Cincinnati Reds Off Season 2017-2018

[ColonelCrazy]

Why pay him anything?

 

I'd extend the qualifying offer of $18 million. If he accepts it, then you have your shortstop for 2018. This would allow Senzel another half season to develop in the minors (and perhaps more importantly, it delays starting his MLB service time). If he rejects the offer because he's looking for a big-time, multi-year deal, then the Reds get a compensation pick.

 

If the Reds think Senzel is ready to begin 2018 in the big leagues and Suarez (or Peraza) is capable of playing SS on a daily basis, then I'd be okay letting Cozart walk with nothing in exchange. But, as I mentioned above, I personally doubt whether Suarez or Peraza can handle shortstop defensively.

[HammerTime]

I'd extend the qualifying offer of $18 million. If he accepts it, then you have your shortstop for 2018. This would allow Senzel another half season to develop in the minors (and perhaps more importantly, it delays starting his MLB service time). If he rejects the offer because he's looking for a big-time, multi-year deal, then the Reds get a compensation pick.

 

If the Reds think Senzel is ready to begin 2018 in the big leagues and Suarez (or Peraza) is capable of playing SS on a daily basis, then I'd be okay letting Cozart walk with nothing in exchange. But, as I mentioned above, I personally doubt whether Suarez or Peraza can handle shortstop defensively.

I think I'm in this camp as well. I like the idea of Suarez at 2B better. I'm not sure we can count on Scooter for 25 HR 90 RBI and a .350 OBP next year. If Cozart accepts it, it's only a year and like you said chances are they won't be contending and you could try to trade him. I don't see him settling for a 1 year deal at this point when he's got a chance to secure 30M+ from someone.

[plantmanky]

All that time fixing Suarez defense at one position and now you move him?

[Jack of all Trades]

Interesting thoughts here. First guy I move on from is Billy Hamilton unless he is used as a defensive replacement late in games or a part time player. He is like having another pitcher in your lineup. The little bit I have seen of Winker, he needs to stick next year and play most everyday. The guy exudes confidence in the batters box. Suarez is inked long term and stays at third base or you trade him now. If I do not have Hamilton in the lineup, I can live with Peraza and put him at shortstop. He needs to work with someone about understanding and commanding the strike zone. Ervin sticks as a 4th or 5th outfielder. Not sold on Schebler being an everyday player, but do feel that Duvall needs to be kept around because the Reds do not have many guys that are going to drive in 100 runs a year on average.

 

Starting pitching is Castillo, Disco, Bailey, Romano and Mahle from what I have seen. Finnegan goes to the bullpen along with Peralta giving me two solid lefties. Lorenzen and Iglesias have obviously earned their stripes.

 

I make Tucker Barnhart my number one catcher and Mesoraco is nothing but a backup if even on the team. If not, they need to find a backup catcher because Turner is in way over his head.

[ColonelCrazy]

Billy Hamilton is not in my everyday starting lineup, either. I'd be willing to give Peraza or Schebler a start at earning the job. Hamilton probably sticks around, but in a utility role & defensive replacement. I'd have Winker & Duvall at the corner outfield spots.

 

Scooter is arbitration eligible & can expect a decent raise. He isn't a free agent until 2020. If I'm the Reds, I see what type of trade market exists for Scooter. He had a career year and those numbers are extremely impressive given the modest $2.5 million he made this season. I suspect his production in Cincinnati far outweighs his trade value (much like Cozart), so I'd imagine he'll be the starting 2nd baseman in 2018.

 

Suarez is also arbitration eligible and will be in line for a big raise. He made about $575,000 this season. No idea what he'll earn in arbitration. Reds may consider dealing him (Jean Segura brought back Taijuan Walker in exchange) or negotiating a long-term deal (probably 4-5 year deal at roughly $10-$12M per year average).

[HammerTime]

Even with Hamiltons struggles he's relatively cheap and an above average replacement level player. You stick him 9th in the order and live with the results. If he's leading off he's hurting the team IMO.

[UKMustangFan]

I don't get the Duvall/Schebler fascination. Both guys are meh...

[HammerTime]

Adam Duvall leads all MLB in at bats with runners on base and 2nd with runners in scoring position.

 

.234 .272 .411 .684 with runners in scoring position. He drove in 100 by default.

 

He had 158 at bats with runners in scoring position, 61 RBIs out of that.

 

The nest red was Suarez with 124 ABs and 58 RBIs.

 

 

Just for fun Votto had 94 ABs and 57 RBI. 1.217 OPS in that situation, which is ridiculous.

[UKMustangFan]

Everyone wants to move on from Hamilton, but he hits for a better average and gets on base at a better clip than Duvall.

[Jack of all Trades]

Adam Duvall leads all MLB in at bats with runners on base and 2nd with runners in scoring position.

 

.234 .272 .411 .684 with runners in scoring position. He drove in 100 by default.

 

He had 158 at bats with runners in scoring position, 61 RBIs out of that.

 

The nest red was Suarez with 124 ABs and 58 RBIs.

 

Is that this year, last or both? And how many years did Jay Bruce drive in 100 runs for the Reds?

[UKMustangFan]

Bruce drove in 100 runs once with the Reds. Also had 99 once and 97 another time.

[HammerTime]

Is that this year, last or both? And how many years did Jay Bruce drive in 100 runs for the Reds?

 

This year. Bruce did it once 2013 and he was 5th in MLB in at bats with runners in scoring position. .825 OPS

[UKMustangFan]

This year. Bruce did it once 2013 and he was 5th in MLB in at bats with runners in scoring position. .825 OPS

 

FWIW, Bruce hit .262 with a .383 OBP with RISP that year. Knocked in 77 runs in 172 ABs

[HammerTime]

Out of the top 30 guys in at bats with runners in scoring position. Duvall has the 2nd lowest OPS.

[UKMustangFan]

Out of the top 30 guys in at bats with runners in scoring position. Duvall has the 2nd lowest OPS.

 

I'm actually surprised he's not dead last.