Iowa Thoughts/Predictions

It is gameday. What are you thinking will shake out this evening?

I keep getting the feeling Rubio is going to perform well. Hillary will Cruz to victory.

These have been my thoughts for months, but it has been unpredictable thus far, so who knows?

For whatever reason, I hope the results are totally bass ackwards from what everyone expects. At least that way, it will make for good entertainment, considering we have not a single candidate worth a poop.

(1) Will Hillary's thin margin hold? She doesn't want to head into S.C. down 0-2. (2) What will the GOP turnout be? Big is better for Donald, but will Trump's people actually vote, or are they just reality TV fans?

Traditionally, the Des Moines Register poll that comes out the Friday before caucusing is insanely accurate. It has Trump with a slight lead over Cruz and Rubio in a solid third well ahead of the other candidates.

Also has Clinton with a five point lead on Sanders.

Hillary by a lot

Cruz over Trump by a little

(1) Will Hillary's thin margin hold? She doesn't want to head into S.C. down 0-2.

She may not want it, but it may not matter. With a string of Southern states to follow, she'll likely do very as February wears on.

She may not want it, but it may not matter. With a string of Southern states to follow, she'll likely do very as February wears on.

Agreed. But going down 0-2 could be a psychological blow to her supporters, more so than damage her actual electoral prospects. I'll be very interested to see how she polls among Dem females today.

I find this to be more for those who enjoy the event more than those who actually care about a particular candidate.

They are predicting a record turnout tonight. I think that bodes well for Bernie. I won't be surprised if he pulls off the upset.

In general, I am amazed at how much hype there is about a race that has so little impact on picking the ultimate winner.

If you win Iowa it would be premature to start measuring for curtains at 1600.

Caucus history: Past years' results | Iowa Caucuses

If you win Iowa it would be premature to start measuring for curtains at 1600.

 

Caucus history: Past years' results | Iowa Caucuses

I wonder how many have started 0-2?

If you win Iowa it would be premature to start measuring for curtains at 1600.

 

Caucus history: Past years' results | Iowa Caucuses

Although the past two presidents both won Iowa in their lone primary with opposition.

For comparison's sake, none of the past three presidents won the New Hampshire primary.

Iowa does have value.

Why Iowa Matters For Trump And Sanders | FiveThirtyEight

(1) Will Hillary's thin margin hold? She doesn't want to head into S.C. down 0-2. (2) What will the GOP turnout be? Big is better for Donald, but will Trump's people actually vote, or are they just reality TV fans?

That's my guess as well.

The person for whom Iowa matters most is not any of the four people currently at first or second in their party's polling. It matters most for Marco Rubio.

Polling has him solidly third and if he does even better than that, then I think the coalescing will begin around him for those horrified by Trump and with misgivings about Cruz.