Bengals 27 Vikings 24 (OT)

[theguru]

2 minutes ago, MJAlltheWay24 said:

They got zero help yesterday.

Just win baby!

[Voice of Reason]

15 minutes ago, theguru said:

Just win baby!

Yes, but I heard on the radio today that the Bengals could win out and still not get into the playoffs.

😬

[theguru]

2 minutes ago, Voice of Reason said:

Yes, but I heard on the radio today that the Bengals could win out and still not get into the playoffs.

Do you or does anyone have the breakdown of that?  I find it hard to believe. 

[Voice of Reason]

I googled and this is the first thing that came up:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/upshot/cincinnati-bengals-nfl-playoff-picture.html#pit-cin-16=loss&kc-cin-17=loss&cin-cle-18=win

If Bengals win final 3, 99% chance they are in (not 100%). It doesn't break down how that happens though.

[theguru]

21 minutes ago, Voice of Reason said:

I googled and this is the first thing that came up:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/upshot/cincinnati-bengals-nfl-playoff-picture.html#pit-cin-16=loss&kc-cin-17=loss&cin-cle-18=win

If Bengals win final 3, 99% chance they are in (not 100%). It doesn't break down how that happens though.

That link is behind a paywall for me because on occasion I look at the nytimes and I am out of freebies at the moment.  If you want to add any further that would be great.

[Voice of Reason]

23 minutes ago, theguru said:

That link is behind a paywall for me because on occasion I look at the nytimes and I am out of freebies at the moment.  If you want to add any further that would be great.

 In that link they have a calculator that allows you to click on the Bengals and see what their odds are if they win each of their last 3 games. If they only beat the Steelers, they still have a 50% chance of making the playoffs. If they beat the Steelers and the Chiefs, playoff chances go up to 85%.  Then 99% if they win all three.

I was surprised they still have a 50% chance if they only beat the Steelers.

Here us another article. This one from the Sporting News:

https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nfl/news/bengals-playoff-picture-afc-wild-card-2023-nfl-playoffs/6b317b586b19692e06d30d91

This article says the Steelers have the lowest chances among contenders at than the Bengals even after this weekend. The Bengals and Broncos have about the same chances at 6.6%. The Broncos are at 26% and Bengals at 27.5%.

[theguru]

Even if we make the playoffs I don't think we are going to do anything but who knows and this is fun. 

[FrankNicodemus]

7 hours ago, Voice of Reason said:

 In that link they have a calculator that allows you to click on the Bengals and see what their odds are if they win each of their last 3 games. If they only beat the Steelers, they still have a 50% chance of making the playoffs. If they beat the Steelers and the Chiefs, playoff chances go up to 85%.  Then 99% if they win all three.

I was surprised they still have a 50% chance if they only beat the Steelers.

Here us another article. This one from the Sporting News:

https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nfl/news/bengals-playoff-picture-afc-wild-card-2023-nfl-playoffs/6b317b586b19692e06d30d91

This article says the Steelers have the lowest chances among contenders at than the Bengals even after this weekend. The Bengals and Broncos have about the same chances at 6.6%. The Broncos are at 26% and Bengals at 27.5%.

Why just 99% if the win all 3?  Is the 1% chance of not making it due to if we for some reason they get denied entry due to the Commissioner banning the Bengals from the playoffs for some reason?

[burreaux]

8 hours ago, theguru said:

Even if we make the playoffs I don't think we are going to do anything but who knows and this is fun. 

Depends on who they draw. They could draw the Jags again and we know we can beat them.

[futurecoach]

9 hours ago, Voice of Reason said:

I googled and this is the first thing that came up:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/upshot/cincinnati-bengals-nfl-playoff-picture.html#pit-cin-16=loss&kc-cin-17=loss&cin-cle-18=win

If Bengals win final 3, 99% chance they are in (not 100%). It doesn't break down how that happens though.

I believe the only scenario where they can miss if they win out is if Buffalo ends up winning their division over Miami. If Miami ends up 11 and 6 but doesn’t win their division. Miami would have the tie breaker over the Bengals due to conference record. Then also would have to be tied with another team or two as well. So it’s very long odds of it happening, but if Buffalo somehow wins their division, then that scenario comes into play. 

[Voice of Reason]

9 hours ago, FrankNicodemus said:

Why just 99% if the win all 3?  Is the 1% chance of not making it due to if we for some reason they get denied entry due to the Commissioner banning the Bengals from the playoffs for some reason?

That goes back to what I heard on the radio. Someone said the Bengals could miss the playoffs even if they win out. That scenario is what I was looking for when I found that calculator.

[Voice of Reason]

8 hours ago, futurecoach said:

I believe the only scenario where they can miss if they win out is if Buffalo ends up winning their division over Miami. If Miami ends up 11 and 6 but doesn’t win their division. Miami would have the tie breaker over the Bengals due to conference record. Then also would have to be tied with another team or two as well. So it’s very long odds of it happening, but if Buffalo somehow wins their division, then that scenario comes into play. 

It would obviously have to be another 11-6 team. The Browns perhaps?

[futurecoach]

1 hour ago, Voice of Reason said:

It would obviously have to be another 11-6 team. The Browns perhaps?

Yeah the Browns and one of the AFC South teams specifically the Texans. It would take a 4 way tie with the Dolphins included. So very small chance all that happens, but technically it can and could keep the Bengals out even if they win out. 

[theguru]

I am watching the replay right now on the NFL Network.  The Vikes just went up 24 to 17, ugh. 🙂

[nkypete]

25 minutes ago, theguru said:

I am watching the replay right now on the NFL Network.  The Vikes just went up 24 to 17, ugh. 🙂

I got a feeling that the good guys can come back.