27 minutes ago, DanvilleFan said:

Danville-Somerset in round 2 would be interesting.

It would keep the string of playing each other intact, going back to what, 2009?  

48 minutes ago, Oldercoach said:

What determines home field in 3rd round if two #1s meet? RPI?

In round 3, the 4 teams left on each side of the state are seeded by their RPI.

East side #1 hosts east side #4. East side #2 hosts #3.

West side is the same. West 1 hosts west 4. West 2 hosts west 3.

If Beechwood or Belfry are #1, they will host #4 and neither of those two will be #4 RPI in the 4 teams left in the east.

Then in the semifinals, the 4 remaining teams are seeded by their RPI. 1 vs 4 and 2 vs 3. O Cath is #1 and almost surely will be in the final. Beechwood or Belfry will be #4 and travel to O Cath. The other will be #3 of the 4 teams left and travel to the winner of LCA vs Mayfield.

 

Edited October 25, 2025Oct 25 by Voice of Reason

41 minutes ago, Carl Spackler said:

What is the OOWP?  Opponents overall winning percentage?

Opponents' opponents winning percentage.

Edited October 25, 2025Oct 25 by Voice of Reason

4 hours ago, Voice of Reason said:

Opponents' opponents winning percentage.

Thank you. 

Brackets just out on Scoreboard….am I wrong?  If Mayfield(3) beats OC(1) and Beechwood’s(6) victory over Campbell Co. gives them enough RPI kick to move up to #5….would the Tigers travel to LCA in Lexington for round #4?  Given all other games go as expected.

2 minutes ago, Oldercoach said:

Brackets just out on Scoreboard….am I wrong?  If Mayfield(3) beats OC(1) and Beechwood’s(6) victory over Campbell Co. gives them enough RPI kick to move up to #5….would the Tigers travel to LCA in Lexington for round #4?  Given all other games go as expected.

Pay little attention to the brackets. With RPI based reseeding that happens in rounds 3 and 4, anything posted after round 2 is subject to change.

I will add this, as the overall #1 seed, Owensboro Catholic can only play Mayfield or LCA in the state title game. Just like Beechwood and Belfry can only meet in the title game.

Edited October 26, 2025Oct 26 by Voice of Reason

On 10/26/2025 at 8:29 AM, Oldercoach said:

Brackets just out on Scoreboard….am I wrong?  If Mayfield(3) beats OC(1) and Beechwood’s(6) victory over Campbell Co. gives them enough RPI kick to move up to #5….would the Tigers travel to LCA in Lexington for round #4?  Given all other games go as expected.

VOR is right.  Brackets are only good for 2 rounds, then they shake it up again.  If these RPI numbers were to hold, and if the first two rounds go fairly chalk, then the 3rd round would look something like this...

WEST:  Somerset or Danville at O'Cath and Mayfield at LCA

EAST:  Breathitt or Bracken at Belfry and Prestonsburg at Beechwood 

Then Thanksgiving weekend is going to be a lot of fun!!

On 10/26/2025 at 9:38 AM, Watusi said:

VOR is right.  Brackets are only good for 2 rounds, then they shake it up again.  If these RPI numbers were to hold, and if the first two rounds go fairly chalk, then the 3rd round would look something like this...

WEST:  Somerset or Danville at O'Cath and Mayfield at LCA

EAST:  Breathitt or Bracken at Belfry and Prestonsburg at Beechwood 

Then Thanksgiving weekend is going to be a lot of fun!!

Got it, so a trip to LCA is possible if Tigers’ RPI gets past Belfry after this week?

6 hours ago, Oldercoach said:

Got it, so a trip to LCA is possible if Tigers’ RPI gets past Belfry after this week?

Don’t even think about any team from the Western side until the Semi Finals.

 

Round three will only be against an Eastern team and as long as Belfry and Beechwood are the top two RPI teams in the East they will not play and both will be hosting.

Semi Finals is when it doesn’t matter if you are East or West and everyone is seeded.

Most likely scenario will be Beechwood will be on the road in the Semi Finals. I don’t see Beechwood passing Mayfield which means as long as OCath wins against Somerset then Beechwood will be traveling to either OCath or whoever wins the LCA/Mayfield game.

The only real scenario where Belfry and Beechwood play would probably need a Somerset/Danville upset of OCath in Round 3. Then there would be a pretty strong chance Belfry and Beechwood play in the Semi’s in that case.

 

13 hours ago, Oldercoach said:

Brackets just out on Scoreboard….am I wrong?  If Mayfield(3) beats OC(1) and Beechwood’s(6) victory over Campbell Co. gives them enough RPI kick to move up to #5….would the Tigers travel to LCA in Lexington for round #4?  Given all other games go as expected.

Just a reminder for everyone, the RPI locks after Week 10. No one gets credit or debited based on playoff opponents.

8 hours ago, ATLCat said:

Don’t even think about any team from the Western side until the Semi Finals.

 

Round three will only be against an Eastern team and as long as Belfry and Beechwood are the top two RPI teams in the East they will not play and both will be hosting.

Semi Finals is when it doesn’t matter if you are East or West and everyone is seeded.

Most likely scenario will be Beechwood will be on the road in the Semi Finals. I don’t see Beechwood passing Mayfield which means as long as OCath wins against Somerset then Beechwood will be traveling to either OCath or whoever wins the LCA/Mayfield game.

The only real scenario where Belfry and Beechwood play would probably need a Somerset/Danville upset of OCath in Round 3. Then there would be a pretty strong chance Belfry and Beechwood play in the Semi’s in that case.

 

Thought there was a chance Tigers could go to LCA…..but, bunch of things have to happen like after Campbell Co win they get enough of a bump to be #4 and Belfry #5 in RPI for starters.

2 hours ago, Oldercoach said:

Thought there was a chance Tigers could go to LCA…..but, bunch of things have to happen like after Campbell Co win they get enough of a bump to be #4 and Belfry #5 in RPI for starters.

No chance in Round 3. None.

LCA is in the West.

The only chance would be in the Semi-Finals.

Alright so here we are... final week:

First to recap last week. It was a key week for Belfry and Mayfield.

Mayfield's week went well. 6A McCracken County got a big win over Henderson and 5A Graves County picked up another win. 

If Belfry wanted any chance at the 2 seed they needed big help. East Carter losing to Russell basically took that off the table. I said that Belfry would jump Danville and they did, but the bigger picture was could Belfry get neck and neck with Mayfield or even jump them. With Mayfield getting the wins they needed and East Carter losing it puts Belfry in a situation where they will probably need some help to pass Mayfield. 

Beechwood needed that Campbell County win the maximize the value of their final game and needed any win from they could get from teams they have played. This was kind of a lull week for Beechwood but they are exactly where they want to be staring down a 6A game with Campbell County who now is one win better.

As previously mentioned, OCath is basically locked at the 1. LCA is not locked at the 2 but any path for Mayfield or anyone else passing them will require an unexpected outcome from the teams that LCA has lost to. LCA close with a weak 6A team but that is a huge RPI hurdle Belfry and Mayfield probably cannot pick up ground on.

The race between Mayfield, Belfry, Beechwood will be very tight. Too close to call tight (especially between Beechwood/Belfry).

 

This week's key games:

1. Campbell County at Beechwood- Beechwood should win this game, but this is the Tigers' last big move on the chess board. Mayfield and Belfry has 3A opponents to end, so as long as Beechwood wins they will gain ground on both. The question I cannot answer is will it be enough?

2. PRP at LCA- The one win Panthers should be no match for LCA, but despite playing a struggling team this one will have a significant RPI boost based off the class multiplier and make it very difficult for the other 2A teams (most notable Mayfield) to catch LCA without some help.

3. Bracken County at Pikeville- I hinted before and now it is hear. On the surface this is a game most will overlook but this could be the difference in seeding for Belfry and Beechwood. Pikeville (a Belfry win) continues to rise in RPI value and Bracken County is a head to head win of Beechwood's. If Pikeville wins then not only does this help Belfry but it will hurt Beechwood. As close as this race is, this may be a key game.

4. Belfry at Letcher Central- Belfry will be a noted favorite, but remember this game was much tighter than expected last year and not decided until late in the 4th. With Belfry and Mayfield having a mutual foe in Mayfield's last game (Central) this is a chance for Belfry to pick up some ground on Mayfield and at the same time limit ground loss when Beechwood beats Campbell County.

5. Central at Mayfield- Mayfield should be able to handle a Central team who is a bit anemic on Offense, but this is a must win game. A couple things add to the mystique here. First of all Belfry has already beat Central so if Mayfield were to lose this would be undoubtedly enough for Belfry to leapfrog the Cardinals and also probably Beechwood as well. Secondly, Central has an unexpected drama with their Coach leaving. Can they rally for an upset? Doubtful, but this isn't some no name team you can just expect to show up and beat.

 

Wildcard Games- These are games where we can probably feel confident who the winner will be, but the other team at least has a chance for an upset that we have seen in these final week games when Halloween makes spooky things happen:

Russell at Breathitt County- I don't think Breathitt can pass Pburg, and even then I don't think it even matters big picture... but Breathitt has a chance for a really nice RPI score to end the year Pburg does not have.

Raceland at East Carter- East Carter got clubbed by Russell and everyone expected that to be the more winnable game, but playing at home and playing for their pride could give them a chance in a game that would help Belfry.

Southwestern at Rockcastle County- Southwestern has been very competitive against some 5A teams expected to beat them handily. Rockcastle is a step down in class but not in competition, but the Rockets would certainly be a nice OWP and OOWP score for Belfry if Southwestern finds a win.

Cooper at Simon Kenton/Dixie Heights at Ryle- We can say the same about either game. Would be a completely surprising result, but either result being an upset would definitely help Beechwood.

Leslie County at Betsy Layne/Pike Central at Powell County- Not a big difference maker, but both of these games are winnable games for the District 8 team that could be fractional decimal points that Belfry could use. 

Grant County at Walton-Verona- Little sneaky wildcard here as W-V plays a vulnerable 4A team. Beechwood's district foes also have some prime opportunities for wins, but the majority of their games will be "play down" games against 1A teams, meanwhile Bracken County and St. Henry have tough tests they aren't expected to win. A win by W-V would be a decent little bump to their RPI rating and help Beechwood.

Crittenden County at Hopkins Central/Webster County at Todd Central- Similar to above, Mayfield's district foes aren't likely to help much as Caldwell will be a huge underdog to Murray (other than boosting OOWP), but the good news is two teams play up in class against bad 3A teams and could help find those decimal points Mayfield needs to help hold off Belfry/Beechwood.

55 minutes ago, ATLCat said:

No chance in Round 3. None.

LCA is in the West.

The only chance would be in the Semi-Finals.

Thanks for confirming, just looking for a glimmer of hope that the death March to War Memorial might not happen.

My "throw spaghetti at the wall" percentage chances by seeds of the District Winners.

1 Seed

OCath -95%

LCA- 5%

 

2 Seed

LCA- 80%

OCath-5%

Mayfield- 5%

Belfry- 5%

Beechwood- 5%

 

3 Seed

Mayfield- 35%

Belfry- 25%

Beechwood- 25%

LCA-15%

 

4 Seed

Belfry- 35%

Beechwood- 35%

Mayfield- 30%

 

5 Seed

Belfry- 35%

Beechwood- 35%

Mayfield 30%

 

6 Seed

Pburg- 50%

Somerset- 35%

Breathitt- 15%

 

7 Seed

Somerset- 55%

Pburg- 25%

Breathitt- 20%

 

8 Seed

Breathitt- 65%

Pburg- 25%

Somerset- 10%

 

 

One Final Note:

Beechwood's resume won't be 100% complete, but it will be about 90% complete going into the Friday games. Most of their big ticket games will be played Thursday night whereas Belfry and Mayfield primarily see their key games played the next night.

Beechwood's rating won't be expected to improve much after Friday's games and should give us a good idea of the lay of the land. If Beechwood is trialing Mayfield or neck and neck with Belfry after Thursday it won't bode well for the Tigers' ability to pass those teams.