Bowling Green vs. Owensboro Predictions/Updates (5A State Championship)

[CCHFC]

13 minutes ago, CCHFC said:

BG is really good. However, after watching the Cov Cath game last night, I don’t think their passing offense is good enough to win this game. I don’t think you can be one dimensional on offense and win a state title in a tough class. 

Of course, I haven’t seen Owensboro play so take this with a grain of salt 😁

A couple thoughts on BG after watching them play last night:

1. If I'm Owensboro I'm loading up to stop the run and begging them to throw because I don't think they can do it consistently.

2. The back, Burton, is ok, he's certainly not going to beat you. The best offense they have is the QB run game. He's their best athlete and very fluid with the ball in his hands.

3. The defense is awesome. The front is big and THICK. 37 is a hoss at nose. It allows them to play 2 safeties deep because they can stop the run with 6 or 7 in the box. 

4. Lot of good players in the secondary. I thought 41, 21 and 3 were really good players. They are tough to throw against and made some great plays on the ball and capitalize when they get the chance. 

[Killowatt59]

48 minutes ago, CCHFC said:

A couple thoughts on BG after watching them play last night:

1. If I'm Owensboro I'm loading up to stop the run and begging them to throw because I don't think they can do it consistently.

2. The back, Burton, is ok, he's certainly not going to beat you. The best offense they have is the QB run game. He's their best athlete and very fluid with the ball in his hands.

3. The defense is awesome. The front is big and THICK. 37 is a hoss at nose. It allows them to play 2 safeties deep because they can stop the run with 6 or 7 in the box. 

4. Lot of good players in the secondary. I thought 41, 21 and 3 were really good players. They are tough to throw against and made some great plays on the ball and capitalize when they get the chance. 

Some good points here. Cooper can throw the ball really well and against good defenses. He threw it well in playoff game against South Warren. 

He's just inconsistent is the main problem. One game he'll be on and the offense will really click.

Then he has games like last night when he is off.  He's been that way all season.  Can't really explain it. Our offensive playcalling is the same way.

Owensboro hasn't played anyone as good as BG all season. And they certainly haven't played a defense nearly as good. 

But BG has played at least 5 games against anyone better than on Owensboro schedule and BG won three of those and lost one really close.

Bottom line is if BG plays well they win.  If they don't they will probably lose. The Purples beat Cov. Cath 20-0 on the road and didn't have a good offensive performance. So that says a lot too. 

 

[Brown]

42 minutes ago, Killowatt59 said:

Some good points here. Cooper can throw the ball really well and against good defenses. He threw it well in playoff game against South Warren. 

He's just inconsistent is the main problem. One game he'll be on and the offense will really click.

Then he has games like last night when he is off.  He's been that way all season.  Can't really explain it. Our offensive playcalling is the same way.

Owensboro hasn't played anyone as good as BG all season. And they certainly haven't played a defense nearly as good. 

But BG has played at least 5 games against anyone better than on Owensboro schedule and BG won three of those and lost one really close.

Bottom line is if BG plays well they win.  If they don't they will probably lose. The Purples beat Cov. Cath 20-0 on the road and didn't have a good offensive performance. So that says a lot too. 

 

5 games against anyone better than Owensboro has played...Freddie D just maybe (better than anyone besides Trinity in that list)?  Wouldn’t that be the best team either has beaten?I’m thinking of those teams.  The real question is to me, and I agree that BG will be the best defense they have seen, out of beating St. X, CovCath and splitting with South Warren, are those teams as good as Owensboro?  Offensively I would say no.  Owensboro and BG both have athletes and have always been a great matchup for each other.  As I have said all year, BG great defense, Bunton and Dingle are great.  BG’s most impressive win to me was SW.  Huge.  To do that vs a stout defense moved the needle for me.  SW did have 8 TO’s and I’m sure that’s mostly due to the purple defense.  

[Volxtile]

11 minutes ago, Brown said:

5 games against anyone better than Owensboro has played...Freddie D just maybe (better than anyone besides Trinity in that list)?  Wouldn’t that be the best team either has beaten?I’m thinking of those teams.  The real question is to me, and I agree that BG will be the best defense they have seen, out of beating St. X, CovCath and splitting with South Warren, are those teams as good as Owensboro?  Offensively I would say no.  Owensboro and BG both have athletes and have always been a great matchup for each other.  As I have said all year, BG great defense, Bunton and Dingle are great.  BG’s most impressive win to me was SW.  Huge.  To do that vs a stout defense moved the needle for me.  SW did have 8 TO’s and I’m sure that’s mostly due to the purple defense.  

Talent wise, FD may be better than SW, X, and Cov Cath, but discipline wise, no.  Which is why they lost to Owensboro this year, despite having the most athletes of any team in 5A and debatably the state.  I do think last night proved that Owensboro is legit, and this will be an outstanding game.  
 

As for any of those teams being better than Owensboro, I really don’t know, which is why this game is so interesting to me!

[Killowatt59]

28 minutes ago, Brown said:

5 games against anyone better than Owensboro has played...Freddie D just maybe (better than anyone besides Trinity in that list)?  Wouldn’t that be the best team either has beaten?I’m thinking of those teams.  The real question is to me, and I agree that BG will be the best defense they have seen, out of beating St. X, CovCath and splitting with South Warren, are those teams as good as Owensboro?  Offensively I would say no.  Owensboro and BG both have athletes and have always been a great matchup for each other.  As I have said all year, BG great defense, Bunton and Dingle are great.  BG’s most impressive win to me was SW.  Huge.  To do that vs a stout defense moved the needle for me.  SW did have 8 TO’s and I’m sure that’s mostly due to the purple defense.  

I definitely stand by statement.

[Killowatt59]

14 minutes ago, Volxtile said:

Talent wise, FD may be better than SW, X, and Cov Cath, but discipline wise, no.  Which is why they lost to Owensboro this year, despite having the most athletes of any team in 5A and debatably the state.  I do think last night proved that Owensboro is legit, and this will be an outstanding game.  
 

As for any of those teams being better than Owensboro, I really don’t know, which is why this game is so interesting to me!

Owensboro is definitely legit no doubt. And the last time BG/Owensboro played, The Red Devil's got the win. 

[LongTimeReader]

Has the potential to be a great game. I’m leaning towards the Purples but we’ll see has we get closer to the game. 

[Purplepride]

3 hours ago, CCHFC said:

BG is really good. However, after watching the Cov Cath game last night, I don’t think their passing offense is good enough to win this game. I don’t think you can be one dimensional on offense and win a state title in a tough class. 

Of course, I haven’t seen Owensboro play so take this with a grain of salt 😁

Just curious.. Do you think they are one dimensional because that’s what they relied on to beat CC?? Have you watched them all year?  When you have lots of weapons on the field, you may need to beat a team mainly through the air, solely on the ground, or come at them from both sides. That’s what you do to WIN!  So ONLY a pass heavy team can win a state title in 5A???? 

[BlueKernels]

2 hours ago, Volxtile said:

Talent wise, FD may be better than SW, X, and Cov Cath, but discipline wise, no.  Which is why they lost to Owensboro this year, despite having the most athletes of any team in 5A and debatably the state.  I do think last night proved that Owensboro is legit, and this will be an outstanding game.  
 

As for any of those teams being better than Owensboro, I really don’t know, which is why this game is so interesting to me!

No need for the may better than talent wise regarding FD. They have much more talent than BG, O, CCH, SW, X regarding D1 talent. They are proving though the last couple years that talent alone isn’t enough to go all the way. 
 

I like BG to win next week as long as they can stop the pass.

[Brown]

Side note, Owensboro freshman center Jak Lindsey just offered by UK.  6-4 310.  I guess they liked him taking on Burton and the other nose guard from Freddie D.

 

He will be seeing a lot of Mr. Lightfoot on Saturday, who UK should be all over!

[R1 sports fan]

52 minutes ago, Brown said:

Side note, Owensboro freshman center Jak Lindsey just offered by UK.  6-4 310.  I guess they liked him taking on Burton and the other nose guard from Freddie D.

 

He will be seeing a lot of Mr. Lightfoot on Saturday, who UK should be all over!

Freshman center? That super impressive to be a freshman starting on the offensive line of a state championship caliber team.

[Tigerpride94]

Calpreps projects it BG 35-14.

[Brown]

15 minutes ago, Tigerpride94 said:

Calpreps projects it BG 35-14.

Cal preps had Douglass winning over Owensboro 42-21 before the game.

Cal Preps has LCA beating Owensboro 38-28.

‘Freddie beat them 40-6 I think.  Somehow they are still ranked above Freddie.

[Brown]

1 hour ago, R1 sports fan said:

Freshman center? That super impressive to be a freshman starting on the offensive line of a state championship caliber team.

Well the senior center that started went out injured before the Catholic game out for the season.  All kinds of snap issues at that game.  Switched to another freshman who did really good and the last couple games it’s been this kid.  He’s huge and he held his own with Burton.  

[Tigerpride94]

16 minutes ago, Brown said:

Cal preps had Douglass winning over Owensboro 42-21 before the game.

Cal Preps has LCA beating Owensboro 38-28.

‘Freddie beat them 40-6 I think.  Somehow they are still ranked above Freddie.

They aren’t always right because teams don’t always play true to form. It’s an average over all opponents. I’ve seen several games where they are close. Owensboro can win but BG has a higher probability of winning. They could play hundred times and BG win 55 and Owensboro 45 times as an example showing over 1 game could be a win for either team.