Post Your NBA Mock Lottery, Sleeper, & Bust

[JokersWild24]

Post your NBA Mock Lottery, as well as the name(s) of players you think are the biggest sleepers and busts (don't have to be drafted in the lottery).

 

Draft Order:

 

1. Cleveland

2. Milwaukee

3. Philadelphia

4. Orlando

5. Utah

6. Boston

7. Los Angeles

8. Sacramento

9. Charlotte

10. Philadelphia

11. Denver

12. Orlando

13. Minnesota

14. Phoenix

Edited June 18, 2014 by JokersWild24

[JokersWild24]

1. Cleveland - Jabari Parker

Cleveland makes a second Duke player the #1 overall pick in 4 years, and in the process, probably don’t hurt themselves in the eyes of fellow Duke alum Kyrie Irving, who just got a max deal, and is given even more security knowing they are invested in him. The most NBA-ready player in the draft, the Cavaliers will not only have someone to add to their solid young core, they will also have even more reason to tell LeBron they are ready to win now in attempt to get the King to come back home.

 

 

2. Milwaukee - Andrew Wiggins

The Bucks need a game changer and Wiggins is that. I think they take him over Parker, even if both are there. If Parker or Wiggins goes first, they’ll take whichever one remains. Wiggins is a special talent, and is someone would could be a real game changer for a franchise like Milwaukee which doesn’t have a great history and isn’t a free agent “destination”. The gamble that Embiid's back holds up and that he keeps evolving into the player some think he can become is too great for a franchise like the Bucks who simply cannot afford to miss on a pick like this.

 

 

3. Philadelphia - Joel Embiid

The best of the “top 3” remaining will go to Philadelphia. Embiid, Michael Carter-Williams, and a healthy Nerlens Noel give the 76ers some real length and defensive presence. They also own the #10 pick, and will use it on a guard or wing to round out the lineup (unless, of course, it is Wiggins or Parker who land here and the deck gets shuffled somewhat in who is available at #10).

 

 

4. Orlando - Dante Exum

With Aaron Afflalo, Mo Harkless, and Tobias Harris, the Magic have a logjam at the forward positions. Nikola Vucevic is an underrated center. They need help at the guard spot and Exum can play either position, so they’ll pair him Victor Oladipo and go from there.

 

 

5. Utah - Noah Vonleh

Vonleh could end up moving into the 4 spot (or even the 3 spot if Emiid’s back doesn’t check out), but given Orlando’s logjam of forwards, they’ll pass on him unless someone makes them an offer and trades up to snatch up Vonleh. Utah’s interior defense was horrific last year, so Vonleh is a perfect fit. He's not the greatest leaper, but he will battle for position and is a legit 6'10 with a 7'4 wingspan. He moves very well for his size, showing great agility and fluid movements. He shot nearly 50% from 3 in college (48.5% on an average of 1 attempt per game). Strong kid who knows how to use his body to carve out space and draw fouls on the interior as well. Has legit range on his shot.

 

 

6. Boston - Julius Randle

Boston passes on Marcus Smart as he doesn't fit with Rondo and Bradley. If they take him or Exum with their pick, it probably means someone is getting shipped out. Randle may or may not be the best player available, but he fits a need for the C’s and doesn’t make them so much better immediately that it slows rebuilding plans (read: tanking for another year and having a chance to snag a ’15 pick that will land one of the incoming studs like Duke big man Jahlil Okafor, SMU guard Emmanuel Mudiay, Kansas forward Cliff Alexander, or Kentucky point-forward Karl Towns).

 

 

7. Los Angeles - Aaron Gordon

La-La Land is the type of place to emphasize style over substance. That’s exactly what the Lakers will be doing if they take Gordon here. Both LA teams will have an athletic forward who can dunk the ball, but struggles to score if pushed out onto the floor.

 

 

8. Sacramento - Marcus Smart

Sacramento takes Marcus Smart and pairs him with undersized guard Isaiah Thomas, emerging shooter Ben McLemore, and sophomore Ray McCallum. Those guards, along with forwards Rudy Gay, Derrick Williams, and Carl Landry combine with center DeMarcus Cousins, who is now emerging as one of the best players in the NBA, to form a very formidable and athletic team who makes a real push for the #8 seed in the West.

 

 

9. Charlotte- Doug McDermott

Someone will reach on McDermott, and I’ll say its’ Charlotte. We're talking about the team who reached on Cody Zeller last season, and with all due respect to our man MKG, who defines what a warrior is, generally doesn't draft very well.

 

 

10. Philadelphia - Gary Harris

A guy I really like, Harris would blend well with Michael Carter-Williams to form a big, athletic backcourt. Add him to the core I mentioned above in the section on Philly drafting Embiid, and you have the makings of a young team that can defend and could be really good one day.

 

 

11. Denver - Dario Saric

I’ve written more about Saric below. He seems like a guy who’d fit well under a Coach like Brian Shaw because of the way he runs the floor. Denver has a ton of forwards right now, and shooting guard is probably a bigger concern for them than any other position.

 

 

12. Orlando - Elfrid Payton

Orlando needs guard help, and even though I have them taking Exum above, they could still use the depth that a guard like Payton or Tyler Ennis would provide. Ennis may be a better fit because he’s seen as more of a pure point than Payton, but Payton’s assist to turnover numbers in college are nothing to scoff at either and he may be a more capable defender as well.

 

 

13. Minnesota - Nik Stauskas

The best pure shooter in the draft (with all apologies to Doug McDermott) goes to Minnesota and tries to improve the accuracy for a team that ranked as one of the worst in shooting the deep ball last season.

 

 

14. Phoenix - James Young

Call it a homer pick if you must. The fact of the matter is that Phoenix has a ton of young talent, and with a healthy Alex Len, will be even better next season. With 3 picks in the first round of the deepest draft in years, it is widely expected in league circles that the team tries to package these picks to move up and grab a real game changer. With no one knowing who’ll actually wind up picking in this spot, I’ll slot in one of the best athletes and guys with the highest upsides in the whole thing in James Young.

 

 

 

Biggest Sleepers: Elfrid Payton, Dario Saric, Noah Vonleh, Marcus Smart, Gary Harris

 

Biggest Busts: Aaron Gordon, Doug McDermott, Kyle Anderson, Joel Embiid

 

 

My logic:

 

Noah Vonleh is underrated right now, but might end up shooting up draft boards and could even end up as the 3rd best player in the draft.

 

Elfrid Payton is another guy who is underrated now, but given his size and ability, could be the next guy like Damian Lillard (small school guard whose scoring ability carried their teams in college and whose physical and athletic ability translates well to the professional game). It's usually a good sign when a school that has never won starts to rack up wins under one star player with marginal talent around him, and that's what Payton has done.

 

Dario Saric is an international guy without lots of hype, but could end up making a splash. He’s a point forward type 4 man that NBA teams love. How he fits will probably depend on the system and style of the team he lands on. He’s from Croatia, a country that has produced a few successful NBA talents already. He’s pretty versatile offensively and shows a nice feel for the game. He dribbles and passes well, plus shows a high basketball IQ by doing little things like making backcuts, etc. If he improves his range, he could end up being a real game chancer as some franchise’s #2 or 3 player (i.e., the 2nd or 3rd best player on a championship team, ala Pau Gasol). He may never be the best player on a playoff team, but you need guys like him to win, and

 

Marcus Smart will slip to someone and be a game changer. A super-athletic guy with brute strength who can play either guard position, Smart’s physicality should translate well to the NBA.

 

IF Gary Harris can stay healthy (and notice the ‘big IF’), then he has the talent and athleticism to be a solid 2-guard in the league. Since it’s widely held that the 2 or 3 positions are some of the toughest in the game to play, finding someone who can do it well is at a premium.

 

 

Aaron Gordon is athletic, but not very skilled. People will be amazed with his high flying dunks that punish rims or hard blocks, but he doesn’t do much else.

 

Kyle Anderson is too big and slow to play the point, but refuses to believe it. UCLA supposedly had 3 first round picks on their roster last season in Anderson, Jordan Adams, and Zach Levine, but they didn’t have the record to show for it.

 

Joel Embiid might not be a bust in terms of overall talent, and I hate labeling a guy as a ‘bust’ because he got injured later on, but the warning signs for Embiid are already there as far as health goes and might end up being a reason he slips. You hope the best for any kid, but caveat emptor here folks.

 

Doug McDermott is a guy I don’t understand the love for. We’ve seen plenty of slow white guys that were great in college but busts in the pros. People have finally stopped labeling guys “the next Larry Bird”, but someone will always take a chance on a guy like McDermott, Adam Morrison, Danny Ferry (the #2 overall pick out of Duke who had a stellar college career), Luke Jackson, or even Luke Ridnour. Sure, guys like Kyle Korver and JJ Redick have had nice careers as specialist shooters in the NBA and while McDermott may do the same, right now it looks more likely that someone is going to spend a lottery pick on him thinking he’s something he’s not. I know he's skilled, but I don't understand the love for him in such a deep draft. If I could get him late in the first round (say 23-30 range), then I'm thrilled, but someone will reach on him and leave a guy like Elfrid Payton on the board that ends up making a GM look stupid.

Edited June 18, 2014 by JokersWild24

[JokersWild24]

Another guy that I think isn't getting enough love right now is Duke's Rodney Hood.

[Jumper_Dad]

Any chance Wiggins drops to the 3rd pick?

[JokersWild24]

Any chance Wiggins drops to the 3rd pick?

 

That's where he was in Chad Ford's latest mock draft.

 

He's saying that the Cavaliers had Joel Embiid in for a workout and that he really wowed them. Ford seems to think that Cleveland is of the opinion that Embiid's back isn't a concern either.

 

As good as Parker was in college and as much potential as Embiid has, I think that when it's all said and done, Wiggins is going to be the best NBA player of the group. Highest ceiling and he really started to come to life toward the end of the season last year.

[Jumper_Dad]

That's where he was in Chad Ford's latest mock draft.

 

He's saying that the Cavaliers had Joel Embiid in for a workout and that he really wowed them. Ford seems to think that Cleveland is of the opinion that Embiid's back isn't a concern either.

 

As good as Parker was in college and as much potential as Embiid has, I think that when it's all said and done, Wiggins is going to be the best NBA player of the group. Highest ceiling and he really started to come to life toward the end of the season last year.

Sixers could be on the verge of something special in a couple of seasons, especially if they can fill a starting position/need with the 10th pick as well.

[JokersWild24]

Sixers could be on the verge of something special in a couple of seasons, especially if they can fill a starting position/need with the 10th pick as well.

 

Yep. They are in the best position in this draft. No worries about taking the "wrong" guy because they get the player who falls to them and no one is going to scrutinize the pick.

 

They also get to pick up a solid player at #10, which is really probably going to end up being like picking at #9 considering Charlotte is ahead of them.

 

Mathmatically, if they want them, they're going to get 1 of the following to add to whoever they get at #3: Exum, Vonleh, Randle, Gordon, Smart, Payton, Saric, Harris, McDermott, Stauskas, Young, or anyone else in the draft.

 

I think it's safe to say that Exum and Vonleh are going to be well out of play at #10. That means they are probably looking at one of the five from: Smart or Gordon (the three most likely to be gone), Randle (assuming the foot issue doesn't make him slide, he'd be in the last group), Saric, McDermott, or Payton.

 

 

They already have Michael Carter-Williams, Thaddeus Young, Tony Wroten, and Nerlens Noel. In addition to that, guys like Holis Thompson, Brandon Davies, Elliot Williams, and Arnett Moultrie are some young guys that gave them minutes at one time or another last season and may or may not end up being part of the long term plans for the team.

[MentschTrachtGottLacht]

...........

 

I neither agree with, nor fully understand, your take on Doug McDermott. So every white player coming out of college is the same? Doug isn't slow, is really athletic, and can score on all three levels. His on-court production speaks for itself, but look up his measurable from the combine and compare him to non "slow white guys" and see what bubbles up.

[MentschTrachtGottLacht]

Sixers could be on the verge of something special in a couple of seasons, especially if they can fill a starting position/need with the 10th pick as well.

 

Sixers have been and always will be my favorite team, dating back to 1982. You're exactly right, they could be on the cusp of the next high point in the franchise's history. They are in great shape Cap-wise, I believe they are a possible landing spot for LeBron, and in my opinion, they'll come out of the draft with Jabari Parker and either Gary Harris or Nik Stauskas. The East is so bad, and Michael C-W is so good, it wouldn't take a whole lot to elevate them into the top 4-6 teams in the Eastern Conference.

[JokersWild24]

...........

 

I neither agree with, nor fully understand, your take on Doug McDermott. So every white player coming out of college is the same? Doug isn't slow, is really athletic, and can score on all three levels. His on-court production speaks for itself, but look up his measurable from the combine and compare him to non "slow white guys" and see what bubbles up.

 

 

Admittedly, that was a bad and over-broad generalization on my part.

 

I just worry he's not going to be able to defend the position he's going to have to play at the next level, hence the slow foot speed. I know he's incredibly skilled and am thrilled if my team gets him at #25 because it's a steal, but he's just one of those guys that, from the perspective of raw talent, will struggle to make a huge difference on the lottery team that reaches for him. Put him on a team like the Spurs, Clippers, Thunder, or Heat and he's going to be able to do some things. He's easily the guy you want there, but I'm hesitant to even take him at #14 if I'm Phoenix.

 

The reports I've seen have him as 6'6.25 without shoes, a 6'9.25 wingspan, and weighing out to 218 lbs. Standing reach of 8'7, body fat of 7.1%. 28.5 standing vertical and 36.5 max.

 

Offensively, he'll be fine and will be big and skilled enough to get his shot off. That's not the part of his game I worry about though.

 

I know combine numbers aren't the end-all, be-all, but who does he defend if he goes to a Sacramento, Charlotte, Philadelphia, Detroit, etc.?

 

This wouldn't be the first time I've been accused of favoring players who are overly athletic and have higher ceilings, but I think that when you look at trying to adequately replace a guy like Smart, Harris, or Payton, you'll have a harder time than if you want to replace a McDermott.

 

A better way to put it might be to say that, if somehow, a team like the Clips or Thunder find a way to trade into the range you see McDermott projected at right now, then I don't have nearly as much of a problem with it as I do if you are a lottery bound team who is looking for a real game changer.

[Jumper_Dad]

Sixers have been and always will be my favorite team, dating back to 1982. You're exactly right, they could be on the cusp of the next high point in the franchise's history. They are in great shape Cap-wise, I believe they are a possible landing spot for LeBron, and in my opinion, they'll come out of the draft with Jabari Parker and either Gary Harris or Nik Stauskas. The East is so bad, and Michael C-W is so good, it wouldn't take a whole lot to elevate them into the top 4-6 teams in the Eastern Conference.

As a long time Sixers fan (albeit on the down low the last many years) I'd love to see Wiggins and Randle scenario playout...If Wiggins ends up being the STUD he has been projected to be they would have a solid young team around him and could be really good in 2 to 3 seasons.

[JokersWild24]

Just read that the Lakers owe their 2015 first round pick to the Suns (part of the Steve Nash package) and their 2017 First Round Pick to the Magic (part of the Dwight Howard package). Needless to say, they really, really need this year's pick to pan out.

[BaseballIsLife]

Elfrid Payton is my sleeper of this draft. I really hope the Kings draft him.

[D-Rob]

1. Cleveland - Andrew Wiggins

The one of two safe picks here.

2. Milwaukee - Jabari Parker

The other safe pick. Him and Wiggins could flip flop.

3. Philadelphia - Dante Exum

Already have Nerlens so I could see them trading down for a Randle, Gordon, etc. If not, take the best guard.

4. Orlando - Marcus Smart

Take a Top 5 PG and move Olidepo back to SG.

5. Utah - Joel Embiid

I could see them being the one to move up for Embiid, if he isn't there they take Vonleh who has a high ceiling.

6. Boston - Zach LaVine

The 1st stunner of the draft but the Celtics have plenty of posts, really need an explosive guard to pair with Rondo.

7. Los Angeles - Noah Vonleh

Lakers take the best player on the board.

8. Sacramento - Aaron Gordon

Get that explosive 4 to pair with the bruiser Cousins.

9. Charlotte - Gary Harris

Hornets would take Randle here except they don't need another post player.

10. Philadelphia - Julius Randle

Secure your frontcourt with Noel for the next 10 years.

11. Denver - Rodney Hood

Length and athleticism will fit well in Brian Shaw's system

12. Orlando - Dario Saric

Drafted a guard earlier, now get a stretch 4.

13. Minnesota - Doug McDermott

As said, someone will reach and the Wolves have a history.

14. Phoenix - James Young

Could really add some scoring punch to that rising team.

[MJAlltheWay24]

What time does the draft start on Thursday?