Coronavirus: Endgame?

[CincySportsFan]

The number of confirmed cases in any given state, doesn't mean much without additional data. To begin with Arizona has close to twice as many people as Kentucky, but more importantly, I think you would need to know how many people have been tested in each state in order to draw any conclusions. If Ariziona has tested more people than Kentucky than you would expect more positive test. Same as if Kentucky would double the number of people it has tested than you would expect the number of positive test to double as well.

 

I don't like how so many stats are being thrown around now without any context. We need the media to give us more information without having to go dig for it to make some sense of the numbers that they are providing.

 

Completely agree on all points. Just pointing out that this thing has already shown up in warm weather climates, so the summer heat here may not necessarily be the savior that some of us wish it would be.

[John Anthony]

Completely agree on all points. Just pointing out that this thing has already shown up in warm weather climates, so the summer heat here may not necessarily be the savior that some of us wish it would be.

 

Humidity is still going to be our friend in this battle and will naturally flatten the curve to a degree on its own.

[Sandman]

I didn't want to threadjack and post this in any of the other threads dealing with this thing. But, I have a question that I can't really seem to see anybody (at the professional level) addressing. But, ultimately, flattening the curve gets us to where? (And please don't confuse this with WHY we are trying to flatten the curve. I totally understand that.) This is more of a WHERE we are going. To me, there are several possibilities...

 

* Until a vaccine can be created?

* Until a "cure" can be found?

* Until additional medical equipment can be manufactured?

* A combination of any/all of the above?

 

Here's also several other key components that go into my question...

* A vaccine will likely take 12-18 months to get done

* A cure will not happen overnight, as they don't want it to lead to more deaths than the original virus. Hence the reasoning into looking into already approved treatments/drugs.

* It's been said we may hit our "peak" of the curve sometime in May.

* We could see anywhere from 100,000 to 200,000 people die from it.

 

So here's my quandary, let's just say 50 million people end up being infected by the time we reach October (figuring 5 months on the uphill side of the curve, and another 5 on the downhill side) due to more testing being available. That sounds like a huge number, doesn't it? But, in reality, it's only 1 out of every 6 people or so.

 

Meaning that if all of this social distancing is relaxed, it really only takes one unsuspecting carrier to start this ball rolling again, right? Am I missing something?

 

Great post, great questions. In my heart and mind, I want to believe we will be restarting things the beginning of May. Realistically, I have very high doubts about things being close to normal even in July. That's 3 more months like this, and I'm not sure our society could handle that.

 

On the bolded, I think the reason no one is addressing it, is because no one knows. There's nothing finite about this issue, so anything said is going to be a guess.

 

Personally, I think the "endgame" is going to have to happen sooner than many medical leaders would like because as a whole, Americans want what we want when we want it, and we are used to that. Not being negative there, that's just how we are used to living and I don't think a 6, 9, or 12 month "besafeathome" slogan is going to work

[PurplePride92]

Great post, great questions. In my heart and mind, I want to believe we will be restarting things the beginning of May. Realistically, I have very high doubts about things being close to normal even in July. That's 3 more months like this, and I'm not sure our society could handle that.

 

On the bolded, I think the reason no one is addressing it, is because no one knows. There's nothing finite about this issue, so anything said is going to be a guess.

 

Personally, I think the "endgame" is going to have to happen sooner than many medical leaders would like because as a whole, Americans want what we want when we want it, and we are used to that. Not being negative there, that's just how we are used to living and I don't think a 6, 9, or 12 month "besafeathome" slogan is going to work

 

I don’t think it will work either and I am preparing mentally for how that can possibly affect my family even more.

[Voice of Reason]

Amendment to my post #3 above.

 

Testing. It is all about the testing. That has been the failure in the United States. In South Korea they have been very aggressive with testing from the start and that is how they have controlled their numbers. Also, because they have been so aggressive in their testing we can trust their numbers.

 

Meanwhile in the US we are 2 months plus into this and we still are not testing everyone. We are limiting testing to only the serious cases. The good news is we finally are getting the capability in place to provide widespread testing and quick results, within 15 minutes. However, we still have a shortage of supplies and kits to be able to do the testing. That is a terrible failure.

 

For us to get things restarted we need to have testing readily available for anyone who might be infected. That is step number one in restarting our lives.

[futurecoach]

Amendment to my post #3 above.

 

Testing. It is all about the testing. That has been the failure in the United States. In South Korea they have been very aggressive with testing from the start and that is how they have controlled their numbers. Also, because they have been so aggressive in their testing we can trust their numbers.

 

Meanwhile in the US we are 2 months plus into this and we still are not testing everyone. We are limiting testing to only the serious cases. The good news is we finally are getting the capability in place to provide widespread testing and quick results, within 15 minutes. However, we still have a shortage of supplies and kits to be able to do the testing. That is a terrible failure.

 

For us to get things restarted we need to have testing readily available for anyone who might be infected. That is step number one in restarting our lives.

 

Agreed.

[PurplePride92]

Amendment to my post #3 above.

 

Testing. It is all about the testing. That has been the failure in the United States. In South Korea they have been very aggressive with testing from the start and that is how they have controlled their numbers. Also, because they have been so aggressive in their testing we can trust their numbers.

 

Meanwhile in the US we are 2 months plus into this and we still are not testing everyone. We are limiting testing to only the serious cases. The good news is we finally are getting the capability in place to provide widespread testing and quick results, within 15 minutes. However, we still have a shortage of supplies and kits to be able to do the testing. That is a terrible failure.

 

For us to get things restarted we need to have testing readily available for anyone who might be infected. That is step number one in restarting our lives.

 

Big facts.

[Voice of Reason]

Looking at one of the sites that track the virus, they have it down to around 100 people in Kentucky hospitals for the virus on June 1.

 

Do we restart in Kentucky by June 1 if that proves accurate?

[Voice of Reason]

Ohio will start reopening May 1 in phases. First phase will most likely be allowing elective procedures at hospitals and healthcare facilities, places already equipped and trained in operating safely with protective procedures in place.

[DanvilleFan]

Looking at one of the sites that track the virus, they have it down to around 100 people in Kentucky hospitals for the virus on June 1.

 

Do we restart in Kentucky by June 1 if that proves accurate?

 

I've always thought June 1 was a more ideal date to start reopening for that reason.

[Jumper_Dad]

Los Angeles Mayor said this week that he didn't expect live sports until 2021.