Zogby poll for tomorrow: McCain takes a 1% lead

[ladiesbballcoach]

The IBD poll has been most favorable to Republicans. Zogby has been all over the place this year. Gallup and Rasmussen, the two most credible pollsters in my opinion, show steady, although narrowing, leads for Obama. Then again, Drudge has linked Nickelodeon polls when they've shown a tight race.

 

And for all of those calling for more "hardball" from McCain, I hate to be the one who breaks it to you, but it's the reason he's going to lose this race. It's not what he does well, it's insubstantial, and it isn’t what people are looking to hear with the current state of affairs. So, congratulations, you’ve lost what should have been a win. Such is the state of the Republican party.

 

Rove, who whether you like him or not you have to admit he was the mastermind behind 2000 and 2004, said that the IBD was the most accurate in 2004. .4% off the actual final tallies.

[NobizLikeShowbiz]

As close as we are to the election I have given up on the polls. It is only two days away until the "real" polls come out. I have spent way too much time watching Fox or CNN trying to determine which polls I believe and dont believe. In 2004, even the exist polls were saying that Kerry had defeated Bush. I just can't make myself hold much stock in any poll. To me, there are just too many variables that could make these polls be dead wrong.

[Habib]

Rove, who whether you like him or not you have to admit he was the mastermind behind 2000 and 2004, said that the IBD was the most accurate in 2004. .4% off the actual final tallies.

 

And he's the de facto mastermind of the brilliant campaign McCain is mired in now.

[ladiesbballcoach]

And he's the de facto mastermind of the brilliant campaign McCain is mired in now.

 

How do you come to that conclusion?

[75center]

How do you come to that conclusion?

 

Wondering that myself.

[Pancake]

How can you say that?

The odds are stacked against him and he has had to run a good campaign just to stay competitive.

 

• Unpopular President from his party.
  
• Horrible economy that is blamed on his party.
  
• A media that is so tilted and bias towards his opponent it is shockingly sad.
  
• Facing a candidate that reneged on a pledge to take public financing (which will change Presidential races forever as the Republican candidate in 2012 won't take public money then) and has about 6 times the money he does.
  
• A candidate that is very well liked and seen as a historical choice of messianic portion.
  

 

And he still has a chance to win.

 

I think Palin has been a drag on his campaign, as for getting the undecided and Dem's willing to jump ship. I think he could have picked a VP with better economy background. Palin has excited the far right group...

[UKPat02]

Zogby's poll still has Obama with a 5 point lead today.

[mcpapa]

^ So did Obama gain 6 points in one day?

[rockmom]

Maybe the confusion came here:

 

 

UTICA, New York -- Republican John McCain made a small gain against Democrat Barack Obama and has pulled back within the margin of error, now trailing Obama by five points, 49.1% to 44.1%, the latest Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby daily tracking telephone poll shows.

Almost two days worth of the polling -- or about half of the current sample in the three-day rolling poll of likely voters nationwide, was conducted after Obama's 30-minute commercial aired Wednesday evening. There is no evidence it helped him, as he has dropped 1.1 points in the last two days, while McCain has gained 0.8 points during the same period.

Pollster John Zogby: "Is McCain making a move? The three-day average holds steady, but McCain outpolled Obama today, 48% to 47%. He is beginning to cut into Obama's lead among independents, is now leading among blue collar voters, has strengthened his lead among investors and among men, and is walloping Obama among NASCAR voters. Joe the Plumber may get his license after all. "Obama's lead among women declined, and it looks like it is occurring because McCain is solidifying the support of conservative women, which is something we saw last time McCain picked up in the polls. If McCain has a good day tomorrow, we will eliminate Obama's good day three days ago, and we could really see some tightening in this rolling average. But for now, hold on."

 

Interesting to note, I am not blue collar, an investor, a man or a NASCAR voter. I am a redneck, leach, woman, football fan.

[UKPat02]

I'm no statistician, but isn't 5% a pretty big margin of error?

[mcpapa]

I'm no statistician, but isn't 5% a pretty big margin of error?

 

I'm guessing that with the sample sizes typically used in these polls, there is something like a 2 to 3 percent margin of error either way.

[Hoot Gibson]

I do not believe that the margin of errors cited in public polls are accurate at all. If they were, then the results between the various polls would almost always fall within each others' respective margins of error and that is not the case.

 

Some voter types are less willing to participate in polling than others and even more importantly, the pollsters make some potentially erroneous assumptions regarding turnout of various groups. So far many more early voters have turned out in most states than pollsters had expected. If the ratio of Republican to Democratic voters is substantially different than pollsters' assumptions, then Obama could be in store for a nasty surprise on Tuesday.

 

McCain would have had no chance of winning this election had he named a typical moderate white man to his ticket. Sarah Palin has energized the conservative base and I expect conservatives to turn out in large and possibly record numbers to vote for her on Tuesday. The enthusiasm for Obama among young voters has reportedly been declining since he made his spreading the wealth comments to Joe the Plumber. It turns out that many young people are not anxious to give up on the American dream so early in life. The ACORN shenanigans and voter fraud reports by Obama's own campaign workers are also dampening enthusiasm among young idealists.

[UKPat02]

 

McCain would have had no chance of winning this election had he named a typical moderate white man to his ticket. Sarah Palin has energized the conservative base and I expect conservatives to turn out in large and possibly record numbers to vote for her on Tuesday. The enthusiasm for Obama among young voters has reportedly been declining since he made his spreading the wealth comments to Joe the Plumber. It turns out that many young people are not anxious to give up on the American dream so early in life. The ACORN shenanigans and voter fraud reports by Obama's own campaign workers are also dampening enthusiasm among young idealists.

 

Thank you, Hoot. You're a daily source of laughter. :lol:

[Hoot Gibson]

I'm no statistician, but isn't 5% a pretty big margin of error?

Not if the number was accurate. Depending on the confidence interval, 5% can be a pretty small margin of error. If 95 percent of the time, results are expected to fall within the margin of error, then odds are pretty good that there will be no surprises. When multiple polls taken from independent samples have results with margins of error of 5 percent or less and the results are consistent, then averages of those results such as those reported by Real Clear Politics should be extremely reliable.

 

In the real world, there are many more sources of error in polling than there is for other types of sampling. Question phrasing can skew results and members of the sample may refuse to be sampled. If the people refusing to be sampled represent a different population than those who cooperate with pollsters, then the polling results are further skewed.

 

Another factor that may come into play in political polling is the tendency of pollsters to want to run with the herd. For example, if the results of one poll show that Obama is 10 points ahead of McCain while other major polls show him to be only 5 points ahead, then pressure may drive the pollster to adjust the model to bring it more in line with the national consensus. Polling is a business and if everybody is wrong and you are part of that group, then business will not suffer but if your results are an out lier in the wrong direction, then your business will suffer. (The Investor's Business Daily results in 2004 were on the money but that is really no indication that its polling methods were any better than its competitors' methods were. It could have just been dumb luck but everybody is taking IBD's numbers more seriously this year because of its 2004 track record.)

[Hoot Gibson]

Thank you, Hoot. You're a daily source of laughter. :lol:

Just returning the favor.