Bowling Green vs. Owensboro Predictions/Updates (5A State Championship)

[Purple88]

Old Foes find a way to meet one more time!!!

Bowling Green and Owensboro have met 81 times.  BG is 40-39 and 2 against the Red Devils.  This game was a staple for the 4th week of the season for many years.  But times change and that dried up in 2018 and the teams have not met the past 2 seasons.  There have been some out-right classics over the years!  2 games of note just to prime the pump:  2014 - BG 42 O 34.  This was the game that Jamale Carothers (a future Mr. Football) as a sophomore broke out with 26 carries for 336 yards and 4 TDs to lead the Purples to victory!  Then in 2018 in the playoffs - the Red Devils would finally get the Purple monkey off their backs and QB Will Warren threw 4 TD passes and 2 to Imonte Owsley to put away an undisciplined Purples squad on that night.  Both of those games at Rash Stadium.

Enough of history:  the 2020 Red Devils are riding high after a THRILLING win 28-27 over a very strong Frederick Douglass squad.  This game saw O open with 21 straight point and could have been 28.  Give the Broncos credit as they did not quit and came all the way back to lead 27-28 in the 4th Quarter.  But JR QB Gavin Wimsatt proved he is worthy of the hype by marching the Red Devils back down the field and earning the final score in amazing fashion.   Owensboro is 12 and 0 in the year of Covid!  A great record.  They have not played a tough schedule, and that is the main reason IMO that MANY around the state either don't know about Owensboro or feel they aren't worthy of being considered as a top team in 5A.  Let this game be an indicator to you that THESE CATS CAN PLAY!  On offense they are LOADED with terrific players all over.  Ethan Avery is their top rusher with now over 600 yards on the season.  But their stable of WRs is stellar with their top wide out Treyvon Tinsley, the best player in the State that you likely have never even heard of.  He has 35 catches for over 525 yards and 9 TDs on the year.

The Owensboro defense is led by SR All-State LB Austin Gough who leads the team with over 100 tackles on the year.  Owensboro has plenty of speed in the secondary and a good line as well.  Lastly, I want to shine on Coach Jay Fallin, who IMO has brought his staff and this program A LONG WAY from their disappointing 4 and 7 season in 2017 with 3 at least 10 win seasons in a row and now playing for the whole ball of wax!!!  Look out for Owensboro!

The 2020 Purples entered the season with seniors all over the place on offense and only a few returning starters on defense.  So when I took my Covid seat at St X for the opening game, I was like many Purples fans in not really knowing what to expect from the Purples defense so early in the season.  BG defensively shut out St X in the first game and has slowly improved every game from there.  In the playoffs, they have been lights out with roughly 18 turnovers in the last 3 playoff games!!!  Amazing!  Yes, the other team turned it over, but IMO this BG defense is "turning the other team over" putting A LOT of pressure on the opposing offense and this is the effect.

Tonight BG traveled back to CovCath for another try against the defending 5A Champions at their very nice facility.  After forcing the Colonels to punt, QB Conner Cooper faked the hand off and raced roughly 75 yards to pay dirt and an early 7-0.  The Purples would tack on one more TD before halftime, but honestly could have had a couple more scores.  BG would end up earning another TD in the game and the defense would not surrender any points.  Excellent effort to finally get a win over a very fine CovCath squad!

Players to know for BG on offense include SR QB Conner Cooper who has really shined of late.  He is making smart decisions and using his arm and legs to cause the opposing defense problems.  SR RB Javy Bunton has had a stellar year with over 900 yards on the ground and nearly 20 TDS.  SR TE Jordan Dingle did not get targeted in this game, but he is a weapon every time he steps on the field.  And I would be remiss not to mention SR FS, WR, RB, P Eli Burwash!  The young man is the glue of this team.  He just does whatever is needed.  Maybe not alot, but when its needed he's there.  And a 60 yard punt downed at the CovCath 1 didn't hurt either.

On defense for the Purples, all 3 levels are peaking right now.  This might be one of the best defensive lines Bowling Green has had with (all JRs) Bridger Knee, Jeremiah Lightfoot, Bradley Gurley and Mario Wilson with Jordan Dingle switching in and out.  WOW!  Rece Jones is a SR LB who has been the anchor of the defense and leads the team in tackles.  The Purples secondary is getting better every game with CB/S Echols (who had several INTs tonight), Rainville, Nyembo, Millet and Kibawa ball hawking for BG!

I am going to wait to give my prediction and keys to the game a bit later, but wanted to get this out there ASAP so we could enjoy it!  Now's the time!  I respect Owensboro immensely and miss playing them in the regular season a lot.  But no time in this rivalry have they played with SO MUCH on the line!  I am predicting a great game!  What about you!!!!

[TheDeuce]

Purples.

[BillNye]

22 minutes ago, TheDeuce said:

Purples.

This about sums it up for me too. 

[R1 sports fan]

I would favor BG. One of the best defensive lines in the state with a great blend of quickness and size. This game should be a good one, as the BG offense isn’t great but is playing it’s best ball in recent weeks.

[Tigerpride94]

Will be interesting matchup with Wimsatt against Bowling Green defense. I’m going to go with BG by 7. I think defense wins championships and BG has championship defense.

[BlueKernels]

Has BG played a really strong passing offense this year? Could be an issue against Wimsatt and O.  CCH QB had plenty of time to throw the ball and had receivers wide open many times tonight, unfortunately QB was either  terribly off target with throws or WR’s dropped  at least 6-7 on target passes. Even tipped 3 passes into the air that fell to BG.
 

BG D line does a great job stopping the run, really tough LB’s too. I like BG to win IF their pass D can hold up as well as their Run D when that is the opponents primary attack. 

[bluecolonels95]

Not so fast. I will take Owensboro because they have a offense unlike CovCath and should put some points on the board. Clearly CCH was not the same team as previous 3 years and I think a lot of people gave them a ton of respect because of what they did the previous 3 years but I knew early on we were not even close the same caliber team on offense so shouldn't be surprised by the shutout victory. But congrats to BG for the win over my Colonels. 

I feel like Owensboro is getting no respect. They just knocked off the other state finalist from a year ago and FD had all that D-1 talent. I think it should be a very exciting game maybe even the best game out of all the 6 state title games. Plus BG has had their fare share of state title. Time for Owensboro to get one.

[Tigerpride94]

 

[Killowatt59]

Thankfully this game isn't at Rash. Always have to score one more than you need to win there.

Owensboro schedule was not real strong so it was tough to get a good read on them. That win last night was impressive. I listened to the fourth quarter on radio and what a game!

BG's defense has to continue what they are doing. Need to get better pass rush than they had last night. Secondary has to be on point and be able to stop the short over the middle passes.

BG's offense has to get better than they were last night. If they can get back to how they played against South Warren and North Bullitt that will give them a great chance.

Glad to see Cooper getting some running chances. He's awesome at it. I would like to see them running it with him to the outside more. He needs to be on point throwing the ball which he has shown he can do. Bunton can't have the drops, needs to catch those short passes.

Playcalling and overall strategy has to be better than it was last night that's for sure.

With Owensboro's weaker schedule and Bowling Green is dang good, proven against top teams and their defense is amazing.

I say Bowling Green wins 27-14. Can't wait till Saturday!

[Volxtile]

I’ll make this short and sweet, if BG can continue to play great defense and move the ball better than last night, they’ll win.  If Owensboro can stop the run and move the ball through the air consistently, they’ll win.

 

There’s a lot more you could talk about, but it’ll be a great game and I’m excited for it!  That being said my prediction is:

Bowling Green 28  Owensboro 14

[DevilMayCare]

I thought Douglass would make a few too many plays for Owensboro to get to Kroger Field. Glad they proved me wrong because, honestly, this is the game I was hoping for. So much history between these two tradition rich programs and with BG holding a razor thin edge in the all-time series, this is sure to be a hotly contested championship game.

A classic matchup of offense (O averages 43 ppg) versus defense (BG allows 9.8). Owensboro can play some D and the Purples have playmakers on offense, but we know where the strengths lie for these two.

[PhenomxX]

I don’t think either team could have wished for a better opponent to play for all of the marbles! There is so much history between the two programs, and in those years has brought us some memorable playoff games (some that come to mind 2008, 2009, and 2018) all of which that have been split in outcomes. I think defense wins this game, and BG has the better big down defense, they can get you behind the chains early and let their secondary eat on passing downs. Offensively, we need to cut out the mental mistakes along with the turnovers. Dingle has been huge when he’s been put down as wing to lead block for Bunton and Cooper. Having a healthy offensive line also helps! And Burwash has been playing inspiring football in this post season, I look for him to have a great game. Owensboro definitely has the dogs to play and win this game, especially with the field general Gavin. Our defensive line is going to the X factor in limiting his balance in the pocket, can’t let him sit back and throw dots over the middle. With that said I’m taking the bowling Green purples 20-6 in a hard fought championship caliber matchup! 

[snakesnot_2000]

I like the Purples in this one.

[CCHFC]

BG is really good. However, after watching the Cov Cath game last night, I don’t think their passing offense is good enough to win this game. I don’t think you can be one dimensional on offense and win a state title in a tough class. 

Of course, I haven’t seen Owensboro play so take this with a grain of salt 😁

[Brown]

A lot of moving parts here.  BG has a great defense - the best in 5A.  Owensboro has 1 of the best offenses, I would say top 2 along with Freddie D in 5A.  Owensboro allowed 27 points to 1 of the best offenses in the state with Neal, Cornett, Burton, Key and Crowdus.  I think that says something about Owensboro’s defense.   Freddie inserted Key and Crowdus in secondary in most if not all of 2nd half.  Burton also joined them on at least the last series.  While BG has a more mobile QB, Freddie has the better offense.  I would think for BG to get 28 as I see in some predictions, it would have to be defense or turnovers deep in O territory.  Owensboro’s offensive line did a great job protecting Wimsatt against FD, and Wimsatt is very agile and mobile.  The offensive line consists of Millay 6-6 275, freshman center at 6-4 310,  Madewell at 6-0 260, Tre Miller (converted from Dline and great athlete) 6-3 about 240 and Humphries at LG.   Wimsatt, like Cooper from BG, can take off at any time.  To me this comes down to ball control and not turning the ball over.  If 1 team loses TO battle by 2 or more and gives up defensive TD’s, that team will lose.  Mistakes are at a premium here.  Wimsatt is the best QB at making all the throws that I’ve seen at the high school level, and is a once in 50 year player (at O a 1 in forever).  Yes he still makes mistakes  but if he can make good decisions I think O prevails in another tight one.  Thanks @Purple88 great write-up.

 

Owensboro 24-21