Severe Weather Update for Tuesday 5/7/2024

[nWo]

There is currently a severe threat over the region that is multifaceted and multi-episode. First, there was a continuous band of strong to isolated severe thunderstorms that could be seen over parts of northern Arkansas, southwestward over southeastern Missouri, and across areas of Illinois. The bigger worry is that thunderstorms that are expected to form this afternoon along or ahead of the cold front may subsequently impact on a warm, moist airflow corridor that is behind the morning's activity and provides favorable heating. Under a plume of steepening midlevel lapse rates, which is a remnant of somewhat modified dry air above and extending across the area of low-level destabilization, surface dewpoints should rebound into the mid-upper 60s F. Conditions suitable for supercells to form and remain relatively distinct should result from the superposition of these processes; hodographs (Sounding Analogs) in the lowest several kilometers appear favorable for tornadoes (some possibly strong). 

 

[nWo]

I would favor having western Kentucky added to the Enhanced Area. There is a remote possibility that it could become a level 4 Moderate Risk. I recently examined the most recent HRRR for the significant tornado parameter. Right now, it is at 5.5 out of 10. Most large tornadoes of F2 or higher have been linked to STP values greater than 1. Now, this does not imply that one will occur; rather, it indicates that the right circumstances exist for large tornadoes to form.

[Jumper_Dad]

Kentucky canceled game with Xavier this afternoon and some state employees across the state are being sent home at 2:00 p.m. today.

[PP1]

Curious, where would you all rather be in a tornado? The basement of a big office building or the basement of your house?

[nWo]

 

Here is a quick summary of the conference call I just got off with the NWS-Louisville office: 

Those under a supercell later today may see hail the size of golf balls. The individual cells should start to fire later today as a warm front lifts and travels into Kentucky. Keep your guard up despite the current cloud cover. Four rounds of powerful storms are possible as the atmosphere recovers, which could happen later today and into overnight. Next, Wednesday night and Wednesday afternoon. For tomorrow, we need cloud cover to keep the real threat contained. The more sunshine there is, the more dangerous tornadoes are. It is all on the table for tomorrow.

[nWo]

One thing I neglected to mention in my summary of the conference call was the flood threat. There is a marginal threat of flooding today. There is a slight risk of flooding tomorrow.

 

Today

 

 

Tomorrow

[TheDeuce]

22 minutes ago, PP1 said:

Curious, where would you all rather be in a tornado? The basement of a big office building or the basement of your house?

Office building, for sure. 

[nWo]

Everyone should be weather-aware later today into early Thursday morning. Have more than one way to get information for your area.

This will be our weather motto:

FOREWARNED is FOREARMED. 

(If you know about a problem or situation in advance, you will be able to deal with it when you need to.)

[nWo]

The sun is already starting to come back out here in Richmond.

[nkypete]

That wave went through real fast here in downtown Cincinnati.  Back to being overcast and quiet at 1:45pm.