Owensboro at Frederick Douglass Predictions/Updates

[16thBBall Fan]

                                                                    vs. 

 

Well for the 4th straight season the Red Devils of Owensboro will be playing the Broncos of Frederick Douglass for a chance to play for the 5A State Championship. In the previous three meetings the Broncos have won 2 and the Red Devils have won one. This game looks to be another really good game between two very good teams and programs. The only bad thing above the above statements that after these 3 games neither program were able to win the next week in the 5A title game, maybe that will change this year. I'm sure the Bowling Green and Southwestern winner will have something to say about it.

Up here in central Kentucky we don't get to see much of Owensboro until playoff time. The Red Devils come into this game at 11-2 with their only losses coming against 6A power St. X and to a very good Owensboro Catholic, however both of these losses were in the first 4 weeks of the season. In their last nine wins they have outscored their opponents 327-67. They are coming off an easy 36-0 5A quarterfinal win over Fairdale. They are lead on offense by running back Kenyatta Carbon who in 11 games has rushed for 1316 yards with 22 TD's and a average of 9.2 yards per carry. The Red Devils quarterback Kasey Boone in 12 games has thrown for 1362 yards with 14 touchdowns and 9 interceptions. On defense Owensboro is only giving up 11.4 points per game and only 185 total yards per game and have a average margin of victory of 30.5 points per game.

The Broncos come into this game this year at 13-0 and have been the top ranked team in 5A all season. The Broncos are coming off their closest game so far this season in the 5A quarterfinals to a  very good Woodford County team 21-7. The game was tied at the half, but the Broncos came out and dominated the 2nd half on defense holding the high powered Yellow Jacket offense to less that 50 total yards in the 2nd  half. Frederick Douglass is lead by a very potent and talented 3 prong rushing attack of TJ Horton, Davaun Hart, and TY Bryant. who have combined for almost 1500 yards and 41 touchdowns in 12 games. The Broncos quarterback Cole Carpenter has in 12 games has thrown for over 1700 yards with 20 touchdowns and only two interceptions. The Broncos have a very good duo of wide-receivers in Tylon Webb and Cameron Dunn who have combined for over 1100 yards and 12 touchdowns.

These two teams both have very good defenses as is evident in their stats. The Red Devils have the 3rd best defense in 5A they are only allowing 11.4 points per-game and only 185 total yards per game. The have a 30.5 scoring margin and that is the 2nd largest margin in 5A. The Broncos who most years have been more know for their high powered offense, but their defense this season has been the most impressive. The Broncos this season is #1 in 5A only allowing 5.2 points per game and 89 total yards allowed per game and they are also #1 in 5A in scoring margin at 40.4 points per game. The Red Devil offense is averaging 41.8 points per game and the Broncos are averaging 45.3 points per game.

This should be another really good game between two excellent programs in their previous three meetings the home team has won all of the meetings in 2019 the Broncos won 28-17 in a game that was closer than the final score. In 2020 in a classic game at Owensboro the Red Devils defeated the Broncos 28-27. Last season in a game at "The Farm" this one was pretty much dominated by the Broncos 35-7. This should be a very good game between two very talented and athletic teams. The kickoff for this one is earlier than normal and will kick at 6:00pm. The game can be viewed on the NFHS Network with a paid membership at the time of this post I'm not sure if there will be any other venues that will be broadcasting the game.

 

[Devils Fan]

Douglass is just too much. Woodford County is about as close to beating Douglass as it will get. Just want to see the Devils come out compete and leave it all on the field.

[Brown]

O has played Freddie tough 2 years.  Last year losing Wimsatt and Miller was too much.  O matches up about as well as you can - speed, athleticism and a tough defense.  Great O-line for O and great front 7 on defense.  This is a tough Freddie team, and I picked them.  O needs to play lights out defense and get some turnovers and defensive points.  1st quarter last year O looked good but miller went out and it was over.  Get first downs and move chains.  That said Freddie has made mincemeat out of several good teams.  O was in the X game to the bitter end, but Freddie can make you pay quickly.

I think O keeps it close for a half but ultimately loses.  I was hoping this game was in the finals this year.

 

Freddie D 28-14

[Purple88]

I think Frederick Douglas is the most complete team in 5A and likely the whole state.

Their win vs Boyle County really made me take notice as I thought it would be a much closer game.

They were really pushed vs a very good Woodford County team and didn't fold but kept grinding to get the hard-fought win.  Impressive.

The Red Devils are the new car that doesn't sell because of a small ding (OCath loss) in the door but is just as capable as any other car.  They are more athletic than most on here know with speed and athleticism to match alot of areas Douglass usually dominates.

While this is true, I said after the Boyle County game that this is Fredrick Douglas' year and I still think that.

I think Owensboro gives them all they want but will fall short in the second half.

[theguru]

Paid video:

https://www.nfhsnetwork.com/events/frederick-douglass-high-school-lexington-ky/gam4d5b2fec82

[Hungover_in_Andover]

35-7 Douglass. 

Home field advantage. 

FDHS defense is markedly better than last season.

Starters remained in through the 4th quarter last week, so there's not much chance for a letdown this Friday.

[Devils Fan]

How much better is Douglass’s defense this year really?

Watching film of last years game. In the first have Owensboro was moving the ball on the ground pretty good. Just couldn’t seem to find the end zone and the loss of OL Miller really hurt the Devils. The momentum was pretty back in forth and probably in favor of the Devils as they were having longer sustained drives until the first turnover happened and the Devils lost there mojo and oh yeah a stud by the name of Dane Key took over... Does Douglass have a star WR that can take over the game like Key did if the run game is being stopped if the answer is no I look for this game to be a little closer than most think especially if the Devils can keep from turning the ball over. The entire defense for the Devils return except for the corners who are almost replicas of last years corners as far as size and talent level goes and MLB who was replaced with a very talented freshman Eli Hampton. Last year Goodwin was all in Douglass’s back field I expect this year to be no different. If Carbon plays defense the whole game I’m starting to like my Devils chances. 
 

I might be a fool for doing this but ima go back on what I said earlier in this post. I think the Devils have a chance in this 1. Douglass is similar to Henderson just more talented group of DB’s. Boyle and Woodford are really good teams but I just think the Devils match up better. 
 

I know voted for Douglass but ima be true fan and take my Devils in a low scoring nail biter 14-10.

[Devils Fan]

For the Devils the biggest factor will be how QB Boone performs. If he’s efficient, just efficient not perfect meaning don’t take sacks don’t fumble and don’t throw picks(Tall Task) the Devils can find the end zone. 

[16thBBall Fan]

I think that in the 6 seasons they have had a program this is their best defense they have had. They have played now several pretty good offensive teams and held them to one of if not heir lowest points of the season: Bryan Station (7 points was scored or subs) Scott Co. 0 points, Boyle Co. 6 points, Cov. Cath.  6 points and Woodford 7 points.

[Old General]

Just going by FD’s defensive numbers thru 12 games (not counting the Lafayette game due to forfeit) they’re pretty good… 

They’ve given up 9 TD’s and probably 6 of those where in the 2nd half against JV. 

They’ve given up 606 total yards passing for a 50.5 yards per game average. 

They’ve given up 612 yards rushing for a 51 yard per game average  

The vast majority of the 101.5 yards per game they’ve given up has come in the 2nd half against their JV/non starters. If they played the starters 4 quarters it wouldn’t unrealistic to believe they’d be averaging -yards per game for the season. Their D is that good! 

IMO the #1 key to competing with FD is to be able to move the ball enough to at least flip field position. Their O has made a living off getting the ball with a short field. This why they’ve put up big scoring numbers with fairly low yards per game. #2 is to contain their run game and force them to throw. They have several really good receivers that are very good at getting yards after the catch so their passes are mostly short throws and screen passes so it’s tough to get pressure on their QB. 

 

[16thBBall Fan]

Welcome to BGP @Old General!

[Old General]

9 minutes ago, 16thBBall Fan said:

Welcome to BGP @Old General!

Thank you! 

[Hungover_in_Andover]

12 hours ago, Devils Fan said:

The momentum was pretty back in forth and probably in favor of the Devils

I'm glad some of the O fans are starting to get hype now! Ok, but u guys had 7 points for the game! 2020 we came to Rash, threw two picks and gave up 14 points to start the game , then fought back to lose by 1! 

 

Goodwin is nice, and he might fight through some blocks like #55 Cov Cath did, and Tommy Zeismer did, but who will break-through the OL for FDHS if he doesn't?

If Douglass uses Ty Bryant from the start like they did in the 2nd half vs Woodford,we WON'T NEED a receiver to step up. I strongly believe our O line is wearing down any opponents DLine if we keep attacking their interior!

My take for Owensboro is, what has changed/improved for you guys since the last visit to the Farm? Looks like same personnel,  same philosophy...  Successful against most opponents, but why would the result change vs Douglass this season? Aside from the Broncos turning the ball over? 

 

 

[Hungover_in_Andover]

5 hours ago, Old General said:

Just going by FD’s defensive numbers thru 12 games (not counting the Lafayette game due to forfeit) they’re pretty good… 

They’ve given up 9 TD’s and probably 6 of those where in the 2nd half against JV. 

They’ve given up 606 total yards passing for a 50.5 yards per game average. 

They’ve given up 612 yards rushing for a 51 yard per game average  

The vast majority of the 101.5 yards per game they’ve given up has come in the 2nd half against their JV/non starters. If they played the starters 4 quarters it wouldn’t unrealistic to believe they’d be averaging -yards per game for the season. Their D is that good! 

IMO the #1 key to competing with FD is to be able to move the ball enough to at least flip field position. Their O has made a living off getting the ball with a short field. This why they’ve put up big scoring numbers with fairly low yards per game. #2 is to contain their run game and force them to throw. They have several really good receivers that are very good at getting yards after the catch so their passes are mostly short throws and screen passes so it’s tough to get pressure on their QB. 

 

This is a pretty spot on analysis.

Story of the season. If teams could advance past the 50 on us, it does change a lot.  FDHS has to prevent chunk plays. Drives with 2 and 3 yard gains with an occasional 8 yard gain won't cut it. The Devil O has to be capable of gaining 20 or 30 yards in one play repeatedly to damage the Bronco D's psyche.

 

 

[theguru]