Snow Accumulation Forecast (Updated)

[TheDeuce]

I come to believe the Weather Channel is the most unpredictable forecast to look at. It is all based on model and it is computer updated. It really doesn't use the human aspect of forecasting. That is why it changes so frequently. This was told to me by a local weatherman here in WKY.

 

Every forecast is based on computer models. Humans add their educated opinions to those computer models to come up with the forecasts they give you. Winter weather is especially hard to predict as literally one or two degrees makes all the difference.

 

In general, you shouldn't pay attention to any winter precipitation forecasts until 12-18 hours out, but that's just my opinion. TWC does a fine job as long as you keep that in mind.

[sweet16]

Every forecast is based on computer models. Humans add their educated opinions to those computer models to come up with the forecasts they give you. Winter weather is especially hard to predict as literally one or two degrees makes all the difference.

 

In general, you shouldn't pay attention to any winter precipitation forecasts until 12-18 hours out, but that's just my opinion. TWC does a fine job as long as you keep that in mind.

 

I'm with you on that. Winter weather is the most unpredictable due to the freezing line. A slight shift and it can be drastic changes. It happens in other times of the year but we don't worry much about it because it is just rain.

[TheDeuce]

I'm with you on that. Winter weather is the most unpredictable due to the freezing line. A slight shift and it can be drastic changes. It happens in other times of the year but we don't worry much about it because it is just rain.

 

Yep. I never pay attention to winter weather forecasts until the day/night before. Even then, it can change so much during the event. You could get a foot of snow in Louisville and none in E-town.

[mcpapa]

I've got one of those "Eastern Kentucky weather indicators" outside. It's a rock on a string.

 

If it's moving, it's windy.

If it's wet, it's raining.

If it's white, it's snowing.

[True blue (and gold)]

I come to believe the Weather Channel is the most unpredictable forecast to look at. It is all based on model and it is computer updated. It really doesn't use the human aspect of forecasting. That is why it changes so frequently. This was told to me by a local weatherman here in WKY.

I agree. Beyond telling me what today and tomorrow will be like, the Weather Channel is pretty poor at predicting weather.

[nees1212]

All I have to say is that it better snow, and it better snow a lot. All 5 of my kids' basketball games were cancelled in large part due to the KCSD decision to cancel all Saturday activities.

[theguru]

All I have to say is that it better snow, and it better snow a lot. All 5 of my kids' basketball games were cancelled in large part due to the KCSD decision to cancel all Saturday activities.

 

I know right.

 

I have talked to several people that all WANT IT TO SNOW for multiple reasons, one of them being my kids stuff blah blah blah...

[nWo]

Temps through Monday

 

Saturday low 28 high 34

Sunday low 30 high 33

Monday low 25 high 28

 

I'm still waiting on the afternoon GFS run to be released before I update my snow accumulation totals.

[nees1212]

I know right.

 

I have talked to several people that all WANT IT TO SNOW for multiple reasons, one of them being my kids stuff blah blah blah...

 

LOL. Just stinks b/c one had a double header and those games will not be made up, so he loses out on 2 games on the season. The other is in a tournament, and they have to take a forfeit if the games are played, which means they're out.

[gold sunrise]

Temps through Monday

 

Saturday low 28 high 34

Sunday low 30 high 33

Monday low 25 high 28

 

I'm still waiting on the afternoon GFS run to be released before I update my snow accumulation totals.

 

nWo, you are the only one I rely on for true weather predictions. We are blessed to have you do this for us on BGP.

[sportsfan41]

Temps through Monday

 

Saturday low 28 high 34

Sunday low 30 high 33

Monday low 25 high 28

 

I'm still waiting on the afternoon GFS run to be released before I update my snow accumulation totals.

 

When do those usually come out?

[nWo]

When do those usually come out?

The data run is at 1 pm but it takes time for the graphics and maps to be released.

[nkuclubbaseball19]

Perfect timing to get a uhaul and move my fiancé in tomorrow morning... and then later in the day drive to Louisville for her nephew’s birthday party...

[nWo]

Here is my updated snow accumulation forecast.

 

Cincinnati/NKY 4-6"

Maysville 3-5"

Louisville 3-5"

Owensboro, Elizabethtown, Lexington, Winchester, Ashland 2-4"

Richmond, Manchester, Pikeville 1-3"

Bowling Green, Somerset dusting to 1"

 

The freezing rain accumulations look to be light and mainly on the southern edge of this system.

[nWo]

This may not mean much but today is the first day we have turned our heat system on this winter. I had extra insulation installed in our attic and over our garage. We put rolls in then a company came in and blew more insulation on top of that.

 

So winter is coming!!! :thumb: