Cincinnati Reds Off Season 2017-2018

[LRCW]

Hamilton - give him 1st half of 2018 batting bottom of order to see what he gives you. He is not suited to leadoff with his low OBP. If no progression there, try to deal him at deadline as the experiment is over here and someone else may believe that they can change him. Also, a pinch runner / defensive replacement at low cost and under team control could be a very valuable piece of the puzzle for a contender.

 

Winker - agree he looks "ready for prime time." That's why I leave him, Senzel and others at AAA until the pitching staff has congealed. Why start / keep their clocks running for a non-contending team. Mid-market teams like the Reds have to try to time everything for a 2-4 yr. window to succeed. Letting him develop up here when the pitching staff is still far away just prevents such synchronization.

 

Jury is still out on whether Schebler is "ready for prime time," so keep giving him MLB ABs until you know. That puts Duvall, Hamilton and Schebler in my OF until at least the deadline.

 

Looks like you got your wish on Barnhart. I agree with the signing.

 

 

So you just wanna keep Castillo in the minors until we learn for sure that Romano, Mahle and Stephenson are ready to be successful in the ML?

[UKMustangFan]

Count me as one who doesn't see the staff as far off as most...

 

 

Castillo: 3-7, 3.12 ERA in 15 starts

Stephenson: 5-3, 3.64 ERA in 9 starts

Romano: 5-6, 4.07 ERA in 14 starts

Mahle: 1-2, 2.70 ERA in 4 starts

[ColonelCrazy]

Count me as one who doesn't see the staff as far off as most...

 

 

Castillo: 3-7, 3.12 ERA in 15 starts

Stephenson: 5-3, 3.64 ERA in 9 starts

Romano: 5-6, 4.07 ERA in 14 starts

Mahle: 1-2, 2.70 ERA in 4 starts

 

I'm with you. Bailey has had a few brights spots but has mostly struggled this year. I wish Desclafani were healthy, but at this point he cannot be relied on to pitch effectively in 2018 either.

 

Garrett showed some promise early in the season on the ML level. The four (4) you mentioned above have had some major league success, too. They're not going to be a WS contender but I'm actually encouraged going into 2018 that they can take a step forward.

[UKMustangFan]

I'm with you. Bailey has had a few brights spots but has mostly struggled this year. I wish Desclafani were healthy, but at this point he cannot be relied on to pitch effectively in 2018 either.

 

Garrett showed some promise early in the season on the ML level. The four (4) you mentioned above have had some major league success, too. They're not going to be a WS contender but I'm actually encouraged going into 2018 that they can take a step forward.

 

I could see them being next year's version of the Twins this season.

[ColonelCrazy]

I could see them being next year's version of the Twins this season.

 

Interesting comparison. The Reds don't have a front line starter as good as Ervin Santana, but outside of Santana (and maybe Berrios) the Twins' rotation is very mediocre.

 

The Twins are 3 games over .500 (I think) but basically out of playoff contention. I'd take that next year from the 2018 Reds.

[UKMustangFan]

Interesting comparison. The Reds don't have a front line starter as good as Ervin Santana, but outside of Santana (and maybe Berrios) the Twins' rotation is very mediocre.

 

The Twins are 3 games over .500 (I think) but basically out of playoff contention. I'd take that next year from the 2018 Reds.

 

They have a 2.5 game lead for the 2nd AL Wild Card.

[Cuban Missile]

Interesting comparison. The Reds don't have a front line starter as good as Ervin Santana, but outside of Santana (and maybe Berrios) the Twins' rotation is very mediocre.

 

The Twins are 3 games over .500 (I think) but basically out of playoff contention. I'd take that next year from the 2018 Reds.

 

Twins have a 2 1/2 game lead over LAA/Texas for the 2nd wildcard spot.

[ColonelCrazy]

They have a 2.5 game lead for the 2nd AL Wild Card.

 

Twins have a 2 1/2 game lead over LAA/Texas for the 2nd wildcard spot.

 

Ooooopsy, obviously didn't realize that.

[Just Hangin Around]

Count me as one who doesn't see the staff as far off as most...

 

 

Castillo: 3-7, 3.12 ERA in 15 starts

Stephenson: 5-3, 3.64 ERA in 9 starts

Romano: 5-6, 4.07 ERA in 14 starts

Mahle: 1-2, 2.70 ERA in 4 starts

 

I agree and if they can start the year with a healthy Disco and Finnegan maybe just maybe this staff won't be so bad. Even Bailey might be better starting from scratch next spring but who knows what he will give you for the last 2 years of his contract.

[jpa2825]

^So the guy that you think is ready for the big leagues you want to keep in the minors, but the guy who you aren't sure is ready should be getting everyday ABs?

 

That doesn't make much sense to me. Why wouldn't you give ABs to the guy who is ready?

 

Mid-market clubs like the Reds have a 2-5 yr. window where they have to put all the pieces together and have them perform in the MLB at the same time. Otherwise, through ARB or FA, the players become too expensive to keep enough of them to contend. Cubs did it with Bryant (i.e., keeping him in AAA when he was likely ready for MLB ABs) and took heat for it. They don't even have to worry about $ like the Reds do and knew it was the right thing to do.

 

For example, if you play Winker and Senzel and others full time in 2018 without having confidence in the pitching staff, you're just narrowing your window. Instead of thinking about Winker and Senzel "burning" their 1st year where they are fully controlled in 2018, think about them wasting their ARB2 year doing so b/c that's what it will mean.

 

Do you risk that Winker and Senzel might not be immediate contributors (Hamilton, Peraza, Schebler, Suarez, etc.) as well? Sure. My contention is that when you don't have / won't spend the $ to sign big FAs or rent players at the deadline, you're forced to rebuild and try to hit that 2-5 yr. window with your best talent.

[jpa2825]

So you just wanna keep Castillo in the minors until we learn for sure that Romano, Mahle and Stephenson are ready to be successful in the ML?

 

See Post #70.

[UKMustangFan]

Mid-market clubs like the Reds have a 2-5 yr. window where they have to put all the pieces together and have them perform in the MLB at the same time. Otherwise, through ARB or FA, the players become too expensive to keep enough of them to contend. Cubs did it with Bryant (i.e., keeping him in AAA when he was likely ready for MLB ABs) and took heat for it. They don't even have to worry about $ like the Reds do and knew it was the right thing to do.

 

For example, if you play Winker and Senzel and others full time in 2018 without having confidence in the pitching staff, you're just narrowing your window. Instead of thinking about Winker and Senzel "burning" their 1st year where they are fully controlled in 2018, think about them wasting their ARB2 year doing so b/c that's what it will mean.

 

Do you risk that Winker and Senzel might not be immediate contributors (Hamilton, Peraza, Schebler, Suarez, etc.) as well? Sure. My contention is that when you don't have / won't spend the $ to sign big FAs or rent players at the deadline, you're forced to rebuild and try to hit that 2-5 yr. window with your best talent.

 

That year the "Cubs did it with Bryant" he played 151 games and got over 550 ABs. So if that's what you're meaning, sure, go for it. Otherwise it's crazy.

[jpa2825]

That year the "Cubs did it with Bryant" he played 151 games and got over 550 ABs. So if that's what you're meaning, sure, go for it. Otherwise it's crazy.

 

2015 was the year. Cubs left Bryant in AAA to get another year of control and didn't bring him up until a date when, if he stayed there, he wouldn't get a full year of service time. Bryant / Union grieved it. Grievance is pending.

 

Of course, YMMV.

[dpeevh]

I don't think the Reds should change a thing.

 

Seriously though, I remember watching Barnhart at AA Pensacola play two games while we were on vacation on the Emerald Coast four years ago and thought there was no way he would ever sniff the majors. Watched him play a three game series in July and was impressed at his development. I also liked what I saw in Suarez. They should have moved Feldman and Bailey at the trade deadline.

 

I think they are leaving Price in to manage while the building takes place and then like the Cubs and Indians, bring in a high profile manager to lead the young uns once they are in place. Ron Gardenhire and Freddi Gonzalez come to mind.

 

So as a GM of another team you would have traded for Homer Bailey coming off basically two years of being on the DL and with the contract he has? You would have been fired the next day

[dpeevh]

Interesting thoughts here. First guy I move on from is Billy Hamilton unless he is used as a defensive replacement late in games or a part time player. He is like having another pitcher in your lineup. The little bit I have seen of Winker, he needs to stick next year and play most everyday. The guy exudes confidence in the batters box. Suarez is inked long term and stays at third base or you trade him now. If I do not have Hamilton in the lineup, I can live with Peraza and put him at shortstop. He needs to work with someone about understanding and commanding the strike zone. Ervin sticks as a 4th or 5th outfielder. Not sold on Schebler being an everyday player, but do feel that Duvall needs to be kept around because the Reds do not have many guys that are going to drive in 100 runs a year on average.

 

Starting pitching is Castillo, Disco, Bailey, Romano and Mahle from what I have seen. Finnegan goes to the bullpen along with Peralta giving me two solid lefties. Lorenzen and Iglesias have obviously earned their stripes.

 

I make Tucker Barnhart my number one catcher and Mesoraco is nothing but a backup if even on the team. If not, they need to find a backup catcher because Turner is in way over his head.

 

If you think Lorenzen has earned his stripes you're watching something different than I am. He's gotten no one out 2nd half of season and his arrogance is overwhelming