The Truth About Andy Dalton

[UKMustangFan]

What is funny is that someone who is so big into to sabrometrics of things, decides to completely ignore the one stat that scores QB's on everything they do in game and how they contribute in each game. Which that shows Cutler is and has always been better than Dalton. Cutler has even had some top 10 years.

 

You talk about how Dalton out played those QB's. Yet you fail to mention the defenses each had to go against. The defenses Dalton went against in those games, are not close to the same level that those QB's went against when playing the Bengals defense.

 

Shoot to put things into real perspective you were one of the ones who were completely against Palmer. When in fact Palmer only had one year where his QBR was lower than 15th in the NFL and that was his last year with the Bengals.

 

The fact of the matter is and something you seem to ignore is that the Bengals have surronded Dalton with talent everywhere. On offense, defense and special teams. I truly believe that this team has more talent on offense than we know, but we don't see because of the inconsistent play of our QB. I was defending Dalton for the last 2 years, but it's still the same with him. So yes it is easy to think that another QB could come in and do at least as good if not better. Especially Cutler.

 

You can't compare the impact of statistics in one sport with that of another. Baseball is a game that is heavily dependent on statistics. Football is much less so.

 

Case in point, statistically Brett Favre is the best QB ever. Would you rather have him or Joe Montana?

 

All that matters in football is winning. End of story. If Dalton goes out and puts up 400 yards, completes 80% of his passes, throws for 4 TDs, but they lose, you're really going to be happier than if he throws for 5 yards and completes 5% of his passes but they win?

 

Football, more than any other sport, is driven off W's and L's. Peyton Manning has great statistics. If I had to pick one QB to win one game, he wouldn't be in my Top 5. I may even pick his brother over him.

[75center]

Using that logic, how can you say the Bengals have better WRs? Jones and Sanu are much more unproven than Jeffery. Bennett is definitely on par with Gresham.

 

Depth. I've said from the start I like Cinti's numbers. That's all.

 

I just said I don't consider him a stud yet, not that he isn't good.

 

And if you'll be accurate I've never said Bengals have better receivers, I've said I'm not sure bears have better. Too close for me.

[futurecoach]

You can't compare the impact of statistics in one sport with that of another. Baseball is a game that is heavily dependent on statistics. Football is much less so.

 

Case in point, statistically Brett Favre is the best QB ever. Would you rather have him or Joe Montana?

 

All that matters in football is winning. End of story. If Dalton goes out and puts up 400 yards, completes 80% of his passes, throws for 4 TDs, but they lose, you're really going to be happier than if he throws for 5 yards and completes 5% of his passes but they win?

 

Football, more than any other sport, is driven off W's and L's. Peyton Manning has great statistics. If I had to pick one QB to win one game, he wouldn't be in my Top 5. I may even pick his brother over him.

 

I agree with you actually on this, which is why the stats you posted on Dalton are not that important. However a QBR is not just some stat like how many touchdowns passes in a year, yards thrown in a year. A QBR is very much like your sabrometrics you love in baseball. It takes so many different things into account, and that is how they come up with its score. It takes each play of a game, and how much the QB truly contributed in the win too. It is probably the best stat for baseball, and numbers go beyond what the naked eye can see just like with sabromatrics for football.

 

So the QBR is a great stat to use and a great indicator for a QB. A QBR rating wouldn't rate Favre as the best ever, even though he holds a lot of records. It is a great indicator and is a very reasonable stat and tool to use when evaluating QB's. Its a scale of 1-100 and obviously a score of 50 is average. Andy's career QBR is 49.5 which is obviously average just like his play. So yes this stat is a very important one to use just like the sabromatrics in baseball.

[UKMustangFan]

I agree with you actually on this, which is why the stats you posted on Dalton are not that important. However a QBR is not just some stat like how many touchdowns passes in a year, yards thrown in a year. A QBR is very much like your sabrometrics you love in baseball. It takes so many different things into account, and that is how they come up with its score. It takes each play of a game, and how much the QB truly contributed in the win too. It is probably the best stat for baseball, and numbers go beyond what the naked eye can see just like with sabromatrics for football.

 

So the QBR is a great stat to use and a great indicator for a QB. A QBR rating wouldn't rate Favre as the best ever, even though he holds a lot of records. It is a great indicator and is a very reasonable stat and tool to use when evaluating QB's. Its a scale of 1-100 and obviously a score of 50 is average. Andy's career QBR is 49.5 which is obviously average just like his play. So yes this stat is a very important one to use just like the sabromatrics in baseball.

 

How is the win-loss numbers I posted meaningless? The whole point of football is to win the game.

 

See this is where we completely disagree. Individual statistics are pretty much meaningless, even QBR, in football. The only stat that I really care about is the W-L record. Dalton's is better than most.

[futurecoach]

How is the win-loss numbers I posted meaningless? The whole point of football is to win the game.

 

See this is where we completely disagree. Individual statistics are pretty much meaningless, even QBR, in football. The only stat that I really care about is the W-L record. Dalton's is better than most.

 

A QBR takes that into account too. It's ratings going into how a specific play might help a team win a game. Here is a quick summary of how some of their computations work for it:

 

According to ESPN, QBR was developed to measure the degree to which a quarterback contributed to scoring points for the team, and also to a win by the team. For example, completing a pass to earn a first down at the quarterback's own 20-yard-line with 30 seconds left in the game is unlikely to lead to any points for his team, but if they are already leading it increases the probability of winning, as it usually enables the leading team to run out the clock. This second criterion is quantified using a "win probability" function which ESPN developed by analyzing data for each play of NFL games over the previous decade.

 

The computation requires an examination of each play in which the quarterback was involved. For each play, the change in the expected value of the points scored by the two teams is determined along with the maximum possible change in points for each team. The net points gained by the offense on the play are divided between the players involved in the play based on how much each contributed to the points gained or lost. For example, on a play where the quarterback immediately hands the ball off to a running back after the snap, the quarterback's contribution is negligible. On passing plays the quarterback is likely to have a major contribution, along with the blockers and the receiver. The resulting value is compared to the maximum possible net point gain, and this comparison leads to a "net points percentage" value between 0 and 100 for the quarterback on each play which roughly represents the percentage of the possible point gain that the quarterback produced. This value is transformed so that a value of 50 represents the average net point gain of an NFL quarterback on the play.

 

The win probability function is then used to compute a "clutch index" for each play ranging from 0.3 to 3.0, with higher values corresponding to plays that have a greater influence on winning or losing the game. The QBR is obtained by taking the weighted average of the "points gained percentage" for each play, with each play having a weight equal to its clutch index. Thus the QBR has a range from 0 to 100 with 50 being considered average

 

It takes everything into account and how specific plays a QB makes helps in helping the team win. So yes this stat is not useless, because it calculates everything into how much a QB does in a game helps it's team win. Which Andy Dalton has been every average in his ability to help the Bengals win games. Which is the point everyone is trying to make, and something you already said. You don't believe this team can win it all with him. People play to win the Super Bowl. So if the Bengals are winning this many games and making the playoffs with him being average in helping those wins. Then why not try to have someone who does contribute more. Cutler is not one of the great QB's in the NFL, however he does do a better job at helping his team win. Which his ability to also stretch the field more consistently would give this team an even better shot.

[futurecoach]

All I cared about is wins too. Which is why I backed Dalton the last two years. However now that the Bengals are starting to become a consistent playoff team, I am not going to just be happy to make it. I want them to have a serious chance to win it, and you even stated that probably wont happen with Dalton. Yet all the other pieces are here, and someone like Cutler is better. Put Dalton on many other teams, and he probably doesn't have a winning record and possibly benched by now. Cutler with this defense, special teams, and does have talent on offense too can help this team more than Dalton.

 

With all that said I hope Dalton proves all of us wrong and takes the Bengals on a deep and possibly super bowl run.

[malachicrunch]

Its a lot easier for talent to show, when you have a QB who can get those WR's the ball. If a QB can't get a WR a ball, then you never know how good a WR is. Say Dalton on the 2005 team for example. Put Dalton on that offense, and our WR's all of a sudden don't look like the best duo in the NFL with Dalton at QB. Inconsistent QB play can hide talent.

Yes and great receivers can make average QBs look good. Two way street.

[MentschTrachtGottLacht]

You can't compare the impact of statistics in one sport with that of another. Baseball is a game that is heavily dependent on statistics. Football is much less so.

 

Case in point, statistically Brett Favre is the best QB ever. Would you rather have him or Joe Montana?

 

All that matters in football is winning. End of story. If Dalton goes out and puts up 400 yards, completes 80% of his passes, throws for 4 TDs, but they lose, you're really going to be happier than if he throws for 5 yards and completes 5% of his passes but they win?

 

Football, more than any other sport, is driven off W's and L's. Peyton Manning has great statistics. If I had to pick one QB to win one game, he wouldn't be in my Top 5. I may even pick his brother over him.

One of your best posts UKMF.

[malachicrunch]

You can't compare the impact of statistics in one sport with that of another. Baseball is a game that is heavily dependent on statistics. Football is much less so.

 

Case in point, statistically Brett Favre is the best QB ever. Would you rather have him or Joe Montana?

 

All that matters in football is winning. End of story. If Dalton goes out and puts up 400 yards, completes 80% of his passes, throws for 4 TDs, but they lose, you're really going to be happier than if he throws for 5 yards and completes 5% of his passes but they win?

 

Football, more than any other sport, is driven off W's and L's. Peyton Manning has great statistics. If I had to pick one QB to win one game, he wouldn't be in my Top 5. I may even pick his brother over him.

Good points. It should be about the wins. The Bengals are 8-4 and are in control of the division. Yet most are ready to throw Dalton out with the dishwater. So which is it?

[futurecoach]

You can't compare the impact of statistics in one sport with that of another. Baseball is a game that is heavily dependent on statistics. Football is much less so.

 

Case in point, statistically Brett Favre is the best QB ever. Would you rather have him or Joe Montana?

 

All that matters in football is winning. End of story. If Dalton goes out and puts up 400 yards, completes 80% of his passes, throws for 4 TDs, but they lose, you're really going to be happier than if he throws for 5 yards and completes 5% of his passes but they win?

 

Football, more than any other sport, is driven off W's and L's. Peyton Manning has great statistics. If I had to pick one QB to win one game, he wouldn't be in my Top 5. I may even pick his brother over him.

 

One of your best posts UKMF.

 

Good points. It should be about the wins. The Bengals are 8-4 and are in control of the division. Yet most are ready to throw Dalton out with the dishwater. So which is it?

 

I agree with you all, wins is all that matter. That is why its very convient of you all to completely ignore the QBR stat. QBR takes all these little things into account, like sabrometrics for baseball, and uses all these things to determine the impact a QB truly has on the outcome of a game and to the team winning. Which Dalton has ranked right around 22nd in the NFL for the last 3 years. He is the 22nd best QB in the NFL at helping in games to get a win, 22nd.

 

So if you all truly only do care about winning, then how can you ignore that stat. Which backs up the point we are making. All the pieces are there, and obviously the team is winning more because of overall talent than QB play. So if we can win with inconsistent QB play, where could this team be even with a slighter better QB, such as Cutler. People may not like Cutler, but he and the QBR ratings show it is a better QB and helps a team more.

[malachicrunch]

I agree with you all, wins is all that matter. That is why its very convient of you all to completely ignore the QBR stat. QBR takes all these little things into account, like sabrometrics for baseball, and uses all these things to determine the impact a QB truly has on the outcome of a game and to the team winning. Which Dalton has ranked right around 22nd in the NFL for the last 3 years. He is the 22nd best QB in the NFL at helping in games to get a win, 22nd.

 

So if you all truly only do care about winning, then how can you ignore that stat. Which backs up the point we are making. All the pieces are there, and obviously the team is winning more because of overall talent than QB play. So if we can win with inconsistent QB play, where could this team be even with a slighter better QB, such as Cutler. People may not like Cutler, but he and the QBR ratings show it is a better QB and helps a team more.

 

Why don't we see how this all plays out before we throw Dalton under the bus. The Bengals can leapfrog Indy this weekend, and could Catch NE with some help to attain a bye in round 1. When's the last time we have had that sort of conversation. For someone who is overly positive when it comes to the Bengals, you'd think you'd be talking that up.

[SSC]

This makes me chuckle....

 

Dalton and Peyton Manning are the only 2 QBs in NFL history with 3,000 yards in each of their first three seasons.

 

Dalton, Manning, and some scrub named Dan Marino are the only 3 QBs in history with 20 TD passes in each of their first three seasons.

 

Dalton has outperformed Big Ben, Brady, Rodgers, Rivers, your beloved Cutler, and Stafford just this year in head-to-head battles.

 

He's lead the Bengals to a 14-9 road record in his first three seasons. He's 27-17 overall in the regular season as a starting QB. That's a .614 winning %.

 

He's taken the biggest laughing stock in the league to soon to be 3 straight postseason berths for the first time in franchise history.

 

Not good enough? You wanna try replacing that?

 

:lol2: I'll be here laughing when your "replacement strategy" fails miserably.

 

You are the one that said he wasn't good enough to start this entire thing. I asked if that's not true why not try to find someone that can.

[SSC]

SSC, you've still never answered my question....If/when the Bengals win a playoff game this year, will you finally give your crusade to run Dalton out of town a rest?

 

I have the power to crusade to get Dalton out of town now? Wow.

 

I said earlier in the year he proved to me he could get hot 3 or 4 games and they could win it all if he did, so I wouldn't run him out of town. It loos less likely he can do that now. So I'd take Cutler over him if available and they cost the same per year. I'd take Murray or the kid from LSU if they fall and see if they could be better. SF should have gone to the SB with Smith two years ago and they still looked b/c they didn't think Smith was good enough. I'd do the same if I were the Gals.

[SSC]

All these career stats arguments are dumb too b/c Dalton is playing in the two hand touch league. Newton will join that club being talked about in a couple games. So will a lot of these young guys that start right away if they can stay healthy. Also the Gals stopped being a laughingstock b/c of Palmer and that group not Dalton. Dalton has kept that train going but he certainly hasn't improved it yet. They should win a game this year in the playoffs. They will be home against the 6 seed who will be around 8-8 unless they blow it this week.

[futurecoach]

Why don't we see how this all plays out before we throw Dalton under the bus. The Bengals can leapfrog Indy this weekend, and could Catch NE with some help to attain a bye in round 1. When's the last time we have had that sort of conversation. For someone who is overly positive when it comes to the Bengals, you'd think you'd be talking that up.

 

That's the thing I have been trying to tell you all for the last three years. When you all always said I was just being a homer, drinking the kool age, etc. I told you all then I was just being realistic on my thoughts of the Bengals and not letting the bias of all the bad years and hating Mike Brown cloud my judgment like most. That is why I was able to see how this team would do well the last two years and now this year.

 

I am very excited with this team and said all off season the pieces are there but it will depend on Andy. I have defended Andy saying how can't come to a judgement until after year three. Andy has showed so far that he is the same quarterback as his rookie year basically. So yes right now I will mention how the Bengals possibly should look at someone like Cutler after the season depending how this season turns out. Even if the Bengals do make a run I feel like they should still draft a quarterback in the midd.Rounds.

 

With all this said I will be rooting as hard as I can for Andy to finally show he can be consistent enough to give this team a chance this year.