White Christmas?

[nWo]

I haven't done a forecast with music in a while so here we go. 

 

This will be very brief this morning. I have to be at work early today. It appears that Kentucky may see a white Christmas this year. It is still uncertain about possible accumulations but I just wanted to let those who maybe traveling next weekend so they may plan accordingly. 

Scattered snow showers can be expected if sections of western  and central Kentucky Thursday afternoon. Around 5 pm EST most of Kentucky could see snow falling. The heavy snow could start around 8 pm for portions of Kentucky east of I-65 as  low pressure system is forecast to past southeast of Kentucky. The snow should be exiting Kentucky by early Saturday morning. I'm not real confident on possible snow accumulations yet because the mid range models have be unsteady about possible totals. The time covered by the following simulations is from 2 pm EST Thursday to 11 pm EST Friday night.

 

 

 

 

[nWo]

I just received this email from the National Weather Service office-Louisville.

 

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A couple of changes to the forecast package today. One is to include isolated and brief snow showers, mainly along and north of the I-64 corridor. These could bring brief reductions in visibility along with 30 mph winds.

The second is now that Thursday is in the 7-day forecast window, we are adding snow chances to the forecast. It is still too far out to be specific, but chances are worth a mention, especially given the impact it could have on holiday travel plans Thursday. Regardless of if it snows, Friday and through the holiday weekend will be COLD, with single digits looking likely for most locations Friday and Saturday mornings next week (12/23-24). Gusty winds on Friday could bring wind chills down to Wind Chill Advisory criteria.

 

 

[Defense_Wins_Games]

[nWo]

We could see the coldest temps of the 2022 winter so far. The latest GFS run is showing the entire state in the single digits by 8 am EST Saturday morning Christmas Eve. Along with that, wind chills ranging from 5-10 below zero.

 

[nWo]

Just wanted to show everyone the GFS model trend since yesterday. It will be a couple of days before we start seeing the possible snow fall for Friday. The totals have been vacillating back and forth. This storm has the potential of being an historic snow storm. After it passes through Kentucky could become a Nor' Easter.

[theguru]

I hate it when the totals vacillate. 🙂

[Jumper_Dad]

NWS hourly forecast has Somerset area getting about 2" Thursday/Friday.

We'll see how they change that projection this week.

[The Raven]

 

[OlDog75]

I'll never understand this infatuation with a white Christmas.

[TheDeuce]

5 hours ago, OlDog75 said:

I'll never understand this infatuation with a white Christmas.

Give me sunny and 80 every time. That's why Florida is in my future. 

[bugatti]

5 hours ago, OlDog75 said:

I'll never understand this infatuation with a white Christmas.

Because of the novelty. Where I live, the outlier we have is a "brown Christmas." 

[bugatti]

17 minutes ago, TheDeuce said:

Give me sunny and 80 every time. That's why Florida is in my future. 

Yep. Santa still delivers in warmer climates.

[The Raven]

3 hours ago, TheDeuce said:

Give me sunny and 80 every time. That's why Florida is in my future. 

Florida Man celebrates Christmas

[nWo]

I wanted to give everyone and update on what I'm seeing. First, if you plan on flying to a destination  Christmas, let my suggest that you make plans to leave early. While it is still uncertain about the snow accumulations, there will be significant flight delays. let's first look at the forecast temperature for Thursday into Friday. Temps will be in the low to mid 40s Thursday afternoon as a warm front lifts north of Kentucky, the precipitation will start as rain. As the cold front moves into Kentucky from the west, the arctic air will quickly change the rain to snow. The snow could be heavy at times,  as the cold front progresses across Kentucky. Temperatures will rapidly fall almost 40 to 50° after the cold front passes. Wind-chills will range from the mid teens to the low to mid -20° below zero range by Friday morning. Check out the GFS model guidance below. The time covered is from 2 pm EST Thursday to 8 am EST Friday.

 

 

 

 

Now, let say this is not an official forecast of any snow accumulations. It is a snap shot in time showing what the model guidance is showing. There is still uncertainty about the exact track of the storm.

 

Keep checking back for updates.

 

[nWo]

I just received this email from the National Weather Service-Louisville office.

 

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Good morning,
Attached is the latest weather briefing for the powerful winter storm forecast to impact Kentucky and southern Indiana Thursday into the Christmas holiday weekend. Minor snow accumulations appear likely Thursday night through Friday, and a rapid drop in temperature and high winds will likely worsen the impact of the any snow accumulations. Wind gusts late Thursday night through Friday could be in the 40-50 mph range. These winds along with the fridig temperatures will result in dangerous wind chills. The cold weather will last through Christmas.
Sincerely,
National Weather Service
Louisville, KY
weather.gov/louisville