BGP Severe Weather Alert Day (3/3/23)

[nWo]

Not a good sign for the areas that may see a break in the clouds later today. Hopefully nothing comes of it.

[nWo]

Storms across parts of the Mid-South region have entered a relative lull in severe risk, but with isolated severe gusts and a tornado or two still possible the next couple hours, amidst weak but still surface-based buoyancy.  Activity should strengthen/reorganize substantially later this morning into afternoon as it sweeps northeastward across the remainder of the Tennessee and lower Ohio Valley regions. 

[TheDeuce]

Daycare closing early, so me and the little one may get our first tornado chasing experience today!

[nWo]

The tornado and damaging wind threat has been raised.

 

Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.

 

 

Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.

[nWo]

The sun is starting to break through the clouds here in Richmond. 

[nWo]

New maps just released. Now almost the entire state of Kentucky under a level 3 Enhanced Risk Area. This includes the Cincinnati area.

 

Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.

 

 

Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.

 

[Jack of all Trades]

36 minutes ago, nWo said:

The sun is starting to break through the clouds here in Richmond. 

In NKY we are still under cloud cover.

[nWo]

72 mph wind gust just reported near Hickman, KY.

[nWo]

Tornado Warning Todd County 

 

Tornado Warning
KYC047-219-031745-
/O.NEW.KPAH.TO.W.0016.230303T1652Z-230303T1745Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1052 AM CST Fri Mar 3 2023

The National Weather Service in Paducah has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Southeastern Christian County in south central Kentucky...
  Southern Todd County in south central Kentucky...

* Until 1145 AM CST.

* At 1052 AM CST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a
  tornado was located over Oak Grove, moving northeast at 45 mph.

  HAZARD...Tornado.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

  IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
           shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
           Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree
           damage is likely.

* Locations impacted include...
  Elkton.

This includes Interstate 24 in Kentucky between Mile Markers 83 and
92.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

[Kentucky Windage]

Really appreciate the updates @nWo. Have a feeling you'll be putting in some "overtime" today. 

 

Stay safe out there, BGP members! 

[nWo]

8 minutes ago, Kentucky Windage said:

Really appreciate the updates @nWo. Have a feeling you'll be putting in some "overtime" today. 

 

Stay safe out there, BGP members! 

Thanks

[nWo]

Mesoscale Discussion 0245
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1144 AM CST Fri Mar 03 2023

   Areas affected...western Kentucky...far southern Indiana

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 60...

   Valid 031744Z - 031945Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 60 continues.

   SUMMARY...A corridor of tornadoes and significant wind damage is
   likely over the next several hours.

   DISCUSSION...An arcing line of storms is strengthening near a deep
   surface low, with 977 mb measured at the PAH observation at 17Z.
   Drying aloft is aiding clearing and surface heating now ahead of
   this line, which will further increase low-level instability. Shear
   profiles are extreme with 0-1 SRH over 500 m2/s2.

   Both tornadoes and swaths of hurricane-force winds are expected with
   this line as it rapidly moves east coincident with the low. Enhanced
   lift where this line of storms intersects the warm front may be a
   favored area for a strong tornado as well.

[Jack of all Trades]

The state of Kentucky seems to always be in the line of fire anymore.  Not a good feeling.  Still overcast, raining and cold in NKY.

[theguru]

1 hour ago, nWo said:

72 mph wind gust just reported near Hickman, KY.

Wow!  It is windy here but nothing like that.  Those kind of winds will tear a lot of structures up. 

[allsport71]

I'm at cvg airport, planes still coming and going as usual, not real windy here yet..thanks nWo for your updates.