Over/Under for Reds

[KY Thorobred]

Because they are the Reds, nobody wins....79-83

[Guest]

At least there's the ASG to look forward too in Cicninnati....

[Bengal Maniac]

Under, they have not upgraded at all. Starting pitching which was their strong point will not be near as good. Left field is still an issue and will we get the Billy H. of the 1st half or 2nd half of last year.

[NEERFAN]

On pace for 73 and that's before the fire sale. I'm saying 69.

[jpa2825]

Under. Sell and sell hard. Also, don't wait for the ASG. Find the best deal between now and the trading deadline and move 'em. Royals are a perfect example. They didn't have to tear down and rebuild because they weren't good for a long time. However, they got off the "Zach Greinke signing" cycle of not being good enough to win but not being turrrrrible for a couple of years to stockpile enough talent to hit a 3-4 yr. window where they can win.

 

Given their market, they will have to tear apart this team soon enough and do the same thing again. At least they will have the credibility with their fans to say "we've done it before, so stick with us."

 

Reds are in a slightly better market with a payroll that is only $2M to $3M higher in 2015 than the Royals. However, many of the Royals' KEY contributors are controlled for a longer period at a lower rate (e.g., Ventura - $535k, Herrera - $1.6M, Moustakas - $2.6M, Cain - $2.7M, Escobar - $3M, Hosmer - $5.6M).

 

Another example? Astros.

 

If the Reds dealt all the talent and long term contracts at the ASG and explained that they are going to "tear down and rebuild," I would applaud.

[NEERFAN]

Under. Sell and sell hard. Also, don't wait for the ASG. Find the best deal between now and the trading deadline and move 'em. Royals are a perfect example. They didn't have to tear down and rebuild because they weren't good for a long time. However, they got off the "Zach Greinke signing" cycle of not being good enough to win but not being turrrrrible for a couple of years to stockpile enough talent to hit a 3-4 yr. window where they can win.

 

Given their market, they will have to tear apart this team soon enough and do the same thing again. At least they will have the credibility with their fans to say "we've done it before, so stick with us."

 

Reds are in a slightly better market with a payroll that is only $2M to $3M higher in 2015 than the Royals. However, many of the Royals' KEY contributors are controlled for a longer period at a lower rate (e.g., Ventura - $535k, Herrera - $1.6M, Moustakas - $2.6M, Cain - $2.7M, Escobar - $3M, Hosmer - $5.6M).

 

Another example? Astros.

 

If the Reds dealt all the talent and long term contracts at the ASG and explained that they are going to "tear down and rebuild," I would applaud.

 

It would be refreshing. The longer they wait the longer they will struggle.

[AverageJoesGym]

Under. Sell and sell hard. Also, don't wait for the ASG. Find the best deal between now and the trading deadline and move 'em. Royals are a perfect example. They didn't have to tear down and rebuild because they weren't good for a long time. However, they got off the "Zach Greinke signing" cycle of not being good enough to win but not being turrrrrible for a couple of years to stockpile enough talent to hit a 3-4 yr. window where they can win.

 

Given their market, they will have to tear apart this team soon enough and do the same thing again. At least they will have the credibility with their fans to say "we've done it before, so stick with us."

 

Reds are in a slightly better market with a payroll that is only $2M to $3M higher in 2015 than the Royals. However, many of the Royals' KEY contributors are controlled for a longer period at a lower rate (e.g., Ventura - $535k, Herrera - $1.6M, Moustakas - $2.6M, Cain - $2.7M, Escobar - $3M, Hosmer - $5.6M).

 

Another example? Astros.

 

If the Reds dealt all the talent and long term contracts at the ASG and explained that they are going to "tear down and rebuild," I would applaud.

 

The problem is that the Reds can't coerce the other teams to trade for their horrible contacts. You can't trade Bailey, Bruce , Phillips, Byrd etc and get like value. Votto is Joe Mauer 2.0 at this point.

[jpa2825]

Bailey ('19) and Votto ('23) are the big problems.

 

- Bailey is unknown with injury, but carries $18M, $19M, $21M & $23M the next 4 years. Reds would have to pay him $5M not to pitch or $25M to pitch in '20.

- Votto gets $20M next year, $22M in '17 and $25M each year until '24. In '24 Reds either pay him $7M to go away OR $20M to play.

 

 

That said, Phillips ('17 - $13M & $14M) and Bruce ('17 - $12.5M & $13M) you can probably hold your nose & tolerate during the rebuilding phase.

 

Byrd is '15 ($8M) w/ a club option for '16 ($8M that apparently could vest if he gets 610 PAs according to someone on here - I didn't look it up).

 

Meso is signed through '18 ($4.9M, $7.2M & $13M) but should be part of the rebuild, if healthy.

 

Iglesias is signed through '20 ($2.5M, $3.5M, $4.5M, $5M & $5M) but those #s can easily be supported in a rebuild. If he's good, they could be a major part of the rebuild.

 

Beyond that, it is basically a clean slate upon which to write. Just need to pick a direction and pursue it smartly. Flopping about in the middle is foolish.

[Capernicus41]

They are currently getting Frazier during his best years. Hopefully they don't sign him long term.

 

I've said it before, but if they could deal with LAD and get Seager, that is a piece to build around. Not sure if LA would part with him, but I would try.

[ggclfan]

Reds may be worst team in baseball by end of year...heck they may be right now...

[NEERFAN]

Currently on pace for 66.