On 10/22/2025 at 9:25 AM, ATLCat said:

Plus it is worth noting that as long as they stay in this 6 team District it is highly likely they get 3 wins each year minimum and 4 wins being likely. Walton-Verona is nowhere near the same level as a program as they were under Coach Barth 5-6 years ago. St. Henry has a chance to make headway in the future but it will probably take some time. Owen and Gallatin will be vulnerable every year.

As long as Bracken continues to schedule the way they have trended toward scheduling I would think 5-6 wins is pretty likely even in a bridge year.

Agreed. Walton-Verona definitely has work to do, to get back to where they were. Specifically 2018, when they won their one regional championship. To go along with some other really good years, as they had a lot of success under Coach Barth who did a great job building the program. Which Coach Pence, has his work cut out to get Walton-Verona back to the level coach Barth had them especially before covid. 

I would say the biggest change for Walton-Verona obviously has been the district changing. As before the district change even in some years if Walton may not have had as much talent, they still were able to win the district and have a good year with the district they were in. As Walton-Verona absolutely dominated the old district they were in for years with them, Owen County, Gallatin County, Carroll County, Trimble County, and Shawnee who was in it too for a few years. Walton-Verona routinely every year went undefeated in that district, getting the one seed for the playoffs every year with it. Which a few of those years playoffs were inter-district, where they played those same district teams again for the first two rounds. Walton-Verona is still beating those exact same teams, and would have even been district champs last year, and probably this year too if it was still in that same old district. However, things definitely changed once Beechwood, and Bracken joined the district.

Walton-Verona started in this new district in coach Barth's last year as coach, and immediately lost their first few district games in the new district after not losing a district game for years, and then missed the playoffs too. So the new district had an immediate impact on Walton-Verona and its success. Walton did improve record wise last year, and got back to the playoffs as a 3 seed. This year though was a disappointing start to the season, as even with the key injuries they had, they still lost a couple games they shouldn't have.  We will see how they finish up though, now that a few key guys are back. 

Walton-Verona needs to build it back up, to where they hopefully can eventually try to compete in the district with Beechwood one day. Which Walton has taken steps the last year and a half to try to do that starting from the bottom up. Their youth team moved up from the smallest division to the medium division in the NKYFL to try to play better competition. Their middle school team moved out of the NCKC middle school league, and joined the NKY medium division middle school league for better competition. So it is going to take some time, but I believe they are taking some steps to try to build it back to one day at least try make things more competitive for Beechwood. 

I do think Bracken takes a step back from where they have been these last 3 years. However, doesn't mean they are going to be bad either. Then St. Henry is building it the right way, and is going to be a very solid program very soon. I believe Gallatin County has a good coach too now and will slowly improve. So I believe the district as a whole we will see improvement and we will see some very competitive games moving forward for the 2,3, and 4 seeds. It just still may take some time unfortunately for Beechwood, before anyone in the district really competes with them. 

On 10/20/2025 at 8:19 AM, ATLCat said:

So how about this coming week:

- It is Belfry's time to take center stage in the moving day sweepstakes. Though Belfry has another subpar RPI game against Shelby Valley in direct head to head, this is kind of Belfry's make or break week for contending for the 2 or 3 seed and helping their ability to avoid a long road trip. East Carter, Johnson Central, and Pikeville all have games that Belfry needs a win in.

Johnson Central and Pikeville will be favorites in both of their games, but are both playing teams capable of winning (Ashland and Hazard respectively). East Carter vs. Russell is a huge one. Basically, Belfry's margin of error to get a 2 or 3 seed requires all three of these teams to win out and East Carter is the least likely to do so (but they do have more than a fair chance as well). If all three teams win I expect Belfry to jump Danville and be neck and neck with Mayfield coming out of this week.. 

- Mayfield really doesn't have a lot of opportunities for BIG moves left, but the Cardinals are in the position of having a lower ceiling but a higher floor for how their RPI shakes out. The good news for Mayfield is they have some 5A and 6A wins that are starting to rack up wins and boosting Mayfield in the process with bonus points each time. This is a lowkey important week for Mayfield as they might not se a sweeping move up the standings, but this is the week they could either solidify their positioning or slip up and see others pass. In other words, 6.5 hours separate Belfry and Mayfield. These two teams may not have to experience that drive, but if they do there is a chance this week could play a big hand in who ends up having to make that trip and who doesn't if it occurred. 

Key Games This Week:

1.  East Carter at Russell- As previously mentioned this is the big one in terms of impact this week. East Carter stands as Belfry's best win as a 3A bump who keeps winning. The Raiders get their stiffest test since the Belfry game travelling to Russell for the District Title. These two have been pretty tightly contested in the recent past. A win further strengthens Belfry's best victory and makes Beechwood's margin of error zero in terms of getting wins from their help.

2. Ashland at Johnson Central- One of the things keeping Belfry in the race is their best loss is to one of the top teams in 4A in RPI.  Johnson Central enters as a favorite but this rivalry has been very unpredictable. This game has a two-part tie-in as well. Belfry and LCA are linked by Ashland in OOWP. Ashland ends their year playing Lexington Catholic, arguably LCA's best win. If Belfry has any hopes of passing LCA they really need an Ashland loss against JC and an Ashland win against LexCath as their best path to make up some ground directly.

3. Prestonsburg at Martin County- This one will decide District 7. Pburg is probably a noted favorite in this one, but Martin County has the chance to play spoiler and ruin the Blackcats' undefeated season. The Cardinals have not lost since their season opener and have two of the most underrated players in Class 2A in QB Devan Maynard and RB/LB Crayson Lafferty. Maynard will probably hit the 1000 yard passing and 1000 yard rushing mark this week.

4. McCracken County at Henderson County- Mayfield has a must win situation in a game that should be competitive that could have a big bearing on their RPI fortunes. McCracken has turned into Mayfield's best win and Mayfield's best path to all things homefield hinges on the Mustangs closing out the season with two wins. The final showdown against Graves County is a winner either way for Mayfield, but anytime you have two teams playing you want the higher class to win. This one is big for Mayfield, they need McCracken to hold off Henderson for a big 6A vs. 6A score.

5. Pikeville at Hazard- Don't look now but Belfry's win over Pikevile has turned into a very good RPI score for the Pirates. Pikeville has went from a team in the teens of the initial 1A RPI to a team with a very likely path to finish 3rd and maybe even 2nd depending on a couple pivotal final week games. Hazard is a tough team and capable of shocking the Panthers and really hurting Belfry. It's also worth noting that for teams like Breathitt and Pburg who are still in contention in the East, or even Somerset who has some upsets on their mind to the Semi-Finals, a Hazard win and a worst case scenario finish for Belfry is their easiest chance to make up ground or even hosting Belfry at some point. Simply put, a Belfry loss to Letcher Central (who Breathitt beat) couple with a Hazard win over Pikeville (PBurg beat Hazard) firmly puts both of those teams in the race for hosting a 3rd Round game and sending Belfry on the road.

 

Other Games of Major Note:

Great Crossing at Campbell County- Beechwood's hopes and dreams stay alive but they are all tied to their playing up bonus wins over Simon Kenton and Dixie Heights and their pending game against 6A Campbell County that everyone expects the Tigers to win. Great Crossing is a low hanging fruit that has to be picked off to strengthen these wins. Campbell County has that opportunity and Beechwood really needs it.

Owensboro at Madisonville- One of the most critical games in the entire state tactfully speaking but this one also has a 2A RPI component. Owensboro Catholic is sitting in the catbird seat already but they can all but shut down the competition if Owensboro wins this game and cements the Aces' lone loss as an elite loss. Remember the story in 2A is four of the top five teams will all share one loss and then LCA has multiple very good losses. LCA may be the only team with even a glimmer of hope to catch OCath but a massive OWP win here shuts that door.

Manual at North Hardin- I think most would be very surprised if North Hardin wins, but they do have a chance. OCath is going to be very had to catch at #1 especially after Apollo got a surprise win. LCA needs a lot of help and the first pace to find that help would be a surprise upset from their 6A win against the Trojans.

Hopkinsville at Christian County- It's the end of a rivalry that has at times been very significant in the Kentucky landscape. Neither team is exactly a powerhouse this year, but this does have an impact on Mayfield. The Cardinals could really benefit from a Christian County upset. Is it likely? Doubtful.. but what better way to end this series then digging deep and shocking everyone?

Muhlenberg County at Graves County- We mentioned Mayfield needed Graves to get a win against Marshall and now Muhlenberg. The Eagles should oblige them and this will give Mayfield a boost.  

 

 

How I think it stands after this week (excluding Danville):

1. OCath- Almost untouchable.

2. LCA- Firm grasp with a 6A game left.

3. Mayfield- By a hair.

4. Belfry- In position to overtake Mayfield.

5. Beechwood- Biding their time and hanging back but waiting for a 6A score to end the year.

6. Prestonsburg- Chasing the pack but generally happy where they are with an undefeated mark and adding distance on Breathitt.

7. Breathitt County- Narrowly ahead.

8. Somerset- Wishing they beat South Laurel so bad and wondering how Southwestern can't win anymore.

How much help did the Campbell County win strengthen Beechwood to move past Belfry?

 

2A RPI - Sat Oct 25

Compiled on October 25, '25 8:02 AM

 

 

Edited October 25, 2025Oct 25 by Watusi

1	Owensboro Catholic	2A	2	8	-	1			9	1.18767	.57482	.58701	.79297
2	Lexington Christian	2A	4	6	-	3			9	.76653	.84345	.52467	.72089
3	Mayfield	2A	1	8	-	1			9	1.11316	.47751	.53228	.71642
4	Belfry	2A	8	8	-	1			9	.98006	.53066	.57423	.70102
5	Danville	2A	4	7	-	2			9	.97670	.52724	.57040	.69750
6	Beechwood	2A	5	8	-	1			9	1.02995	.51718	.49020	.68856
7	Prestonsburg	2A	7	9	-	0			9	1.00000	.45949	.53746	.67206
8	Somerset	2A	3	8	-	1			9	.96340	.46061	.55088	.66367
9	Breathitt County	2A	6	7	-	2			9	.88560	.52500	.50807	.64613
10	Monroe County	2A	3	6	-	3			9	.81818	.55206	.51109	.63291
11	Martin County	2A	7	7	-	2			9	.79443	.52210	.52549	.61843
12	Hancock County	2A	2	6	-	3			9	.73826	.55628	.51951	.60894
13	Bracken County	2A	5	6	-	3			9	.70246	.55885	.47376	.58359
14	Green County	2A	3	6	-	3			9	.75491	.48162	.49482	.58124
15	Washington County	2A	4	5	-	4			9	.64921	.52075	.55595	.57627
16	Knott County Central	2A	7	7	-	2			9	.75068	.45757	.49293	.57077
17	Caldwell County	2A	1	6	-	3			9	.75783	.40338	.50787	.55879
18	WEB DuBois	2A	4	4	-	5			9	.49690	.58133	.56858	.54795
19	Crittenden County	2A	1	6	-	3			9	.68332	.44451	.50626	.54662
20	Shelby Valley	2A	8	4	-	5			9	.44444	.53936	.51128	.49772
21	McLean County	2A	2	4	-	5			9	.51896	.48297	.46012	.48871
22	Fort Knox	2A	2	3	-	6			9	.42699	.51715	.47595	.47323
23	Metcalfe County	2A	3	2	-	7			9	.23888	.65067	.49142	.45877
24	Shawnee	2A	4	3	-	6			9	.40785	.43546	.53983	.45710
25	Betsy Layne	2A	8	3	-	6			9	.33333	.53298	.50415	.45445
26	Fort Campbell	2A	1	3	-	6			9	.34999	.53957	.47506	.45386
27	Leslie County	2A	7	2	-	7			9	.22222	.59414	.51349	.43977
28	Walton-Verona	2A	5	4	-	5			9	.44444	.38256	.48628	.43533
29	West Carter	2A	6	3	-	6			9	.34999	.48366	.43868	.42338
30	East Ridge	2A	8	2	-	7			9	.22222	.54705	.47910	.41297
31	Trigg County	2A	1	2	-	6			8	.25000	.53347	.44918	.40897
32	Morgan County	2A	6	4	-	5			9	.46110	.27867	.49580	.40766
33	St. Henry	2A	5	2	-	7			9	.22222	.53003	.43907	.39501
34	Pike County Central	2A	8	2	-	7			9	.22222	.46381	.50702	.39222
35	Clinton County	2A	3	1	-	8			9	.12777	.45338	.51174	.35692
36	Gallatin County	2A	5	2	-	7			9	.22222	.39461	.45945	.35373
37	Floyd Central	2A	7	1	-	8			9	.12777	.46424	.48413	.35244
38	Owen County	2A	5	2	-	7			9	.23888	.36007	.45967	.34753
39	Todd County Central	2A	1	1	-	8			9	.11111	.41719	.45920	.32267
40	Jackson County	2A	6	1	-	8			9	.09665	.39043	.42539	.29810

Bracket: https://khsaa.org/2025-football-bracket-builder/

There is still room for changes for the teams below #1. Owensboro Catholic has the #1 seed locked up.

37 minutes ago, Voice of Reason said:

There is still room for changes for the teams below #1. Owensboro Catholic has the #1 seed locked up.

Can Mayfield get to #2 ?

BW traveling to Belfry?

24 minutes ago, snakesnot_2000 said:

Can Mayfield get to #2 ?

Very thin chance but better chance than Belfry and Beechwood.

LCA ends with a 6A winnable game. Mayfield will need some results from LCA’s opponents no one is expecting.

8 minutes ago, Oldercoach said:

BW traveling to Belfry?

Not likely.

They should avoid each other Round 3.

in the Semi Finals it’s possible but not likely. I would say Beechwood and Belfry playing any time besides the Finals is one of the least likely scenarios. 

9 minutes ago, Oldercoach said:

BW traveling to Belfry?

Zero chance that can happen. Beechwood and Belfry could only meet in the title game.

Danville-Somerset in round 2 would be interesting.

11 minutes ago, Voice of Reason said:

Zero chance that can happen. Beechwood and Belfry could only meet in the title game.

Can you break that down for me.  Confusing for old man. Guessing BW isn’t moving up in RPI much and Belfry the same so OC, Mayfield, and LCA will be 1,2, and 3.

What determines home field in 3rd round if two #1s meet? RPI?

8 hours ago, Watusi said:

 

2A RPI - Sat Oct 25

Compiled on October 25, '25 8:02 AM

 

 

What is the OOWP?  Opponents overall winning percentage?