Michigan Primary Prediction thread

[ladiesbballcoach]

1/19 is the Michigan Primary which is the next primary for both parties.

 

Except, the DNC is peeved at Michigan for scheduling their primary at this time. So, they have been sanctioned and the Dems are not campaigning there.

 

So real interesting on who to pick in a major state that the Dems are not campaigning in.

 

The Republicans will be there. I think McCain won it in 2000. Romney's dad was a popular governor there and Mitt grew up there. Huckabee according to the pundits has a lot of evangelical support in Michigan, South Carolina and Florida.

 

These 3 states on the Rep side could hold major pull on who gets the nomination for the Republicans. One candidate sweeps or goes 1st, 2nd, 1st and that is major mo going into super duper Tuesday.

 

What says BGP? Predictions about Michigan on 1/15?

[The Professor]

CNN reported that Hillery is pretty much a lock to win in Michigan because of the way they do the democratic primary there. They said many people were upset over this. Does anyone have an explanation of what they are talking about?

[ladiesbballcoach]

CNN reported that Hillery is pretty much a lock to win in Michigan because of the way they do the democratic primary there. They said many people were upset over this. Does anyone have an explanation of what they are talking about?

 

I found this.

http://www.michiganliberal.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=10341

 

You’ve all probably heard by now that Obama, Edwards, Richardson, Biden, and Kucinich are withdrawing form the Michigan Democratic Party primary.

 

Since their candidate has yet to pull out of Michigan’s primary, about the only Democrats happy with this development are those who have already bought their tickets to the Clinton Coronation Ceremony.Our legislature and governor wanted to make Michigan’s part in the presidential primary process more relevant. So they changed it from a caucus to a primary, then moved up the date to January 15, which apparently violated the rules set forth by the DNC and RNC.

 

The DNC, chaired by grassroots/netroots guru Howard Dean, said Florida and Michigan would have to forfeit their delegates at the convention for moving their nominating primaries to before February 5. The Democratic candidates responded by vowing not to campaign in Michigan and Florida. Dean’s 50-state strategy is fast becoming a 48-state strategy.

 

It seems the others have removed their name from the ballot leaving only Hillary on the ballot.

[HHSDad]

Hillary's up +20 points. She'd have to really screw up to lose.

 

McCain has really shot up in recent weeks, but I think he has peaked. Romney had a sizeable lead, but has seen it slip away in the past month. Huckabee is picking up steam, but he'll have to more than double the polling data to have a shot. He's currently 16 points out of 2nd place. Thompson's done. Guliani is a non-factor. This primary is between Romney and McCain and will go to the person who gives up the fewest votes to Huckabee and Ru Paul.

 

Speaking of Ru Paul, he has been doing amazingly well as of late.

[bugatti]

Hillary's up +20 points. She'd have to really screw up to lose.

 

McCain has really shot up in recent weeks, but I think he has peaked. Romney had a sizeable lead, but has seen it slip away in the past month. Huckabee is picking up steam, but he'll have to more than double the polling data to have a shot. He's currently 16 points out of 2nd place. Thompson's done. Guliani is a non-factor. This primary is between Romney and McCain and will go to the person who gives up the fewest votes to Huckabee and Ru Paul.

 

Speaking of Ru Paul, he has been doing amazingly well as of late.

 

I see more Ron Paul signs around random parts of town and along side the interstate than any other candidate.

[16th62nd]

I think McCain might win Michigan. He may be the most electable on the republican side.

[ladiesbballcoach]

I think McCain might win Michigan. He may be the most electable on the republican side.

 

Funny, I think he might be the most unelectable on the Republican side. As they was pointed out yesterday, it is so much about personality.

 

With NH having 45% of their voters being independent, they could choose either party. Many were torn between McCain or Obama. If you are an issues voter, you are NOT TORN between McCain or Obama.

 

And when it comes to personality and likability, I am not sure that McCain is going to win that race against many over the long haul.

[AcesFull]

I think Michigan is a must win for Romney. If he can't win in the state where he was born and where his father was governor, it is going to be very tough winning anywhere else.

 

I wish that one of the Republican candidates would beginning hitting McCain in the areas that he would be most vulnerable in the general campaign, but none of them seem anxious to make his record an issue.

 

I am going to predict a narrow win for Romney over McCain.

[AcesFull]

Funny, I think he might be the most unelectable on the Republican side. As they was pointed out yesterday, it is so much about personality.

 

With NH having 45% of their voters being independent, they could choose either party. Many were torn between McCain or Obama. If you are an issues voter, you are NOT TORN between McCain or Obama.

 

And when it comes to personality and likability, I am not sure that McCain is going to win that race against many over the long haul.

I agree 100%. IMO, McCain would get hammered by Obama and probably by Hillary as well. He has plenty of skeletons in his closet and many conservatives cringe when he is described as "one of them."

[ladiesbballcoach]

Tried to find a recent poll for Michigan but couldn't. All were from November.

 

Did find this.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/latestpolls/index.html

 

SC has Huckabee at 33, McCain at 21 and Romney at 14.

Obama at 40 and Clinton at 33. Edwards in his home state 15.

 

Florida has Rudy G 24, Huckster and McCain at 19, Romney at 13.

Clinton 41, Obama 32

[MoreheadEagle]

I think McCain might win Michigan. He may be the most electable on the republican side.

 

McCain was the reason I registered Republican when I first registered to vote. I promptly switched when I saw that W was the nominee in 2000. I like him and respect him but can't vote for him b/c he has allied himself with Bush on the war. The War is my main issue so no Republican gets my vote.

[16th62nd]

Funny, I think he might be the most unelectable on the Republican side. As they was pointed out yesterday, it is so much about personality.

 

With NH having 45% of their voters being independent, they could choose either party. Many were torn between McCain or Obama. If you are an issues voter, you are NOT TORN between McCain or Obama.

 

And when it comes to personality and likability, I am not sure that McCain is going to win that race against many over the long haul.

 

It is true that the conservative republican base doesn't want McCain, they also don't want to be aligned with Huckabee. Everyone mentions that McCain would be crushed by the democratic nominee, I think that is true of most all the republican candidates. I believe the last 8 years has changed the political landscape a bit, just as the previous 8 years before that did. People seem to want something different than what they have. That is why I think it will be difficult for either party to hold the White House longer than 8 years in the future.

[Sting]

I think Romney will get a big win in Michigan with McCain not far back...

[SportsGuy41017]

On the republican side, the national party is penalizing the state, they will only have 1/2 the number of delegates.

[HHSDad]

Latest numbers from Michigan polls show a tight race between Romney, McCain and Huckabee. The problem I have with the GOP taking delegates away is they're not penalizing the state as much as they are penalizing the winning candidate.