1	Owensboro Catholic	2A	2	5	-	1			6	1.28150	.46157	.74373	.83319
2	Danville	2A	4	5	-	1			6	1.00690	.68814	.54869	.75787
3	Belfry	2A	8	5	-	1			6	.97009	.60362	.64971	.74571
4	Mayfield	2A	1	5	-	1			6	1.16973	.38427	.62195	.73048
5	Beechwood	2A	5	4	-	1			5	1.05391	.51767	.57801	.72346
6	Lexington Christian	2A	4	2	-	3			5	.57975	.99854	.49745	.70164
7	Monroe County	2A	3	5	-	1			6	1.06060	.43895	.56313	.69378
8	Breathitt County	2A	6	4	-	2			6	.82840	.62604	.59343	.68708
9	Somerset	2A	3	5	-	1			6	.92012	.54440	.55729	.67977
10	Prestonsburg	2A	7	5	-	0			5	1.00000	.43151	.59195	.67862
11	Green County	2A	3	4	-	2			6	.85273	.61526	.50211	.66443
12	Martin County	2A	7	5	-	1			6	.85832	.50619	.61753	.66283
13	Caldwell County	2A	1	5	-	1			6	.97009	.37115	.55849	.63698
14	Bracken County	2A	5	3	-	2			5	.66443	.61994	.51157	.60300
15	Washington County	2A	4	3	-	3			6	.64048	.57605	.57447	.59813
16	Hancock County	2A	2	4	-	2			6	.86084	.34874	.57680	.59639
17	WEB DuBois	2A	4	3	-	3			6	.57868	.66076	.49996	.58379
18	Knott County Central	2A	7	5	-	1			6	.79268	.47025	.46321	.58099
19	Fort Knox	2A	2	3	-	3			6	.69417	.44141	.48427	.54274
20	Crittenden County	2A	1	3	-	3			6	.52498	.49372	.53637	.51745
21	Shawnee	2A	4	3	-	3			6	.61177	.40220	.51989	.51085
22	Fort Campbell	2A	1	3	-	3			6	.52498	.53495	.46103	.50929
23	Metcalfe County	2A	3	1	-	5			6	.19165	.74444	.49192	.47521
24	McLean County	2A	2	3	-	3			6	.61177	.35735	.44941	.47402
25	Owen County	2A	5	2	-	3			5	.42998	.52343	.46328	.47268
26	West Carter	2A	6	2	-	4			6	.35832	.60601	.42197	.46411
27	Betsy Layne	2A	8	2	-	4			6	.33333	.58839	.43680	.45364
28	East Ridge	2A	8	2	-	4			6	.33333	.55049	.46597	.44913
29	Pike County Central	2A	8	1	-	4			5	.20000	.62789	.48422	.43503
30	Leslie County	2A	7	2	-	4			6	.33333	.43437	.51210	.42233
31	Shelby Valley	2A	8	1	-	4			5	.20000	.58838	.46301	.41484
32	Trigg County	2A	1	1	-	5			6	.25345	.44180	.52826	.40182
33	St. Henry	2A	5	1	-	4			5	.20000	.54925	.37886	.37589
34	Clinton County	2A	3	1	-	5			6	.19165	.45297	.45052	.36077
35	Morgan County	2A	6	2	-	4			6	.35832	.26751	.41482	.34349
36	Todd County Central	2A	1	1	-	5			6	.16667	.43979	.42738	.34047
37	Walton-Verona	2A	5	1	-	4			5	.20000	.33872	.45674	.32558
38	Floyd Central	2A	7	1	-	5			6	.19165	.27870	.48091	.30890
39	Gallatin County	2A	5	1	-	4			5	.20000	.29690	.41005	.29693
40	Jackson County	2A	6	0	-	5			5	.00000	.36195	.46220	.26534

So, if I am correct, 6 out of the top 10 teams are from the west?  That is with all the new alignment.  

- The good news for Beechwood and Belfry is unless one of them stubs their toe in a way not expected.. they should be able to avoid each other in Round 3. Lots of ground for Pburg or Breathitt to have to make up to catch them.

- Belfry/Beechwood/Mayfield are going to come down to the wire to see who ends up at in that 2nd seed and a potential Semi-Final host. I love the Danville story but don't expect them to stick at #2 once they play LCA. 

-LCA higher than expected with three losses but it's going to be a tough putt to get to the 2nd seed in the West over a Mayfield... let alone a second overall seed. With the other top teams all expected to win out... LCA most likely is destined to be the road team noone wants to see.

-Somerset has a gauntlet waiting for them. A likely 2nd Round game hosting vs. Danville, a likely trip to OCath, then if they somehow win that a likely trip to the 2nd overall seed. In other words, strong chance that as it currently sits Somerset may have to beat four of the top 6 teams potentially as the RPI currently shows to win a title.

- On the flip side, Belfry currently sitting in prime real estate if they can hold their spot. If Danville falls out and Belfry can get the 2nd overall seed it looks like a path with Knott Central/Leslie Round 1, Martin County Round 2, hosting Breathitt County, then seeing anyone not named LCA or SOmerset have to load up the bus for a 4+ hour road trip to Pond Creek in the Semi's.

Danville at 2? I don't mean any disrespect, but I am assuming that won't be that way forever... They get the bump from playing the 5A and 4A schools.... but surely that will come down by the end of the year right?

13 minutes ago, ATLCat said:

- The good news for Beechwood and Belfry is unless one of them stubs their toe in a way not expected.. they should be able to avoid each other in Round 3. Lots of ground for Pburg or Breathitt to have to make up to catch them.

- Belfry/Beechwood/Mayfield are going to come down to the wire to see who ends up at in that 2nd seed and a potential Semi-Final host. I love the Danville story but don't expect them to stick at #2 once they play LCA. 

-LCA higher than expected with three losses but it's going to be a tough putt to get to the 2nd seed in the West over a Mayfield... let alone a second overall seed. With the other top teams all expected to win out... LCA most likely is destined to be the road team noone wants to see.

-Somerset has a gauntlet waiting for them. A likely 2nd Round game hosting vs. Danville, a likely trip to OCath, then if they somehow win that a likely trip to the 2nd overall seed. In other words, strong chance that as it currently sits Somerset may have to beat four of the top 6 teams potentially as the RPI currently shows to win a title.

- On the flip side, Belfry currently sitting in prime real estate if they can hold their spot. If Danville falls out and Belfry can get the 2nd overall seed it looks like a path with Knott Central/Leslie Round 1, Martin County Round 2, hosting Breathitt County, then seeing anyone not named LCA or SOmerset have to load up the bus for a 4+ hour road trip to Pond Creek in the Semi's.

So what is OCath's path?

11 minutes ago, Subway5024 said:

So what is OCath's path?

Win out in the regular season and OCath is sitting pretty as the overall 1 seed hosting until Finals.

Potential path if I were to blindly prognosticate right now looks like:

Rd 1 Host Ft. Campbell/Todd Central

Rd 2 Host Caldwell County

Rd 3: Host Somerset

Rd 4: Host someone really good Beechwood, Mayfield, LCA, Belfry.. based on current seeds if Danville washes out... let's say LCA or Beechwood as a guess.

Rd 5: Play someone really good Beechwood, Mayfield, LCA, Belfry.. let's say Belfry or Mayfield as a guess.

1 hour ago, AppalachianTactician said:

Danville at 2? I don't mean any disrespect, but I am assuming that won't be that way forever... They get the bump from playing the 5A and 4A schools.... but surely that will come down by the end of the year right?

Yeah, Danville's bump is from some victories over higher classed schools and they may notch one over 6A Southern this week.  The rest of the season has two district games vs. W.E.B. Du Bois and LCA (the toughest game left on the schedule).  Season wraps up with 1A Caverna.

LCA will be a huge favorite over Danville and that will knock the Ads back if they lose.

Beechwood's district will cause them to lose ground till Bracken Co. week 10. With Bracken County week 10 and 6A Campbell County week 11, Beechwood will be hoping for wins and an RPI ranking come back the last 2 weeks.

52 minutes ago, Voice of Reason said:

Beechwood's district will cause them to lose ground till Bracken Co. week 10. With Bracken County week 10 and 6A Campbell County week 11, Beechwood will be hoping for wins and an RPI ranking come back the last 2 weeks.

Beechwood REALLY needs CovCath to beat especially Cathedral and also Highlands. As Beechwood's lone loss this is a RPI loophole that is bringing Beechwood down. CovCath may very well win the State Title but the CPU's don't like them right now and if they lose to Cathedral they really won't like CovCath.

NewCath will start helping Beechwood a little. They should finally start adding some wins to finish the season. Even if Campbell County is a low rated 6A team those bonus points will help... Danville has proven that.

I'm curious to see how much ground LCA picks up. District 4 has way more wins for each team then last year, where the district hurt them. If they win out, Danville is going to help them, and picking up a week 10 game against 6A PRP is going to help too. 

IMO the 2A RPI is ridiculous…..  

I hope I’m wrong, but OCA seems to have a cake walk into State Finals when Beechwood, Belfry, LCA and Mayfield will duke it out to get there.  
 

Home field advantage in 3rd and 2nd round are crucial for each team.

1 minute ago, The_Bull44 said:

IMO the 2A RPI is ridiculous…..  

I hope I’m wrong, but OCA seems to have a cake walk into State Finals when Beechwood, Belfry, LCA and Mayfield will duke it out to get there.  
 

Home field advantage in 3rd and 2nd round are crucial for each team.

I don't think anyone will have a cake walk to the finals in 2A. The semifinals are going to be state championship caliber opponents matching up.

BW’s RPI going to nosedive for at least next 3 weeks.  Could outscore opps 150-0 and it will still happen.

25 minutes ago, Voice of Reason said:

I don't think anyone will have a cake walk to the finals in 2A. The semifinals are going to be state championship caliber opponents matching up.

Maybe not a cake walk for OCA, BUT they will have it much much easier than the other 4 teams mentioned.

Really hurts not having home field advantage in 3rd round and Semi-Finals, just because the RPI is not accurate.

16 minutes ago, The_Bull44 said:

Maybe not a cake walk for OCA, BUT they will have it much much easier than the other 4 teams mentioned.

Really hurts not having home field advantage in 3rd round and Semi-Finals, just because the RPI is not accurate.

I don’t see OCath having a cakewalk if that’s who OCA IS!  Belfry and beechwood avoid each other.   Then you have prestonburg and Breathitt from the east. All the other is from the west. Somerset, Monroe, Danville, mayfield, OCath and Lca. Don’t know a whole lot about Monroe and Danville this year but Somerset, mayfield, Lca and OCath look like regional finalists.  This is based on previous years of course and Danville and Monroe could surprise us!!