BGP Severe Weather Alert Day (3/3/23)

[nWo]

As I suspected this morning the Storm Prediction Center has just raised the threat level for portions of Kentucky to a level 3 Enhanced Risk Area for central Kentucky. The rest of the state is now under a level 2 Slight Risk area Friday.

 

 

The surface low will likely be centered near southeast Missouri/northeast Arkansas early Friday morning, before then moving quickly northeastward
 through the Lower OH Valley causing the cold front to overtake the warm front. This will lead to a  narrowing of the warm sector.. Even so, at least  low 60s dewpoints are anticipated ahead of the low and the cold front from western TN/KY through middle TN and central KY. Heating ahead of the line will be modest, but some  limited cold humid air rising is still expected to develop, particularly during the afternoon  across middle TN and central KY.  This buoyancy and ascent will be combine with robust wind fields. These environmental conditions  are expected to support thunderstorms capable of strong gusts, and potentially a few tornadoes. A linear mode looks most probable,  although some model guidance has begun to indicate the potential for a few discrete storms ahead of the line. As of now, the discrete scenario  has not been given too much weight, due to limited surface-based  potential ahead of the line. That being said, any discrete storms that mature would likely be supercellular. I also just checked the soundings for the Enhanced Risk Area. The strength and any possible tornado could reach EF-3 or maybe even EF-4. This doesn't mean we will definitely see a tornado of that strength. Just that the conditions could be favorable for  any tornado that form could be that strong.  So I've decided to go into a Severe Weather Alert Day for Friday. 

I will be on a conference call with the NWS-Louisville office at 2:45 to 3:30 PM This afternoon. I will post the latest information as soon as I can afterwards.

 

[nkypete]

It's just a shame that the area surrounding Bowling Green seems to be regularly on the @nWocharts for events like this.

[theguru]

2 minutes ago, nkypete said:

It's just a shame that the area surrounding Bowling Green seems to be regularly on the @nWocharts for events like this.

I think it is the way our weather systems flow, systems seem to converge there a lot. 

[nWo]

The NWS-Louisville is saying this is a very serious situation. Here are some of the highlights.

Those south and east of a line from around Glasgow through Danville to Richmond  should be on heighten alert. This is the main area for possible tornadoes. I just looked at the latest SARS sounding and it doesn't look good for the area mentioned. Showing possible PDS tornadoes. Especially for the western part of the area.

➔ A potent weather system will move through the region tonight into Friday.
➔ Strong to severe storms will be possible Friday morning and afternoon ahead of and along a cold front.
➔ Main severe threats will be damaging winds and isolated tornadoes.
➔ Repeating rounds of heavy showers and storms may result in flooding issues.
➔ Gusty winds are expected outside of storms.

 Locally Damaging Winds

Potential Impacts: Tree damage likely, power line damage possible, minor shingle damage possible, outdoor furniture and loose objects blown around, crop damage possible.

Due to the High Wind Warnings they will not be sending out the generic severe thunderstorms warnings unless the radar indicates bowing segments and winds over 70 mph. Also it was mentioned by the moderator that this is the first time in his 17 years of being at the NWS-Louisville office that a high wind warning was issued this early. 

 

Everyone should be going over their emergency action plans now. Have more than one way to get weather warnings for your area. The next update will come around 4 am EST Friday. I will be up going over the information. I may post another update later this evening. 

 

[nWo]

16 minutes ago, nkypete said:

It's just a shame that the area surrounding Bowling Green seems to be regularly on the @nWocharts for events like this.

That is the area where the soundings are showing possible PDS tornadoes. I've already alerted my children. 

[nWo]

34 minutes ago, theguru said:

I think it is the way our weather systems flow, systems seem to converge there a lot. 

You are correct. The prevailing winds cross Kentucky from the southwest to northeast. I've told my children during these situations look to the southwest of Bowling Green because this is the direction most tornadoes will travel. Back during the December tornado outbreak in 2021 I first look at the Russellville area then sent warnings to my children about 10-15 minutes before the tornado hit Bowling Green.

[nWo]

I forgot to mention in my last update that if there is any breaks in the clouds that will allow the sun to shine. That will make the situation worse. 

[nWo]

The 18z HRRR run is not looking good at all. May see a level 4 Moderate Risk Area for portions of Kentucky for tomorrow. 

[Jumper_Dad]

NWS calling for sustained 30mph winds all afternoon with gust around 60mph for the areas around Lake Cumberland and Somerset. 

[nWo]

This is what the 18z HRRR model is showing. It's really not looking good at all. It appears that the cold front will move slower than expected and that is also not good. This will give the atmosphere more time to become unstable. These cover the period from 10 am to 7 pm EST.

 

 

[The Raven]

This system is currently causing all kinds of havoc in Texas, Oklahoma and NW Louisiana.   let's hope it loses some of its mojo as it moves northeast.

[TheDeuce]

Several school districts across Kentucky and Southern Indiana are closed tomorrow in anticipation of severe weather. Everyone be safe tomorrow. 

[Bluegrasscard]

Fayette public schools already called for Friday due to anticipated conditions. 

[nWo]

The Storm Prediction Center has expanded the level 3 Enhanced Risk Area for today. 

Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and a few tornadoes  will be possible today. A negatively-tilted upper-level trough will move quickly northeastward across the mid Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys today. At the surface, a deepening low will move northeastward across the mid Mississippi Valley, reaching the Ohio Valley this afternoon. A cold front will advance quickly eastward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Thunderstorms will likely form just ahead of the front early in the day, with a squall line organizing and moving quickly eastward across the region. Forecast soundings near the line around midday have impressively strong southerly flow of 50 to 60 knots just above the surface. This line should be able to easily drive these winds to the surface, making wind damage likely in many areas this afternoon. The faster moving and more organized parts of the line could produce gusts exceeding 70 knots, with the greatest wind-damage threat located from near the Ohio River extending southward to northwest of the Atlanta Metro. In addition, the stronger parts of the line should have embedded rotating elements. These cells could be associated with a tornado threat.

[nWo]

Update from NWS-Louisville

 

➔ A potent weather system will move through the region today.

➔ Strong to severe storms will be possible between Noon and 5 pm EST ahead of and along a cold front.

➔ Main severe threats will be damaging winds and isolated tornadoes.

➔ Enhanced Risk now includes areas north of I-64 and into southern Indiana