1st call for Snow (12/22-23/22)

[nWo]

This will not be an in depth  forecast but I want to give my first call this evening. I'm seeing a wide spread 4-8 inches for almost all of Kentucky. Parts of eastern Kentucky 6-10 inches. This along with winds 20-30 mph with gust upwards to around 40 mph will cause blowing snow and negative wind chill factors. These totals will be refined as we get closer to Thursday. I will post an update in the morning.

 

 

Your primary concerns at home or work during a winter storm are loss of heat, power and telephone service and a shortage of supplies if storm conditions continue for more than a day. In either place, you should have available:

• Flashlight and extra batteries
• Battery-powered NOAA Weather Radio and portable radio to receive emergency information
• Extra food and water such as dried fruit, nuts, granola bars and other food requiring no cooking or refrigeration.
• Extra prescription medicine
• Baby items such as diapers and formula
• First-aid supplies
• Heating fuel: refuel before you are empty; fuel carriers may not reach you for days after a winter storm
• Emergency heat source: fireplace, wood stove or space heater properly ventilated to prevent a fire
• Fire extinguisher, smoke alarm; test smoke alarms monthly to ensure they work properly
• Extra pet food and warm shelter for pets
• Review generator safety: Never run a generator in an enclosed space
• Make sure your carbon monoxide detector is working correctly and that the outside vent is clear of leaves and debris. During or after the storm, make sure it is cleared of snow.

[Kentucky Windage]

The first cold snap always scares the crap out of the utilities. Thus, I'll be working on Friday (company observed Christmas eve) and Saturday. Wish I could get that Milwaukee heated coat a couple days early. 

[nWo]

Here's how things are looking this morning. This appears to be a major storm that will affect the entire state. If anyone plans on traveling they should leave by Thursday evening. Mrs. nWo and I had planned on leaving on Friday but, I'm canceling my appointment for Friday morning and leaving Thursday afternoon. Traveling will be very difficult if not almost impossible on Friday. 

Temperatures on Thursday will range from the mid to upper 40s before the cold front moves into Kentucky. As the front passes through, everyone could see temps drop in the range of 40-50°. Winds will be blowing from 30 to 40 mph. This will make for dangerous wind chills. The precipitation will start as rain before it quickly changes over to snow. The snow will be very heavy at times. Blowing snow caused by near tropical force winds will cause almost white-out conditions Thursday evening into Friday. Temperatures will remain below freezing all weekend.

 

 

 

 

I will make my second call later today. I want to see a couple more model runs. Everyone should prepare now for this storm. Go to the store to get your milk and bread for you milk sandwiches! 😁

[Jumper_Dad]

I'm not questioning these projections at all, but if these snow levels are correct then the NWS needs to be held accountable for their forecast. They are calling for less than an inch of snow for Somerset. 

[nWo]

3 hours ago, Jumper_Dad said:

I'm not questioning these projections at all, but if these snow levels are correct then the NWS needs to be held accountable for their forecast. They are calling for less than an inch of snow for Somerset. 

That may change my totals could be wrong. Only time will tell. This map shows the estimate snow accumulation totals. It's pretty close to what they are predicting. I don't know if that's what they use. You can see a big difference. It is now showing almost 2 inches for Somerset. 

[TheDeuce]

7 hours ago, Jumper_Dad said:

I'm not questioning these projections at all, but if these snow levels are correct then the NWS needs to be held accountable for their forecast. They are calling for less than an inch of snow for Somerset. 

Marc Weinberg from WDRB in Louisville (the only guy I'll watch) has 2-4" for pretty much all of Kentucky west of I-75. I'll go with that. 

[sportsfan41]

28 minutes ago, TheDeuce said:

Marc Weinberg from WDRB in Louisville (the only guy I'll watch) has 2-4" for pretty much all of Kentucky west of I-75. I'll go with that. 

And east of 75?

[sportsfan41]

29 minutes ago, TheDeuce said:

Marc Weinberg from WDRB in Louisville (the only guy I'll watch) has 2-4" for pretty much all of Kentucky west of I-75. 

Duplicate.

[Jumper_Dad]

NWS hourly protection now calling for just under 2" cumulative for Somerset. So they appear to be slowly catching up with other forecast.

[nWo]

This is the latest GFS and NAM models are showing.

NAM

 

GFS

For my second call I'm seeing 4-8 inches west of I-75. East of I-75 3-5 inches. Southeast Kentucky 6-8 inches.

[All Blue]

I guess it’s just the sign of the times, but when did 2” of snow become considered as impossible to travel? 

[nkypete]

30 minutes ago, All Blue said:

I guess it’s just the sign of the times, but when did 2” of snow become considered as impossible to travel? 

With 55 MPH winds (possible whiteout conditions).  Trucks will have difficulty pretreating roads.  Watching Weather Channel and seeing videos of what the storm is doing now in other states.  Lots of accidents.

[TheDeuce]

48 minutes ago, All Blue said:

I guess it’s just the sign of the times, but when did 2” of snow become considered as impossible to travel? 

The issue here is the rain that could flash freeze prior to the snow falling.

[rjs4470]

15 hours ago, TheDeuce said:

The issue here is the rain that could flash freeze prior to the snow falling.

And since it will be so cold, the snow will be very light and fluffy. Coupled with the high winds, the snow will be blowing all over the place, making it nearly impossible to keep snow off the roads. With a possible layer of ice under that, and the fact that most road treatments won't work well because of the extreme cold, it won't take much snow to cause big problems. And with the extreme cold, you don't want to find yourself stranded on the side of the road if you run into an issue.

[rjs4470]

Just now, rjs4470 said:

And since it will be so cold, the snow will be very light and fluffy. Coupled with the high winds, the snow will be blowing all over the place, making it nearly impossible to keep snow off the roads. With a possible layer of ice under that, and the fact that most road treatments won't work well because of the extreme cold, it won't take much snow to cause big problems. And with the extreme cold, you don't want to find yourself stranded on the side of the road if you run into an issue. If this were just a normal snow, then no, a couple inches wouldn't be a big deal. But this is one of those perfect storms that could cause big issues despite there not being much snow.