community, OH (0-8)	34-6 (W)		919	543	376	8	114.9	67.9	47	13.1	147	128	19
4A Boyd County (6-6)	53-14 (W)	0.57755	3957	1823	2134	12	329.8	151.9	177.8	28.8	199	12	187
4A Corbin (12-0)	34-6 (L)	0.73314	4074	1646	2428	11	370.4	149.6	220.7	41.6	266	93	173
4A Rowan County (1-9)	43-8 (W)	0.37826	2735	1327	1408	10	273.5	132.7	140.8	13.1	129	52	77
4A Greenup County (6-5)	33-13 (W)	0.56825	3968	2431	1537	11	360.7	221	139.7	29.7	192	185	7
4A Ashland (10-2)	36-33 (W)	0.70837	5049	2919	2130	12	420.8	243.3	177.5	44.8	323	111	212
4A Grant County (3-8)	54-14 (W)	0.40248	2406	1840	566	11	218.7	167.3	51.5	18.7	185	159	26
4A Boyd County (6-6)	28-14 (W)	0.57755	3957	1823	2134	12	329.8	151.9	177.8	28.8	279	46	233
AVERAGES		0.570461	3409.6	1967.2	1442.4	11.1	302	173.9	128.1	28.1	213.8	120.1	93.7

 

COVINGTON CATHOLIC 2023 OPPONENT STATS	Game Outcome	RPI	Total Offensive Yards	Total Rushing Yards	Total Passing Yards	Games Played	Average Offensive Yards P/G	Average Rushing Yards P/G	Average Passing Yards P/G	Average Points Per Game	Total Yards vs. CCH	Rushing Yards vs. CCH	Passing Yards vs. CCH
6A Ryle (8-4)	37-22 (W)	0.5994	4569	1219	3350	12	380.8	101.6	279.2	33.8	323	57	266
5A Highlands (11-1)	35-21 (W)	0.68833	5789	2896	2893	12	482.4	241.3	241.1	47.8	359	273	86
6A Simon Kenton (5-5)	50-12 (W)	0.56225	4504	2188	2316	10	450.4	218.8	231.6	35.2	215	120	95
5A Dixie Heights (5-7)	31-24 (W)	0.51758	4302	2464	1838	12	358.5	205.3	153.2	34.1	284	166	118
2A Beechwood (11-1)	35-31 (W)	0.75264	4720	1455	3265	12	393.3	121.3	272.1	48.6	312	72	240
4A Holmes (0-10)	61-0 (W)	0.32527	1160	956	204	10	116	95.6	20.4	3	82	82	0
4A Grant County (3-8)	56-6 (W)	0.40248	2406	1840	566	11	218.7	167.3	51.5	18.7	101	91	10
4A Harrison County	56-6 (W)	0.50508	4391	1865	2526	11	399.2	169.5	229.6	33	305	78	227
4A Mason County	50-14 (W)	0.53541	3498	1177	2321	11	318	107	211	28.7	227	54	173
6A Campbell County	35-7 (W)	0.47441	3491	1880	1611	11	317.4	170.9	146.5	24.6	222	120	102
4A Greenup County (6-5)	49-12 (W)	0.56825	3968	2431	1537	11	360.7	221	139.7	29.7	196	117	79
4A Ashland (10-2)	35-28 (W)	0.70837	5049	2919	2130	12	420.8	243.3	177.5	44.8	431	226	205
AVERAGES		0.553289	3987.3	1940.8	2046.4	11.3	351.3	171.9	179.4	31.8	254.8	121.3	133.4

🟦 - Held to fewer than team's average per-game total.
🟥 - Allowed more than team's average per-game total.

[Colonels_Wear_Blue]

14 minutes ago, Colonels_Wear_Blue said:

JOHNSON CENTRAL 2023 OPPONENT STATS	Game Outcome	RPI	Total Offensive Yards	Total Rushing Yards	Total Passing Yards	Games Played	Average Offensive Yards P/G	Average Rushing Yards P/G	Average Passing Yards P/G	Average Points Per Game	Total Yards vs. JC	Rushing Yards vs. JC	Passing Yards vs. JC
6A Madison Central (4-8)	28-21 (W)	0.45090	2609	1771	838	12	217.4	147.6	69.8	14.7	135	69	66
1A Pikeville (9-2)	14-21 (L)	0.75021	3106	1816	1290	10	310.6	181.6	129	33.4	245	212	33
3A Belfry (8-4)	20-48 (L)	0.61508	4581	3689	892	12	381.8	307.4	74.3	37	455	370	85
2A Breathitt County (6-6)	41-0 (W)	0.51328	3554	1978	1576	12	296.2	164.8	131.3	33	10	4	6
Dohn Community, OH (0-8)	34-6 (W)		919	543	376	8	114.9	67.9	47	13.1	147	128	19
4A Boyd County (6-6)	53-14 (W)	0.57755	3957	1823	2134	12	329.8	151.9	177.8	28.8	199	12	187
4A Corbin (12-0)	34-6 (L)	0.73314	4074	1646	2428	11	370.4	149.6	220.7	41.6	266	93	173
4A Rowan County (1-9)	43-8 (W)	0.37826	2735	1327	1408	10	273.5	132.7	140.8	13.1	129	52	77
4A Greenup County (6-5)	33-13 (W)	0.56825	3968	2431	1537	11	360.7	221	139.7	29.7	192	185	7
4A Ashland (10-2)	36-33 (W)	0.70837	5049	2919	2130	12	420.8	243.3	177.5	44.8	323	111	212
4A Grant County (3-8)	54-14 (W)	0.40248	2406	1840	566	11	218.7	167.3	51.5	18.7	185	159	26
4A Boyd County (6-6)	28-14 (W)	0.57755	3957	1823	2134	12	329.8	151.9	177.8	28.8	279	46	233
AVERAGES		0.570461	3409.6	1967.2	1442.4	11.1	302	173.9	128.1	28.1	213.8	120.1	93.7

 

COVINGTON CATHOLIC 2023 OPPONENT STATS	Game Outcome	RPI	Total Offensive Yards	Total Rushing Yards	Total Passing Yards	Games Played	Average Offensive Yards P/G	Average Rushing Yards P/G	Average Passing Yards P/G	Average Points Per Game	Total Yards vs. CCH	Rushing Yards vs. CCH	Passing Yards vs. CCH
6A Ryle (8-4)	37-22 (W)	0.5994	4569	1219	3350	12	380.8	101.6	279.2	33.8	323	57	266
5A Highlands (11-1)	35-21 (W)	0.68833	5789	2896	2893	12	482.4	241.3	241.1	47.8	359	273	86
6A Simon Kenton (5-5)	50-12 (W)	0.56225	4504	2188	2316	10	450.4	218.8	231.6	35.2	215	120	95
5A Dixie Heights (5-7)	31-24 (W)	0.51758	4302	2464	1838	12	358.5	205.3	153.2	34.1	284	166	118
2A Beechwood (11-1)	35-31 (W)	0.75264	4720	1455	3265	12	393.3	121.3	272.1	48.6	312	72	240
4A Holmes (0-10)	61-0 (W)	0.32527	1160	956	204	10	116	95.6	20.4	3	82	82	0
4A Grant County (3-8)	56-6 (W)	0.40248	2406	1840	566	11	218.7	167.3	51.5	18.7	101	91	10
4A Harrison County	56-6 (W)	0.50508	4391	1865	2526	11	399.2	169.5	229.6	33	305	78	227
4A Mason County	50-14 (W)	0.53541	3498	1177	2321	11	318	107	211	28.7	227	54	173
6A Campbell County	35-7 (W)	0.47441	3491	1880	1611	11	317.4	170.9	146.5	24.6	222	120	102
4A Greenup County (6-5)	49-12 (W)	0.56825	3968	2431	1537	11	360.7	221	139.7	29.7	196	117	79
4A Ashland (10-2)	35-28 (W)	0.70837	5049	2919	2130	12	420.8	243.3	177.5	44.8	431	226	205
AVERAGES		0.553289	3987.3	1940.8	2046.4	11.3	351.3	171.9	179.4	31.8	254.8	121.3	133.4

🟦 - Held to fewer than team's average per-game total.
🟥 - Allowed more than team's average per-game total.

1) So Johnson Central held Breathitt County's offense to 10 yards in their game?? Breathitt had almost 120 yards against Beechwood this past Friday. 10 yards? TEN??

2) I'm shocked that Johnson Central allowed Dohn Community to have as many yards as they did.

3) Cov Cath's defensive performance last week wasn't their best. I'm sure Coach Brown and company have been doing plenty to let the team know that and to correct mistakes.

4) If I'm Coach Eviston, I may well be logging onto Hudl and studying both of the Boyd County games. Boyd County passed above their average in both games against Johnson Central, and they managed to cut down JC's scoring margin by 25 points in the rematch. 👀

5) If I'm Coach Peck, I'm spending some time reviewing film from the Cov Cath/Highlands game. Highlands is the only team this season that had an above-average rushing game against Cov Cath. 

[gbballfan21]

26 minutes ago, Colonels_Wear_Blue said:

1) So Johnson Central held Breathitt County's offense to 10 yards in their game?? Breathitt had almost 120 yards against Beechwood this past Friday. 10 yards? TEN??

2) I'm shocked that Johnson Central allowed Dohn Community to have as many yards as they did.

3) Cov Cath's defensive performance last week wasn't their best. I'm sure Coach Brown and company have been doing plenty to let the team know that and to correct mistakes.

4) If I'm Coach Eviston, I may well be logging onto Hudl and studying both of the Boyd County games. Boyd County passed above their average in both games against Johnson Central, and they managed to cut down JC's scoring margin by 25 points in the rematch. 👀

5) If I'm Coach Peck, I'm spending some time reviewing film from the Cov Cath/Highlands game. Highlands is the only team this season that had an above-average rushing game against Cov Cath. 

Breathitt got 70 of those yards on an absolute fluke hand grenade pass on 3rd and long that was misplayed by a defender and tipped around and caught and the kid squirted out behind the defense for a huge gain.

[Colonels_Wear_Blue]

Johnson Central's offense has turned over 11 times this season on 9 fumbles and 2 interceptions. Their defense has 1 forced fumble with 9 fumble recoveries and 5 interceptions.

Cov Cath's offense has turned over 6 times this season on 2 fumbles and 4 interceptions. Their defense has 6 forced fumbles with 7 fumble recoveries and 10 interceptions, including 2 pick-sixes.

[Evvie Ediston]

59 minutes ago, Colonels_Wear_Blue said:

1) So Johnson Central held Breathitt County's offense to 10 yards in their game?? Breathitt had almost 120 yards against Beechwood this past Friday. 10 yards? TEN??

2) I'm shocked that Johnson Central allowed Dohn Community to have as many yards as they did.

3) Cov Cath's defensive performance last week wasn't their best. I'm sure Coach Brown and company have been doing plenty to let the team know that and to correct mistakes.

4) If I'm Coach Eviston, I may well be logging onto Hudl and studying both of the Boyd County games. Boyd County passed above their average in both games against Johnson Central, and they managed to cut down JC's scoring margin by 25 points in the rematch. 👀

5) If I'm Coach Peck, I'm spending some time reviewing film from the Cov Cath/Highlands game. Highlands is the only team this season that had an above-average rushing game against Cov Cath. 

Don't be giving away the gameplan, now.

[theguru]

2 minutes ago, Evvie Ediston said:

Don't be giving away the gameplan, now.

Get him Coach E!

[MaddenCurse44]

Go CovCath!