Can American Pharoah win the Triple Crown?

[Voice of Reason]

Last 9 Belmont winners did not even run in the Preakness.

 

Do you know how many of them ran in the Derby?

 

Decided to do my own research:

 

2014 Tonalist ..... no Derby or Preakness (lung infection caused him to miss them)

 

2013 Palace Malice ..... Derby 12th

 

2012 Union Rags ..... Derby 7th

 

2011 Ruler on Ice ..... no Derby

 

2010 Drosselmeyer ..... insufficient earnings, did not qualify for Derby

 

2009 Summer Bird ..... Derby 6th

 

2008 Da'Tara ..... no Derby; did not win another race after stopping Big Brown's 3x crown bid in Belmont

 

2007 Rags to Riches ..... no Derby; a filly whose first start against males was in the Belmont

 

2006 Jazil ..... Derby 4th

 

So only 4 of the last 9 Belmont winners ran in the Derby.

Edited May 20, 2015 by Voice of Reason

[frankdracman23]

Why is that? Is it because it is too taxing to run both or is it because trainers that train horses to run 1 1/2 miles don't want to run the same horse 1 1/16 miles too??

 

Preakness is 1 and 3/16 miles. Just 1/16 shorter than the Derby 1 and 1/4 distance.

 

Some horses have set-backs in training or just are not ready for the Derby in May but are ready for the Belmont. Others try the Derby and then point towards the Belmont because they think their horse will be rested and be better off training up to the Belmont. And they do not think they can beat the Derby winner and others in the Preakness.

 

The strange thing about the Belmont............it is not really a closers race even though it is a mile and a half. The pace makes the race and the Belmont pace will often by less than Derby or Preakness. And I would have to look it up by a very high percentage of Belmont winners on or very near the lead at the top of the stretch.

 

And the other strange thing is that Belmont is unique in its size of the track. Most US tracks are mile tracks.

[Voice of Reason]

Since I did the research, a trivia question. Only two horses in the last 20 years have won both the Preakness and the Belmont. Name them.

[frankdracman23]

This is from before last year's race but here are some tips from Bloodhorse:

 

 

1. Deep closers [generally] don’t win the Belmont

 

Although in theory the twelve-furlong distance of the Belmont Stakes should give deep closers more time to catch up, the reality has generally been the opposite. Particularly in the past four years, early speed has proven a huge asset in the Belmont, with no winner coming from more than five lengths behind at any call, and leaders/stalkers routinely winning or hitting the board.

 

 

2. Non-stakes winners are welcome

 

While one would think that a race as prestigious as the Belmont would be dominated by horses with previous stakes victories, that has not been the case in recent years. Believe it or not, six of the last eight Belmont Stakes winners (Jazil, Da’ Tara, Summer Bird, Drosselmeyer, Ruler On Ice, and Palace Malice) had never won a stakes race prior to their victory in the Test of Champions.

 

3. Horses that lose the Derby and skip the Preakness have had great success in the Belmont

 

Since 2000, Commendable, Empire Maker, Birdstone, Jazil, Summer Bird, Union Rags, and Palace Malice all won the Belmont Stakes after losing the Kentucky Derby and skipping the Preakness Stakes. The benefits of passing on the Preakness to have a fresher horse for the Belmont are obvious, and the success rate (50%) of these horses has been striking.

 

4. Dosage is worth a look

 

I know that many people don’t use Dosage in handicapping races anymore, but after examining the pedigrees of recent Belmont winners, I found that the last ten winners all had a Dosage Index of 3.00 or lower.

 

5. Expect the unexpected

 

Since 2000, the average odds on the winner of the Belmont Stakes has been just under 17.50-1, with eight horses finding the winner’s circle at double-digit odds: Palace Malice (13.80-1), Ruler On Ice (24.75-1), Drosselmeyer (13-1), Summer Bird (11.90-1), Da’ Tara (38.50-1), Birdstone (36-1), Sarava (70.25-1), and Commendable (18.80-1). This trend has been particularly noteworthy since 2008, as five of the last six Belmont winners went off at higher than 10-1. So if the horse you like in the Belmont is being overlooked in the betting, don’t be concerned—consider it a good thing!

[OlDog75]

Since I did the research, a trivia question. Only two horses in the last 20 years have won both the Preakness and the Belmont. Name them.

 

2001 Point Given

2005 Afleet Alex

[frankdracman23]

Another bit of trivia. Little Current in 1974 won the Preakness by 7 and the Belmont by 7......but had finished 5th in the KY Derby mainly due to being behind rough traffic in a 23 horse KY Derby field. After that year the Derby was limited to 20 starters. So there could have easily been a Triple Crown winner in 1973, 1974, 1977, 1978.

[doomer]

Thanks for the discussions! I am enjoying the read.

[doomer]

Just a plug here, but Silver Charm (Derby/Preakness) and Sarava (Belmont) are at Old Friends Farm in Georgetown right outside of Lexington if anyone ever wants to visit. oldfriendsequine.org

[Getslow]

2001 Point Given

2005 Afleet Alex

 

Don't remember much about Point Given, but Afleet Alex was third by less than a length in that 2005 Derby. Got locked in on the final turn behind the lead group that had set a blistering early pace but was trailing off and that went four wide; so as he headed into the stretch had to zoom out wide to get around them. He zoomed past all of them but that extra effort and those extra steps probably cost him a Triple Crown.

 

Afleet Alex won the Preakness by almost five lengths (despite getting tripped up by another horse) and won the Belmont by over seven. That horse and Charismatic provided probably the two best Triple Crown attempts of my -- albeit short -- lifetime.

[Getslow]

I am not a horse racing expert but Pharoah's times are sssslllloooowwww. That is where I am coming from.

 

The points system of the last few years has had the result of there not being any more cheap speed in the Derby to set a blistering pace in the first 1/2 mile and then die off in the final turn as the distance horses hit their stride. I think we'll continue to see average times slow in the Derby.

 

Besides... Assault, Citation, and Gallant Fox all won the Preakness with times greater than two minutes. Nobody remembers.

[InItToWinIt]

Not sure if he can win, but I do know a helluva lot of money will be won or lost that day (mine included). :lol:

[frankdracman23]

Here are the odds in Vegas as of now:

 

2015 Belmont Stakes Odds

 

Horse ML Odds

American Pharoah 1/1

Frosted 9/2

Materiality 8/1

Mubtaahij 16/1

Carpe Diem 18/1

Divining Rod 20/1

Madefromlucky 20/1

Keen Ice 25/1

Tale Of Verve 25/1

Conquest Curlinate 30/1

War Story 30/1

Frammento 35/1

[Wireman]

Awesome, I can't wait to win a ton of money on Tale of Verve.

[frankdracman23]

Awesome, I can't wait to win a ton of money on Tale of Verve.

 

You will have to do so without the same jockey that rode Tale in the Preakness. He has jumped to Frosted.

[75center]

Unless AP is a very tired horse I didn't see anything that would make me think Tale can make up the 7 lengths difference of the Preakness. If AP is beat I think it will be a horse that didn't run that day. I just didn't see AP exerting himself much which leads me to think he will fire on Belmont day.