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Cats vs. Cards Part Deux

polarbear1994

By polarbear1994
in College Football

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Who wins?  

30 members have voted

  1. 1. Who wins?

    • Cincinnati Bearcats
      22
    • Louisville Cardinals
      8

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Cincinnati Run Offense vs Louisville Run Defense

 

After putting up only 82 yards on the ground in Morgantown last week the Cats get a look at the #7 run defense in the country this week. While on the surface it looks like a poor performance all around, Jacob Ramsey had a solid day rushing for 83 yards at a clip of 4.6 yards per carry. While John Goebel didn't have much success on the ground he did make a huge play in the passing game and ended with 3 receptions for 68 yards. It sets up as a game that UC will first need to establish the pass and then go to the ground attack after the defense loosens up a little.

 

As you dig a little deeper in to the number the Cardinal rush defense has been great at times, while others not so much. On the up side they only allowed 8 yards rushing against USF, but followed that by giving up 207 on 5.4 ypc against Syracuse the following week. Against Pitt last week they held LeSean McCoy to a career low 39 yards, so maybe the roller coaster season for Louisville plummets to earth once again. WLB John Dempsey leads the team in tackles, and has combined with DT Earl Heyman and DE Adrian Grady to produce 20.5 tackles for loss on the season. FS Daniel Covington is second to Dempsey in tackles, but isn't much of a force around the line of scrimmage.

 

Edge: Louisville

 

Cincinnati Pass Offense vs Louisville Pass Defense

 

The #1 pass offense in the Big East squaring off against the 2nd to last pass defense in the conference certainly leads you to believe the Bearcats have a decided advantage here. The main problem here for UC is that recently most of that production has come in the 1st half, and then all but disappeared in the 2nd. With Tony Pike getting more experienced by the week he has to start moving the offense after the break, and most importantly convert a much better clip on 3rd down. The team is converting at a disappointing 30% clip on the season (33/111) and had a run of 25 consecutive failed conversions between the Rutgers and UConn games.

 

The main issue for the Cards in defending the pass is the inability to pressure the QB and thus leaving the back seven in coverage for far too long. There is no more telling stat than the fact their two starting CBs have a combined 5 pass breakups on the season. If the UC line can provide time for Pike in the pocket the WRs will be able to gain separation and make plays down the field. CB Woodny Turenne is their best player in coverage and recorded his first career interception a year ago at Nippert.

 

Edge: Cincinnati

 

Louisville Run Offense vs Cincinnati Run Defense

 

UC held the Cards rushing attack under 100 yards a year ago, but Louisville is a much better running team in 08 with the emergence of speedy RS FR Vic Anderson. He's averaging over 100 yards a game, and needs only 49 to eclipse the 1,000 mark on the season. What Anderson lacks in size he make up for with a great burst through the hole as evident by his 6.0 ypc on the season. Brock Bolen and Bilal Powell are more power backs that relieve Anderson and get touches in short yardage situations.

 

The emergence of S Aaron Webster was prominent last week as it seemed he was around the ball on every tackle against WVU. He will have to be much more aware of play action this week, but his physical style of play is something UC was missing in shutting down the run. While Webster got the accolades last week when he was named Big East Defensive player of the week, it was the defensive line that allowed him to fly to the ball and make plays. Terrill Byrd and Adam Hoppel looked like the dominant duo they displayed last season, and they will need that again to disrupt the explosive Anderson at the point of attack.

 

Edge: Even

 

Louisville Pass Offense vs Cincinnati Pass Defense

 

With the graduation of Brian Brohm most believed the Cardinals would remain very solid at QB with his long time backup Hunter Cantwell stepping in, but inconsistency has been a major issue in 08. The strong armed SR has thrown 13 TDs and 11 INTs on the year, and is averaging under 200 yards per game. UL lost its top WR when Scott Long was injured for the season and an inexperienced quarter of pass catchers have yet to fill his shoes. Local product Doug Beaumont leads the way with 42 catches for 508 yards, but has yet to score a TD on the season.

 

The Cats have allowed 221 yards per game through the air on the season, but most of that yardage seems to come between the 20's as they continue to be stifling in the red zone. DeAngelo Smith recorded his 2nd interception in as many weeks, and it looks as if he's back to full speed after spending some time at S early in the season. A big reason the Cats are creating more turnovers is the pressure from the edges by a rapidly improving two deep at DE. Maybe the biggest surprise in the play of Connor Barwin has been his ability to deflect passes at the line. He has 7 on the season and a few have directly resulted in a teammate making the pick.

 

Edge: Cincinnati

 

Cincinnati Special Teams vs Louisville Special Teams

 

The UC ST unit is among the best in the country top to bottom, and it's hard to imagine the team in a position to with the Big East without the play of this unit. Jake Rogers did miss his first FG attempt of the year last week, so it will be important for him to get back out there and put the ball through the uprights this week. More and more teams are starting to kick away from Mardy Gilyard, and it should be more of the same this week after he took the opening kick 100 yards against WVU.

 

For UL their inconsistencies all year carry over here as evidenced by the use of 3 different FG kickers. P Cory Goettsche is averaging 39.2 yards per punt, and has placed 16 of 52 punts inside the opponents 20. The biggest playmaker on the unit is KR Trent Guy who has returned one kickoff for a score and averages 25.2 yards per return.

 

Edge: Cincinnati

 

Cincinnati Will Win If:

 

The Bearcats need to protect the football in potentially wet conditions, and find a way to move the ball after the half. Get Ramsey and Goebel involved early and often, and when the get touches don't commit penalties that negate positive 1st down yardage. On defense show up with the same intensity and fire displayed a week ago, and shut down Vic Anderson before he gets in to space. With the run game limited Cantwell will be forced to carry the load and that should heavily favor the Cats.

 

Louisville Will Win If:

 

From time to time the Cards show the type of potential that got the to the Orange Bowl two seasons ago, and they will need that type of effort here. If they can establish the rushing attack, and open up the play action game it opens up the things Cantwell does efficiently and can keep the UC offense off the field. The DBs have to play well in coverage even when Pike moves the pocket, and if the ball is in the air make a play.

 

X Factor:

 

This is a SR class that will be forever remembered by UC fans, but one of the major things missing from their resume is a victory over Louisville. With the Big East title on the line, it seems secondary, but you just know those guys want to hoist that Keg in victory before they move on. Will they be able to keep focused, and accomplish the task at hand or will they be pressing trying to win the game on every play. I've picked UC to lose the last two weeks, so lets keep the string of being wrong going.

 

Prediction: UL 27 UC 23

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That's why I get paid the big bucks... :lol:

 

I heard you on my boy's show tonight....good job (though I expect nothing less)....

 

U of L does have to get off to a fast start, and I look for them to try and establish the run early, that's the only way to open up passing lanes for Hunter.

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