Oldham County at Bryan Station Predictions/Updates

[ColonelMike]

Who:  Oldham County (6-1) at Bryan Station (6-1)

When:  Friday  10/15/21

Time:  Kickoff at 7:30 pm ET

Broadcast:  Live audio broadcast on www.pegasussportsky.com    7 pm ET    Mike Montgomery and Brian Sedoris with the call

Oldham County took a tumble last week for its first loss of the season, falling 31-15 to Madison Central in both teams' first district contests.

Oldham remains at #10 in the 6A BGP rankings, while Madison Central moves up to #9.

This week, Oldham must face another ranked district foe in Bryan Station, the defending district champs and pre-season favorites, who narrowly edged out unranked GRC last week, 9-7.    The Defenders, also 6-1 on the year, are ranked #6 in BGP 6A poll.

Bryan Station brings a stingy defense to the table, giving up just 11 points per game.   Offensively, coach Hawkins' squad is a balanced group, averaging approximately 160 yards through the air and 160 yards on the ground.    The Defenders have scored 12 touchdowns through the air - and 12 touchdowns on the ground.

QB Trenton Cutwright has thrown twice as many TDs as he has picks, and the running game is a multi-headed monster, with returning starter Joseph Bond leading the way with 414 yards and 3 scores.   GRC-transfer Jeremiah Mundy-Lloyd also has three scores (to go with 396 yards rushing), and Cutwright also has three rushing TDs.

Defensively, JT Haskins has 5 interceptions, and NINE different Defenders have recovered a fumble.   All told, this Defender defense has 18 takeaways on the season.   Last week, Station needed everything the defense could give them to stave off a big George Rogers Clark upset bid, ultimately winning late by just a 9-7 score.    Joseph Bond capped off a 114 yard rushing night against the Cardinals with a late TD to get the win, but the defense shone in the close affair, holding GRC to just 127 yards of total offense and 7 points.

Still, it was by far the lowest point total for Bryan Station since Game 1, when the Defenders fell to 5A power Frederick Douglass, 27-14.

Oldham County must re-group defensively after being gouged on the ground by a resurgent Madison Central program last week in Buckner.   The one-dimensional Indians came to OC and ran the ball for an astonishing 391 yards while failing to gain a single yard through the air.   Offensively, the Colonels were held to their lowest point total of the season in the loss.    Star QB Sam Young actually looked mortal last week....after starting the game 9 of 12 passing, Young finished just 3 of 9 the rest of the way, and threw 2 picks (he has only thrown three all season).

Still, there were some very promising notes for the Colonels; Oldham's defense actually did a good job of filling the gaps on defense, it was the tackling that was lacking in the second half, when MC pulled away from a 9-7 halftime lead.   Tackling can be improved.    And Oldham will greatly benefit this week from the return of running back Grant Gilchrist, a speedy change-of-pace runner who provides the "lightning" to starting running back Caden Sheppard's "thunder".   Gilchrist showed some explosiveness the last time Oldham faced Station, running for 44 yards on just 4 carries against the Defenders in the playoffs last year.

Young is Young....he is dangerous even when he's not on his "A" game.   Last week, he still threw for 185 yards and a touchdown, while rushing for 60 yards and a score.   For th eyear, the defending district offensive player of the year is connecting on 63% of his passes for over 1,100 yards and 12 TDs versus only 3 interceptions on the year.    He's also rushed for a team-high 490 yards and another 10 scores.   

Justin Ruffin (25 catches / 330 yards) is a reliable target for Young, running quick, precise routes and showing good hands.   Wesley Anderson is the top red zone target; he has only 6 catches but 4 have been acrobatic end zone catches for scores.    Jacob Davis is the big play man through the air, averaging 26 yards per catch.

Oldham feels that they have a big weapon at kicker in Jose Verta; the strong-legged placekicker is 6 of 8 on PATs, but has yet to show off his power with a Field Goal attempt.   Given the number of touchbacks Verta boots on kickoffs, his expected range is intriguing - but we haven't seen Oldham test him yet.

Since these two teams became district foes in 2019, the teams have split four games; Oldham won both matchups in 2019, and Bryan Station won both games between the two in 2020.   Only one game has been decided by less than 7 points; Station won the regular season game, 25-20, last year in Buckner.

The most recent matchup went to Station, 58-29, as the Defenders rolled in the second round of the playoffs last year in Lexington.

I'll try to post notes here online as I can throughout the game.

Pegasus will only be able to broadcast audio this week due to NFHS contractual restrictions placed upon Bryan Station HS.

CM

 

[Purple88]

This is a really good game.  With rain called for, you would tend to think the team with the strongest rushing attack would be a great shape.  Not 100% sure which team that is.

I usually go with Coach Hawkins teams and will again here!

But should be a really close game.

[Tigerpride94]

I'll take Station in a close one.

[ColonelMike]

I'll post updates as I can.....

CM

[BlueRaider]

I think Oldham County wins this one. I think Bryan Station is certainly better than normal and that the coaching staff obviously has them on the right track, but I have a hard time putting faith in Lexington Public School football programs outside of FD. This will be a telling game IMO. No disrespect to BS just skeptical. They played FD close but it was at the beginning of the year when teams make lots of mistakes. I'm looking forward to see the score of this one to see where both teams stand. 

[DevilMayCare]

From looking at the numbers from last year's two games, turnovers appear to have played a big role in the outcomes. The first game was a five point Defenders win, with Station turning the ball over three times and OC zero. Game 2 in the playoffs saw a reversal of those numbers and Station ran away with it. 

I don't know how to explain last week's result against GRC - maybe nothing more than an "off" week? - but I think Station has the horses to win this game by a couple of scores. One advantage the Colonels have is Young touching the ball on every snap. He might be the single most impactful player on the field tonight. Containing him is the key to slowing OC.

[Kanaka Kahakai]

Such a weird realignment, city of Lexington all the way to Oldham Co. Any how I'll go with OC. 

[coachhawk]

This game has been moved up to 6:30 pm.

[theguru]

Give me Station in this one!

[Hungover_in_Andover]

1 hour ago, Kanaka Kahakai said:

Such a weird realignment, city of Lexington all the way to Oldham Co. Any how I'll go with OC. 

As OCHS, you could either rack up some bus miles, or play Trinity every year. You Choose lol

[Hungover_in_Andover]

I'll take Station. 

[Kanaka Kahakai]

10 minutes ago, Hungover_in_Andover said:

As OCHS, you could either rack up some bus miles, or play Trinity every year. You Choose lol

So I wonder which district douglass ends up on when they move a class up in a few season? They will still require to play the 5 other city teams I assume, but now they're going to have to play other non district besides grant, moco 😏 as far as saving petroleum and racking up mileages.

[ColonelMike]

The Oldham - Bryan Station game has been moved up to 6:30 in an attempt to avoid some of the storm that is expected.

Pegasus Sports will go on air at 6:20 pm.  (we are only allowed to do audio at Bryan Station due to NFHS restrictions)

I'll post updates!

CM

[football momanager]

7 hours ago, Hungover_in_Andover said:

As OCHS, you could either rack up some bus miles, or play Trinity every year. You Choose lol

Rumor is that was a temporary district when OC moved back into 6A. Within the next year or two they will be back into the Ballard, Eastern and Trinity district??