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Hurricane Marco


nWo
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Another system has formed  and is forecast to move in the Gulf of Mexico sometime on Saturday. The projected track has it heading towards the coast of Texas with possible landfall some time Monday evening. 

 

Tropical Depression Fourteen Advisory Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142020
1100 AM EDT Thu Aug 20 2020

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF HONDURAS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.1N 79.7W
ABOUT 235 MI...375 KM E OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES

 

At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Fourteen was located near latitude 15.1 North, longitude 79.7 West.
The depression is moving toward the west near 21 mph (33 km/h), and
a westward motion is expected to continue through this evening.  A 
turn toward the west-northwest and northwest with a decrease in 
forward speed is forecast tonight and Friday, with a general 
northwest motion continuing through at least Sunday.  On the 
forecast track, the center of the system will move near or just 
north of the northeastern coast of Honduras and the Bay Islands on 
Friday and will approach the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of 
Mexico on Saturday.  The center is then expected to cross the 
Yucatan Peninsula Saturday night and move into the south-central 
Gulf of Mexico on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the 
depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today or 
tonight.  The system could be near or at hurricane strength when it 
reaches the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico late Saturday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).

 

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At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fourteen 
was located near latitude 14.3 North, longitude 81.0 West.  The 
depression is moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this 
general motion is expected to continue through tonight.  A turn 
toward the west-northwest and northwest with a decrease in forward 
speed is forecast on Friday, with a general northwest motion 
continuing through at least Sunday.  On the forecast track, the 
center of the system will move near or over extreme northern 
Nicaragua and northeastern Honduras, including the Bay Islands, on 
Friday and approach the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of 
Mexico on Saturday.  The center is then expected to cross the 
Yucatan Peninsula Saturday night and move into the south-central 
Gulf of Mexico on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and
the depression is expected to become a tropical storm tonight.  The 
system could be near or at hurricane strength when it reaches the 
Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico late Saturday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches)

 

14L_tracks_18z.thumb.png.70ab5d67e22ae13819f5235849ac7dbd.png205845_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png.80ed0847530b17baa05f3e3b379387f8.png

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Tropical Depression #1 - The last day of vacation at the beach.
Tropical Depression #2 - When you screw up and accidentally open your work email while you're on vacation at the beach.
Tropical Depression #3 - When you realize you're out of lime for your Corona.
Tropical Depression #4 - When you realize you forgot your sunscreen.
Tropical Depression #5 - Realizing the resort you're staying in has nothing but 24/7 Jimmy Buffett piping in through the audio system at the pool.
Tropical Depression #6 - Blowing out a flip-flop, and stepping on a pop top.
Tropical Depression #7 - Montezuma's revenge.
Tropical Depression #8 - When your daughter won't stop crying about how she needs you to shell out $50 to get those stupid little corn-rows put in her hair while you're on vacation at the beach.
Tropical Depression #9 - Finding out your resort doesn't permit alcohol at the pool.
Tropical Depression #10 - Losing your wallet while you're on your beach vacation.
Tropical Depression #11 - When you check your credit card balance on the last day of your beach vacation.
Tropical Depression #12 - Rain for an entire day when you're on vacation at the beach.
Tropical Depression #13 - Rain for a second straight day when you're on vacation at the beach.
Tropical Depression #14 - That stuff @nWo is talking about in the the first three posts in this thread.

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Friday morning update:

At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fourteen
was located near latitude 15.4 North, longitude 83.1 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 
km/h), and this general motion is forecast to continue this morning.
A turn toward the northwest with a decrease in forward speed is
expected by this afternoon and continuing through at least Sunday.
On the forecast track, the center of the system will move near or
just offshore the coasts of northern Nicaragua and northeastern
Honduras, including the Bay Islands, today and approach the east
coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on Saturday.  The center is
then expected to cross the Yucatan Peninsula Saturday night and move
into the south-central Gulf of Mexico on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the 
depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today.
The system is forecast to be near or at hurricane strength when it
reaches the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico late Saturday.  Some 
weakening is expected as it traverses the Yucatan Peninsula 
Saturday night.  Afterward, restrengthening is forecast on Sunday 
as it moves offshore and enters the southern Gulf of Mexico

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).

 

084628_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png.e87dea539927ac293f880217f8f0abf2.png084628.png.441fe3a4015ebdc1bd23d343c9c9eae4.png

The following are two spaghetti models showing the possible tracks this system could take. Tropical Depression 14 is now forecast to become a hurricane just before landfall.

 

14L_tracks_latest.thumb.png.9ab0cb34ad6aa358ee7acd4809ed57b2.png14L_gefs_latest.png.a29fb14255ea06b754f4ea26b035ed14.png

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At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Marco was
located near latitude 19.6 North, longitude 85.4 West. Marco is
moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A
northwestward motion is expected on Sunday, followed by a turn
toward the northwest and west-northwest early next week. On the 
forecast track, the center of Marco will approach the east coast of 
the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico today.  The center will approach the
northeastern part of the Yucatan Peninsula by early evening and
move over the central Gulf of Mexico toward the northwestern Gulf
on Sunday and Monday followed by a track toward the northwestern 
Gulf coast Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Additional strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days
as the system approaches the Yucatan peninsula and Marco could be
near hurricane strength when it moves over the central Gulf of
Mexico Sunday night and early Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).

 

085240_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png.ec33186dc66577a83557ca0879d7c272.png

 

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Latest on Tropical Storm Marco from the National Hurricane Center:

At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Marco was
located near latitude 21.9 North, longitude 85.7 West.  Marco is
moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h).  Marco is 
expected to continue moving toward the north-northwest across the 
central Gulf of Mexico on Sunday and is forecast to reach the 
northern Gulf coast on Monday.  After moving inland, Marco is 
expected to slow down and turn toward the northwest and 
west-northwest Monday night and Tuesday, moving across southern 
Louisiana into east Texas.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Strengthening is forecast during the next day or two, and 
Marco is expected to become a hurricane tonight or on Sunday.  
Marco is likely to still be at or near hurricane strength when it 
reaches the northern Gulf coast on Monday.   Weakening is forecast 
to occur while the center moves farther inland Monday night and 
Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches)

35574523.thumb.gif.f675c94d5d5a87d02b3a02d4fbb09bee.gif

 

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Sunday morning update on Marco:

At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Marco was
located near latitude 23.7 North, longitude 87.0 West. Marco is
moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). Marco is
forecast to continue moving north-northwestward across the central
Gulf of Mexico today and will approach southeastern Louisiana on
Monday. A gradual turn toward the west with a decrease in forward
speed is expected after Marco moves inland on Monday and on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Some strengthening is anticipated and Marco is forecast to 
become a hurricane today. Marco is expected to be a hurricane when 
it approaches the northern Gulf Coast on Monday. Rapid weakening is 
expected after Marco moves inland.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the Air
Force reconnaissance plane is 994 mb (29.36 inches).

 

035315_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png.1086111af3eaed590a80005460d08dfc.png035315.png.70de5fb3a03440236f51fce7c5b28fdd.png14L_tracks_06z.thumb.png.0bbfb2dbff690ffa4c1a4af87bd14e85.png51282535.thumb.gif.bc8e6e3ef58088bac8acdc26e8c1439f.gif

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Sunday evening update:

 

At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Marco was located
near latitude 25.8 North, longitude 87.8 West.  Marco is moving
toward the north-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), a turn to the 
northwest is expected later tonight followed by a turn to the 
west-northwest by Monday night.  On the forecast track, Marco will 
be near the Louisiana coast Monday afternoon, and move near or 
over the coast through Tuesday. 

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher 
gusts.  Little change is strength is expected over the next 24 h. 
Gradual weakening is expected thereafter, and Marco could become a 
remnant low by Tuesday night. 

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches).

 

153825_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png.9c226e1f42de46ce45c65665aab0a1c0.png153825.png.a67a3b1ae42a2abb9efc7d3e7b2ca9d6.png14L_tracks_18z.thumb.png.a9286fed539d1fc014234901ba296cc4.png56811120.thumb.gif.de243e7ecc3b7bf7a7c60054e936ca00.gif

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Marco has been downgraded to a tropical storm.

 

At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Marco was
located near latitude 28.1 North, longitude 88.4 West. Marco is
moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h).  Marco is
forecast to approach the coast of Louisiana this afternoon, and then
turn westward and move very close to the coast of Louisiana through
Tuesday night.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (80 km/h)
with higher gusts. Further weakening is expected, and Marco is
forecast to become a tropical depression late on Tuesday and
dissipate on Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km),
primarily northeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).

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