Covington Catholic at Conner Predictions/Updates

[Colonels_Wear_Blue]

Conner (5-3) heads into the final week of district competition on Friday with a 2-1 district record, and the Colonels (5-3) are coming into Friday's game looking to complete their sixth-straight district sweep, with a current 3-0 district record. But it may not be as clear as you may assume.

Doing a little arithmetic based on comparison of performances against shared opponents this season, you may be left scratching your head a bit and wondering what exactly we will see this Friday in Hebron.

Conner at Dixie Heights: Dixie 42-26, margin of loss for Conner, 16 points.
Covington Catholic vs. Dixie Heights: Cov Cath 24-8, margin of victory for Cov Cath, 16 points.
Covington Catholic holds a 32 point advantage over Conner based on performances against Dixie.

Conner at Boone County: Conner 34-7, margin of victory for Conner, 27 points.
Covington Catholic at Boone County: Cov Cath 39-6, margin of victory for Cov Cath, 33 points.
Covington Catholic holds a 6 point advantage over Conner based on performances against Boone County.

Conner vs. Cooper: Cooper 43-7, margin of loss for Conner, 36 points.
Covington Catholic vs. Cooper: Cov Cath 31-24 (4OT), margin of victory for Cov Cath, 7 points.
Covington Catholic holds a 43 point advantage over Conner based on performances against Cooper.

Conner at Highlands: Conner 21-13, margin of victory for Conner, 8 points.
Covington Catholic at Highlands: Cov Cath 8-7, margin of victory for Cov Cath, 1 point.
Conner holds a 7 point advantage over Cov Cath based on performances against Highlands.

Logically, it would appear that Cov Cath more than likely heads into Friday's game as the favorite, with significantly better performances than Conner against Dixie and Cooper. But it's hard not to wonder what is going to happen if the Colonel team from this past Friday shows up to play the Cougar team from October 1st. Conner's #1 offensive strength is definitely their rushing attack, with RB Alijah Thompson's rushing accounting for exactly 1/3 of their total offensive output this season, and QB Alex Castrucci accounting for more than 1/4 of their offense with his own feet. The Cougars were without Thompson against Cooper, though, and a second straight game without their workhorse may spell clear defeat against the Colonels.

The Colonels still have a lot to work on to ensure a win against Conner, though, notably after having their sixth <100 passing game this past week, with a woeful 16 yards passing on 3 receptions against the Bluebirds. RB Reid Hummel brought another strong running performance against the Birds, with 99 yards on the ground, and after sophomore QB Evan Pitzer appeared shaken up following a big hit in the 3rd quarter of the game at the hands of LB Isaac Surrey, senior Preston Agee came in to run the Colonels offense for the remainder of the game, tallying the majority of his 15 carries for 75 yards.

By my estimation, Cov Cath clearly has what it takes to come home from Hebron on Friday with the win, but the Colonels clearly still need to piece several things together on offense.

[BWTigers]

I think Conner pulls the upset if Cov Cath can’t find some kind of passing attack. 

[theguru]

Does Conner have a good chance in this game?

[colonel-fan]

13 minutes ago, theguru said:

Does Conner have a good chance in this game?

Based on comparative Highlands scores, the Cougars are the favorites.

[theguru]

1 minute ago, colonel-fan said:

Based on comparative Highlands scores, the Cougars are the favorites.

What about the Dixie, Boone, and Cooper comparative scores?

[colonel-fan]

50 minutes ago, theguru said:

What about the Dixie, Boone, and Cooper comparative scores?

I’m not interested in those. I’m expecting Conner playing at home to make this a barnburner.

[theguru]

8 minutes ago, colonel-fan said:

I’m not interested in those. I’m expecting Conner playing at home to make this a barnburner.

I hope it is a competitive game but somehow I think the Colonels win this one going away.

[Tigerpride94]

Covington Catholic by 10.

[Colonels_Wear_Blue]

11 minutes ago, theguru said:

I hope it is a competitive game but somehow I think the Colonels win this one going away.

A little more numbers talk...

Conner, with their RPI of 0.53712, is averaging 24.5 points per game, with one defensive touchdown and no special teams touchdowns on the season. Cov Cath has a somewhat higher RPI at 0.59292, and they are averaging 23 points per game, with one defensive touchdown and no special teams touchdowns this season.

Cov Cath has won the last 5 games in this series by an average of 33 points. Looking at things realistically, I think Cov Cath has a slight advantage, with the results of the two Highlands games aside. But my memory is long enough to remember more than one occasion where Conner has played spoiler...like in 1994 when Conner handed the eventual state championship Colonels their 4th loss in 5 games to start off the season. Or in 1996 when the Cougars came back from a 12-0 loss in the regular season to end the Colonels' season with a 22-14 Conner win at Cov Cath. And I haven't forgotten 2012 either, when junior QB Drew Barker and company beat the Colonels 13-12 in Hebron. Cov Cath had beaten Campbell County 37-0, Dixie 54-0, and Boone County 34-0 that season, while Conner had only beaten the Camels by 7, the Rebels by 12, and they had lot by 2 to the red Colonels.

My gut says Cov Cath wins this by 14. Maybe as much as 21. But if I didn't make it clear enough already, I think Conner has every possibility of getting an upset win here.

[Brown]

I know nothing except 3 of my nephews went to Conner and were good athletes.  Go Conner!

[colonel-fan]

Does Conner stream their games?

[Hungover_in_Andover]

I'll take Conner now, CovCath in the playoffs! 

[TheConch]

Colonels by enough

[colonel-fan]

11 hours ago, colonel-fan said:

Does Conner stream their games?

Anybody?

[TheConch]

1 hour ago, colonel-fan said:

Anybody?

There was a link on their football page on Conner’s website, but it took me to a website encouraging me to watch the Rise of the Mummy and gave me about 40 options to do so and now I believe I have to get a new phone lol! And I didn’t even get to watch a football game or the rise od the mummy haha!