What schools will see a change in class in the next realignment?

[gchs_uk9]

Bottom line, using the current numbers and assuming an average of 190 males per year over a four-year period is the cutoff, Beechwood would need a male enrollment under 127 students in the 2017-18 school year to qualify. That just isn't going to happen.

[plantmanky]

Rumor is, Beechwood will be moving to Class 2A and Newport Central Catholic will moving to Class 1A.

 

Best thing for both teams IMO.

[Colonels_Wear_Blue]

Using the numbers for the last three years only, Beechwood is the 39th smallest school. Currently, assuming 32 teams are placed in Class 1A and nobody drops the sport, Fort Knox would be the largest school in 1A. After Fort Knox (average 190), shown with their three-year average:

 

33. Newport Central Catholic - 190.3

34. Betsy Layne - 192

35. Covington Holy Cross - 197

36. Middlesboro - 202.3

37. Owensboro Catholic - 208.7

38. Newport - 209.7

39. Beechwood - 211

 

I can't envision a situation where Beechwood doesn't move up.

 

That will make for Beechwood's first ever year outside of 1A, correct?

[gchs_uk9]

That will make for Beechwood's first ever year outside of 1A, correct?

 

Yes. They were always 1A in the three- and four-class days and have remained as such since the move to six classes.

[Rebel]

It's going to be very close. The key is 4 year average. My guess is yes, but all depends on what the numbers are on this years class. Boyle had a couple of very small back to back boy classes that will be dropping off, that effected the numbers.

 

2016-17 Boys Enrollment: Boyle 465

2015-16 Boys Enrollment: Boyle 410

2014-15 Boys Enrollment: Boyle 400 (425 avg. for past 3 years)

 

Boyle had a Sr. class of 81 boys last year that will drop off that was small. I'm sure that this years incoming freshman class is larger and will raise the overall numbers.

 

Enrollment that moved Boyle down to 3A:

2013-14 Boys Enrollment: Boyle 378

2012-13 Boys Enrollment: Boyle 390

2011-12 Boys Enrollment: Boyle 427

2010-11 Boys Enrollment: Boyle 445 (410 avg. = 3A)

[nees1212]

Thats one rumor I wouldn't bet on .... .... .... .... (As far as Beechwood goes anyway).

 

I know they are anticipating on being in 2A in 2 years.

[PantherPride2020]

I'd be surprised if we don't see John Hardin move to 3A. I don't know their male enrollment but last I heard they were under 800 total students and trending downward.

[MentschTrachtGottLacht]

I'd be surprised if we don't see John Hardin move to 3A. I don't know their male enrollment but last I heard they were under 800 total students and trending downward.

Weren't they 6A at one point in the last 10 years?

[Jo-Jo13]

I heard rumors, I don't know for a fact, but I heard Oldham County may be moving back up to 6A after this coming season.

[Pete W]

Fern Creek may be moving back to 6A as well. They were at the bottom of 6A and moved down when some 5A teams wanted to move up. Now numbers are up quite a bit.

[LoneRanger]

Don’t forget to factor in how KHSAA will handle the addition of the new HS in Scott Co...

6A / 5A borderline could be very interesting group to look at.

[gchs_uk9]

I'd be surprised if we don't see John Hardin move to 3A. I don't know their male enrollment but last I heard they were under 800 total students and trending downward.

 

No chance. Based on numbers from the last three years they are projected as the 11th largest school in 4A.

[gchs_uk9]

It's going to be very close. The key is 4 year average. My guess is yes, but all depends on what the numbers are on this years class. Boyle had a couple of very small back to back boy classes that will be dropping off, that effected the numbers.

 

2016-17 Boys Enrollment: Boyle 465

2015-16 Boys Enrollment: Boyle 410

2014-15 Boys Enrollment: Boyle 400 (425 avg. for past 3 years)

 

Boyle had a Sr. class of 81 boys last year that will drop off that was small. I'm sure that this years incoming freshman class is larger and will raise the overall numbers.

 

Enrollment that moved Boyle down to 3A:

2013-14 Boys Enrollment: Boyle 378

2012-13 Boys Enrollment: Boyle 390

2011-12 Boys Enrollment: Boyle 427

2010-11 Boys Enrollment: Boyle 445 (410 avg. = 3A)

 

Obviously there are a few factors that have to be considered but as of right now Boyle County looks like a 3A school. Now I have heard rumors they might request to play up to 4A...

[gchs_uk9]

I heard rumors, I don't know for a fact, but I heard Oldham County may be moving back up to 6A after this coming season.

 

Almost a guarantee. Their enrollment has really increased and I'm guessing it didn't go down this year. If enough 5A teams (Conner, Boone, Cooper, etc.) request to play up like last time then it might get Oldham a chance to move down but they look too deep in the 6A weeds at this point. Hello Trinity, Ballard, and Eastern!

[gchs_uk9]

Fern Creek may be moving back to 6A as well. They were at the bottom of 6A and moved down when some 5A teams wanted to move up. Now numbers are up quite a bit.

 

They appear almost a lock to go to 6A. Based on the last three years they would have the 18th largest male enrollment in Kentucky. Don't see how they miss out this time.