Severe Weather Alert Day for Sunday 6/25/23

[nWo]

The Storm Prediction Center has raised the threat to a level 3 Enhanced Risk Area for a portion of Kentucky and southern Ohio. Cities included are Cincinnati, Lexington, Louisville, Richmond, Elizabethtown, Somerset, London, Russellville, and Bowling Green. Most of the rest of Kentucky is under a level 2 Slight Risk Area except for extreme eastern Kentucky. 

The main area for possible tornadoes includes the following cities of Louisville, Lexington, Bowling Green, Hopkinsville, Campbellsville, and Elizabethtown. This has a 5% probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.

There are still some differences in the modeling guidance because of possible ongoing showers/thunderstorms expected Sunday morning. With those concerns, conditions could still be favorable for severe storm development. I'm going into Severe Weather Alert Day for Sunday. Mainly because it has been some time since our last severe weather event. 

The hatched area has a 10% or greater probability of two-inch diameter or larger hail within 25 miles of a point.

[sportsfan41]

Flying to Texas tomorrow morning.  What time is this supposed to roll through?

[nWo]

17 minutes ago, sportsfan41 said:

Flying to Texas tomorrow morning.  What time is this supposed to roll through?

You should be ok. The main action won't be until the afternoon.

[nWo]

After the morning showers/storms, it appears there will be a break in the clouds. If this happens conditions will become favorable for the severe storms. The main storm threat looks to be after 4 pm EDT.

 

 

[nWo]

Just received these graphs from the NWS-Louisville office. A conference call is scheduled for 2 pm Sunday afternoon.

 

 

[nWo]

Strong to severe thunderstorms may become numerous late this afternoon into tonight across parts of the lower Ohio Valley and adjacent portions of the Great Lakes. This may include supercells with a risk for tornadoes across parts of central and eastern Indiana into western Ohio and central Kentucky. These areas could also see some significant hail. This includes the Cincinnati/NKY and Louisville areas.

 

 

 

 

[nWo]

Information I just received from the NWS-Louisville office.

Quote

 

The first wave of storms is still expected to push southeast across portions of southern Indiana and central Kentucky this morning. Severe weather is less likely with the morning wave, but stronger storms could produce small hail and gusty winds.

Then, an extended lull is expected with mainly dry and hot conditions this afternoon. Thunderstorms are expected to fire across southern Indiana and western Kentucky early this evening and move southeast across the region. All severe hazards will be possible with this second wave. Damaging winds will be the most widespread threat, but very large hail and tornadoes (possibly significant) will also be possible.

While confidence in the fine details of exactly how storms will initiate this afternoon is still only medium, confidence is medium-high that storms will indeed fire, and if they do form they will quickly become dangerous.

The most likely time frame for severe weather is 5 PM - 1 AM EDT tonight.

 

 

 

[nWo]

Threats for at least a few tornadoes, along with scattered severe gusts and large/damaging hail, will be possible over parts of the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley region.  The hail/gust threat will extend southwestward across the Mid-South region into much of Arkansas.

A tornado and large-hail threat will exist along nearly the entire corridor.  That said, the potential for strong tornado(es) and significant/damaging hail should be relatively maximized across eastern Indiana/western Ohio.

[TheDeuce]

Clouds are starting to break here in the Louisville area. 

[TheDeuce]

 

[TheDeuce]

And now clear blue skies…

[nWo]

Scattered to numerous severe storms are expected through tonight across a broad portion of the Midwest/Ohio Valley into the Mid and Deep South. The greatest threat for tornadoes, at least a couple of which could be strong, appears to be in eastern Indiana, western Ohio, and northern Kentucky vicinity during the late afternoon to early evening.

The potential for more numerous severe events appears to be focused within along/ahead of the front. One area is in the vicinity of the eastern Indiana/western Ohio/northern Kentucky border. Scattered thunderstorms will increase during the next few hours in the Lake Michigan vicinity arcing south across Indiana and then southwest across the Lower Ohio Valley. In the wake of the morning convection in Kentucky,  This setup will likely yield the best conditions near the IN/OH/KY border area where a few intense supercells are expected, capable of producing strong tornadoes and destructive hail/wind.

 

[nWo]

I will be trying a new radar system tonight. So far what I've seen of it it works well. It gives me information about individual storm cells. Directions, strength, and so forth. We'll see how it goes tonight. Going to take a quick nap. Be back around 5 pm.

[Kentucky Windage]

Wind gusts are definitely picking up here in Alexandria. Saw a couple dust devils in the construction site I'm at. 

[TheDeuce]