Hurrican Ian

[nWo]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ian Advisory Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092022
500 AM EDT Mon Sep 26 2022

...IAN BECOMES A HURRICANE AND ADDITIONAL RAPID STRENGTHENING IS
EXPECTED TODAY...
...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT WIND AND STORM SURGE IMPACTS
IN WESTERN CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 82.0W
ABOUT 90 MI...150 KM SW OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM SE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES

At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ian was located
near latitude 18.2 North, longitude 82.0 West.  Ian is moving toward
the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h).  A turn toward the 
north-northwest is expected today followed by a northward
motion on Tuesday with a slightly slower forward speed.  A turn
toward the north-northeast is forecast on Tuesday night or early
Wednesday.  On the forecast track, the center of Ian is expected
to pass near or west of the Cayman Islands today, and near or
over western Cuba tonight and early Tuesday.  Ian will then
emerge over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, and pass
west of the Florida Keys late Tuesday, and approach the west coast
of Florida on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) 
with higher gusts.  Rapid strengthening is expected during the next
day or so, and Ian is forecast to become a major hurricane tonight 
when it is near western Cuba. 

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The latest minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force 
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft data is 983 mb (29.03 inches).

 

 

 

 

 

[nWo]

This satellite image Ian gaining strength overnight.

 

[theguru]

@nWo what kind of "weather" will Kentucky get as what is left of Ian works its way past us?

[nWo]

It really depends on the track Ian takes. As of this morning most of the heavy rain looks to fall east of I-75 and south of I-64. Northern Kentucky could get upwards around an inch. Southeastern and eastern Kentucky could be looking a 1-2 inches of rain from Saturday to Monday. It Ian takes a more westerly track the 1-2 inches of rain will move west of I-75 and north of I-64. It this happens some portions of Kentucky could see 3-4 inches of rain. The track will be the key on who will see the heaviest rain fall.

[theguru]

9 minutes ago, nWo said:

It really depends on the track Ian takes. As of this morning most of the heavy rain looks to fall east of I-75 and south of I-64. Northern Kentucky could get upwards around an inch. Southeastern and eastern Kentucky could be looking a 1-2 inches of rain from Saturday to Monday. It Ian takes a more westerly track the 1-2 inches of rain will move west of I-75 and north of I-64. It this happens some portions of Kentucky could see 3-4 inches of rain. The track will be the key on who will see the heaviest rain fall.

Thanks.  I don't wish a hurricane on anyone but I do love when weather systems push in from the east and give us a nice, steady rain in NKY, it doesn't get much better than that. 

[nkypete]

@swampratWhat "zone" are you for evacuations?  Been watching the Weather Channel and learned how the Tampa area does it.  I just Zone A is mandatory and Zone B is optional.  I'm sure that will change.  Regardless, stay safe!

[nWo]

The 2pm  update has Ian is now rated just below Category 2 status with 85 mph winds.

At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ian was located 
near latitude 19.7 North, longitude 83.0 West. Ian is moving toward 
the north-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the north 
with a slightly slower forward speed is expected on Tuesday. A turn 
toward the north-northeast with a further reduction in forward speed 
is forecast on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Ian 
is expected to move near or over western Cuba tonight and early 
Tuesday. Ian will then emerge over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico 
on Tuesday, pass west of the Florida Keys late Tuesday, and approach 
the west coast of Florida on Wednesday into Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (135 km/h)
with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is expected during the next
day or so, and Ian is forecast to become a major hurricane tonight
or early Tuesday when it is near western Cuba and remain a major
hurricane over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115
miles (185 km).

The minimum central pressure based on Air Force Hurricane Hunter 
aircraft data is 976 mb (28.82 inches).

[nWo]

At the National Hurricane center 5 pm update Ian has stregthen to a catagory 2 hurricane. It is expected to continue to intensify over night. There is still some uncertainty about the exact track. I've seen reports that states the  Ian forecast could be  near a worst case scenario for the Tampa area.

At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ian was located 
near latitude 20.3 North, longitude 83.2 West. Ian is moving toward 
the north-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the north 
with a slightly slower forward speed is expected on Tuesday. A turn 
toward the north-northeast with a further reduction in forward speed 
is forecast on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Ian 
is expected to move near or over western Cuba tonight and early 
Tuesday. Ian will then emerge over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico 
on Tuesday, pass west of the Florida Keys late Tuesday, and approach 
the west coast of Florida on Wednesday into Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (155 km/h) 
with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is expected during the next 
day or so, and Ian is forecast to become a major hurricane tonight 
or early Tuesday when it is near western Cuba and remain a major 
hurricane over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb (28.71 inches).

 

000
WTNT34 KNHC 262100 CCA
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ian Advisory Number  15...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092022
500 PM EDT Mon Sep 26 2022

Corrected header and next advisory time

...IAN CONTINUES TO QUICKLY INTENSIFY...
...CONDITIONS IN WESTERN CUBA TO DETERIORATE THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT WITH SIGNIFICANT WIND AND STORM SURGE IMPACTS EXPECTED...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.3N 83.2W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM SE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES

 

 

 

[nWo]

Can some one correct the spelling in the title of this thread? Thanks

[nWo]

Ian is now a category 3 hurricane

 

At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ian was located
near latitude 22.3 North, longitude 83.7 West. Ian is moving toward
the north near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion is expected to 
continue today.  A turn toward the north-northeast with a reduction 
in forward speed is forecast tonight and Wednesday.  On the 
forecast track, the center of Ian is expected to move over western 
Cuba during the next few hours.  Ian will then emerge over the 
southeastern Gulf of Mexico later this morning, pass west of the 
Florida Keys later today, and approach the west coast of Florida 
within the hurricane warning area on Wednesday and Wednesday night. 

Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Ian is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Little change in strength is expected while 
Ian moves over Cuba.  Strengthening is expected later this 
morning after Ian emerges over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.  
Ian is forecast to approach the west coast of Florida has a major 
hurricane. 

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 952 mb (28.12 inches).

 

 

 

[Bluegrasscard]

Fall break at the Carolina coast not looking good. 

 

 

[nWo]

Torndao Watch issued for south Florida.

   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Tornado Watch Number 544
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   855 AM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Tornado Watch for portions of 
     South Florida
     Coastal Waters

   * Effective this Tuesday morning and afternoon from 855 AM until
     500 PM EDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     A few tornadoes possible

   SUMMARY...Hurricane Ian will continue to move north-northeastward
   and likely further intensify as per the National Hurricane Center. A
   very moist airmass and strengthening low-level shear will support an
   increasing tornado potential from the Florida Keys across the
   southern Peninsula through the afternoon.

   The tornado watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles
   north and south of a line from 70 miles west northwest of Key West
   FL to 20 miles east southeast of Miami FL. For a complete depiction
   of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
   WOU4).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
   tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
   area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
   threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
   and possible warnings.

[Bluegrasscard]

A former co-worker finished building a house in the Tampa area in 2019.  It is a unique build designed to withstand Cat 5.  It captured some news down there and is still featured sometimes. 

From the Home Spotlight section of the following article: 

https://thegabber.com/gulfports-pink-flamingo-home-garden-tour/

"The couple finished building their tri-colored waterfront home in 2019. It’s inspired by the modern work of American Architect Frank Lloyd Wright, says Kichler. 

It’s also built to withstand a Category 5 Hurricane. "

 

This is his personal weather station that he posted on social media yesterday.  So this will provide insight as this comes in. 

 

https://tempestwx.com/station/22195/

 

 

 

[theguru]

7 minutes ago, Bluegrasscard said:

A former co-worker finished building a house in the Tampa area in 2019.  It is a unique build designed to withstand Cat 5.  It captured some news down there and is still featured sometimes. 

From the Home Spotlight section of the following article: 

https://thegabber.com/gulfports-pink-flamingo-home-garden-tour/

"The couple finished building their tri-colored waterfront home in 2019. It’s inspired by the modern work of American Architect Frank Lloyd Wright, says Kichler. 

It’s also built to withstand a Category 5 Hurricane. "

 

This is his personal weather station that he posted on social media yesterday.  So this will provide insight as this comes in. 

 

https://tempestwx.com/station/22195/

 

 

 

Would they have been permitted to build it if it wasn't built to withstand a Cat 5?

[Bluegrasscard]

1 hour ago, theguru said:

Would they have been permitted to build it if it wasn't built to withstand a Cat 5?

Florida codes are far more restrictive than around here but I do not think they have to be hurricane-proof. 

The house in the picture of the article is his.  You can see it is up on concrete stilts. He has said that they expect 2 to 4 feet of water UNDER his house with this.  And said, sadly, that 2 to 4 feet will be IN most his neighbors' houses.