History Tells Us....

The National Champion will be a team that is top 20 in both offensive and defensive efficiency.

That being said the National Champion will come from the below group:

Duke

Gonzaga

Virginia

Kentucky

Michigan State

Virginia Tech

Agree? Anyone not listed have a shot?

Add Tennessee to that list and I'd say you're safe betting that group.

Add Tennessee to that list and I'd say you're safe betting that group.

They're #3 in offensive efficiency, but #40 in defensive. Was a little surprised to see how low they were on defense.

The only outlier going back all the way to 2002 was the 2014 UConn team. They were #10 defensively, but #39 offensively.

3 teams just on the outskirts of top 20 in both are Louisville, North Carolina, and Kansas.

The National Champion will be a team that is top 20 in both offensive and defensive efficiency.

 

That being said the National Champion will come from the below group:

 

Duke

Gonzaga

Virginia

Kentucky

Michigan State

Virginia Tech

 

Agree? Anyone not listed have a shot?

That list looks short this year. How many teams are there usually on the list? Also, the list can keep changing, right?

That list looks short this year. How many teams are there usually on the list? Also, the list can keep changing, right?

It can. Probably only teams that could join are Louisville, Kansas, UNC, and maybe Michigan and Tennessee, but they are probably long shots IMO.

I’ll take “history”.

My sense is there are a lot of good teams this season. However, this year, none will top the short list of REALLY good teams as National Champ.

Updated as of this morning....

Duke

Virginia

North Carolina

Michigan State

Kentucky

Louisville

Maryland & Gonzaga are right on the cusp of joining the list.

Updated as of this morning....

 

Duke

Virginia

North Carolina

Michigan State

Kentucky

Louisville

 

Maryland & Gonzaga are right on the cusp of joining the list.

Louisville will have played everyone on that list. Seven games (at least) to be exact. Tough sledding.

That near-disaster of a game on Saturday pushed Louisville into the top 20 defensively. There's comedy in that, somewhere.

According to last year's thread on this 20 of the last 21 years the national champ has been top 30 in offensive and defensive efficiency (according to Kenpom ratings).

As of today that is a pretty big list unless I'm not reading the rankings right.

Michigan

Virginia

Duke

Kentucky

Michigan St.

UNC

Houston

Gonzaga

Louisville

Maryland

Tennessee

Purdue

Nevada

The only outlier going back all the way to 2002 was the 2014 UConn team. They were #10 defensively, but #39 offensively.

Most of that tournament seemed like an outlier.

What about 2011 UConn?

According to last year's thread on this 20 of the last 21 years the national champ has been top 30 in offensive and defensive efficiency (according to Kenpom ratings).

 

As of today that is a pretty big list unless I'm not reading the rankings right.

Michigan

Virginia

Duke

Kentucky

Michigan St.

UNC

Houston

Gonzaga

Louisville

Maryland

Tennessee

Purdue

Nevada

This article (What does Kenpom tell us about Past Champions? - VU Hoops) suggests it is Top 20.

Most of that tournament seemed like an outlier.

 

What about 2011 UConn?

The article I shared above says 2011 UConn was 19 O and 15 D, so Top 20 in both.

The article I shared above says 2011 UConn was 19 O and 15 D, so Top 20 in both.

Thanks. :thumb: