Oklahoma and Texas to the SEC???

[The Raven]

So A&M is playing the "It was ok when we did it, but you aren't allowed?" card.   Cry me a river!

[Walter]

12 minutes ago, The Raven said:

So A&M is playing the "It was ok when we did it, but you aren't allowed?" card.   Cry me a river!

A&M has a major recruiting and financial advantage over Texas in the SEC. They're going to do anything and everything to keep those.

I fully expect politics to be heavily involved in any realignment moves by Oklahoma and Texas. 

Oklahoma State pretty much guaranteed that with the statement below.

“If true, we would be gravely disappointed,” Oklahoma State said in a statement. “While we place a premium on history, loyalty and trust, be assured, we will aggressively defend and advance what is best for Oklahoma State”

 

[gchs_uk9]

3 hours ago, Walter said:

I'm most interested in this because of the dominos that would fall with other conferences if this happens. It's been said and thought for years that we were headed towards four 16-20 team "super conferences."

All good thoughts but here are some follow ups:

Kansas and Virginia to the Big 10?

• Virginia to the Big 10 makes some sense but during the last round of realignment the Virginia state government effectively tethered UVA and Virginia Tech. It would be hard for one to go and not the other.
• At first glance I would be surprised to see Kansas in the Big 10. They are in a low-population state with poor football. However, they are members of the Association of American Universities (all Big 10 schools are except Nebraska) and that is a feather in their cap. However...
• Because of that same academic component of the Big 10, you might be more likely to see North Carolina and Duke make the move. Those rumors have existed for years.

UC and Notre Dame to the ACC?

• Notre Dame to the ACC makes a ton of sense and you're crazy if you don't think last year's ACC experiment wasn't a trial run for the future. Any shifting to four super conferences almost inevitably puts the Irish in the ACC with their other sports.
• I don't believe Cincinnati would be an automatic invite. If it is no more than getting to sixteen (but with Texas and Oklahoma gone), I could see the ACC making a push into Texas to get someone like Baylor. Recruiting completely changed in the SEC when Texas A&M joined; I think the ACC would like that door to open for themselves, too.
• If the ACC needs multiple teams (for instance if Duke/North Carolina left), then Cincinnati probably enters the conversation at that point.

Which of the B12 leftovers does the Pac12 try to take?

• If anyone is more academic minded than the Big 10 then it is likely the Pac-12. I don't envision any current members leaving the Pac-12 but there aren't a ton of meaningful additions either. Getting to sixteen teams would require the league to hold their nose and choose.
• Possible options might be:
  • Brigham Young - always considered, but their Mormon connections don't really jive with the state schools on the Pacific coast. You know Utah doesn't want them in the league. No games on Sunday hurts them as well.
  • Boise State - strictly a football move, but the academics aren't great. USC, UCLA, Stanford, etc. would rather lose to Boise in recruiting than on the actual field.
  • Baylor/Houston/Texas Tech/TCU - if you want the Texas recruiting you might go for one or two of these.
  • Kansas - same as the Big 10, this is a good academic school. Outside of Colorado, however, it is a long way from the Pac-12 footprint. And they have terrible football.
  • Iowa State/Kansas State/Oklahoma State - these schools would likely be hoping for nothing more than a sympathy invite.

Do we see a B12/AAC merger of the remaining schools that didn't get picked up by the P12, SEC, ACC , and B1G?

• If there is a move to four 16-team super conferences, then it becomes a question of what Division I football looks like. If those conferences (assuming its the SEC, ACC, Big 10, Pac-12) have their own playoff, then a "Big 12 leftover/AAC" merger is probably what happens, although it wouldn't really matter. And who knows what that would look like?

[John Anthony]

Source:

Early next week, the @TexasLonghorns and @UofOklahoma will send a letter to the @Big12Conference stating that neither school will renew their media contracts when they expire in 2025. 

[Walter]

49 minutes ago, gchs_uk9 said:

All good thoughts but here are some follow ups:

Kansas and Virginia to the Big 10?

• Virginia to the Big 10 makes some sense but during the last round of realignment the Virginia state government effectively tethered UVA and Virginia Tech. It would be hard for one to go and not the other.
• At first glance I would be surprised to see Kansas in the Big 10. They are in a low-population state with poor football. However, they are members of the Association of American Universities (all Big 10 schools are except Nebraska) and that is a feather in their cap. However...
• Because of that same academic component of the Big 10, you might be more likely to see North Carolina and Duke make the move. Those rumors have existed for years.

UC and Notre Dame to the ACC?

• Notre Dame to the ACC makes a ton of sense and you're crazy if you don't think last year's ACC experiment wasn't a trial run for the future. Any shifting to four super conferences almost inevitably puts the Irish in the ACC with their other sports.
• I don't believe Cincinnati would be an automatic invite. If it is no more than getting to sixteen (but with Texas and Oklahoma gone), I could see the ACC making a push into Texas to get someone like Baylor. Recruiting completely changed in the SEC when Texas A&M joined; I think the ACC would like that door to open for themselves, too.
• If the ACC needs multiple teams (for instance if Duke/North Carolina left), then Cincinnati probably enters the conversation at that point.

Which of the B12 leftovers does the Pac12 try to take?

• If anyone is more academic minded than the Big 10 then it is likely the Pac-12. I don't envision any current members leaving the Pac-12 but there aren't a ton of meaningful additions either. Getting to sixteen teams would require the league to hold their nose and choose.
• Possible options might be:
  • Brigham Young - always considered, but their Mormon connections don't really jive with the state schools on the Pacific coast. You know Utah doesn't want them in the league. No games on Sunday hurts them as well.
  • Boise State - strictly a football move, but the academics aren't great. USC, UCLA, Stanford, etc. would rather lose to Boise in recruiting than on the actual field.
  • Baylor/Houston/Texas Tech/TCU - if you want the Texas recruiting you might go for one or two of these.
  • Kansas - same as the Big 10, this is a good academic school. Outside of Colorado, however, it is a long way from the Pac-12 footprint. And they have terrible football.
  • Iowa State/Kansas State/Oklahoma State - these schools would likely be hoping for nothing more than a sympathy invite.

Do we see a B12/AAC merger of the remaining schools that didn't get picked up by the P12, SEC, ACC , and B1G?

• If there is a move to four 16-team super conferences, then it becomes a question of what Division I football looks like. If those conferences (assuming its the SEC, ACC, Big 10, Pac-12) have their own playoff, then a "Big 12 leftover/AAC" merger is probably what happens, although it wouldn't really matter. And who knows what that would look like?

My original thought of UVA to B1G isn't possible...no ACC team can leave for the B1G. There's a very long GOR and I believe the only way an ACC team can move is if it's to the SEC, another all ESPN property. 

There have been rumors that Mizzou would be willing to leave the SEC if they received a B1G invite. Similar payday and better fit. The SEC also has no GOR so would be an easy exit. 

I'd be surprised if Baylor was an option over UC should the ACC decide to expand. UC has natural rivalries with both Louisville and Pitt and UC's overall profile is closer to the other ACC schools than Baylor. Notre Dame would obviously be the first option.

I could be wrong, but seems like with a focus being shifted to ESPN+ and streaming as an option to watch games, the market you're in just doesn't mean as much as it did last go around. 

UC football is at an all time high and more attractive than Baylor right now. Louisville cashed in on a similar run during the last realignment. The ACC would also love to move their recruiting footprint in to Ohio. 

The Pac 12 isn't expanding to Texas unless they're getting Texas. I could maybe see them adding Houston (it was discussed during the last expansion) but no way they take TCU, Baylor, or Texas Tech...IMO. 

[gchs_uk9]

5 minutes ago, Walter said:

My original thought of UVA to B1G isn't possible...no ACC team can leave for the B1G. There's a very long GOR and I believe the only way an ACC team can move is if it's to the SEC, another all ESPN property.

Is that new since Maryland made the move a few years ago? Also, with realignment I never say never. Contracts have rarely meant much in these types of conversations. 

[John Anthony]

TCU and Georgia Tech should be on the B10’s radar.

[Walter]

17 minutes ago, gchs_uk9 said:

Is that new since Maryland made the move a few years ago? Also, with realignment I never say never. Contracts have rarely meant much in these types of conversations. 

Maryland joined the B1G in 2014... New ACC GOR was signed in 2016 and lasts through 2035-2036. 

 

[Walter]

 

[Walter]

 

[Walter]

 

[Walter]

 

[Walter]

15 hours ago, John Anthony said:

TCU and Georgia Tech should be on the B10’s radar.

 

[Walter]

 

[Walter]

Both are expected to let the Big 12 know in the next 24-48 hours that they're leaving. 

Would cost $80 mil for them to leave and join the SEC for the 2022 season.