I'm thinking LCA will have to travel to Mayfield in the round of 8, then a semi of Beechwood traveling to Owensboro to play Catholic while Mayfield/LCA winner heading to Pond Creek to take on the Pirates. Any of those matchups will be must see games.

1 hour ago, Subway5024 said:

I don’t see OCath having a cakewalk if that’s who OCA IS!  Belfry and beechwood avoid each other.   Then you have prestonburg and Breathitt from the east. All the other is from the west. Somerset, Monroe, Danville, mayfield, OCath and Lca. Don’t know a whole lot about Monroe and Danville this year but Somerset, mayfield, Lca and OCath look like regional finalists.  This is based on previous years of course and Danville and Monroe could surprise us!!

2A is a 5 team race. The two losers in the format are LCA and Mayfield but with Belfry moving down this year there had to be a big matchup in the 3rd round any way you look at it. 5 teams can’t make the final four. Whoever wins 2A will have to beat at least 2 VERY good teams to do so.

11 hours ago, Astro Domino said:

2A is a 5 team race. The two losers in the format are LCA and Mayfield but with Belfry moving down this year there had to be a big matchup in the 3rd round any way you look at it. 5 teams can’t make the final four. Whoever wins 2A will have to beat at least 2 VERY good teams to do so.

I'll add I don't think Somerset is quite on the same level as the Top 5... but the Jumpers are a very good team and IMHO a massive step up from teams 7-10.

In most 2A years this is easily a Top 5 type of Somerset team.

I am not sure they are built to win multiple games against the Top 5, but Somerset is very much a team you need to watch out for to snakebite one of the best teams if they get caught looking ahead or not giving Somerset their undivided attention.

I think Somerset is a team who can play within two scores of 2A's best on most nights. With a couple lucky breaks, a couple favorable bounces, and maybe the right play call they can make things interesting.

 

The way I see it:

Beechwood

OCath/LCA/Mayfield/Belfry

Somerset

Danville/Pburg/Monroe/Breathitt/Caldwell County

Martin County/Green County/WEB Dubois/Washington County/Bracken County/Hancock County

 

The Rest

Am I correct in thinking everyone in 2A not from Beechwood needs to be cheering for Highlands this week? 

Danville and Breathitt Co. are no threat to the top 10 teams in class 2A.

4 hours ago, Watusi said:

Am I correct in thinking everyone in 2A not from Beechwood needs to be cheering for Highlands this week? 

Oh yeah... and even more than than that... Go Cathedral (IN) in a few weeks. Two out of state losses for CovCath would be RPI quicksand.

1 minute ago, ATLCat said:

Oh yeah... and even more than than that... Go Cathedral (IN) in a few weeks. Two out of state losses for CovCath would be RPI quicksand.

Road Warriors!

6 hours ago, Watusi said:

Am I correct in thinking everyone in 2A not from Beechwood needs to be cheering for Highlands this week? 

 

1 hour ago, ATLCat said:

Oh yeah... and even more than than that... Go Cathedral (IN) in a few weeks. Two out of state losses for CovCath would be RPI quicksand.

Does one game make that big a difference in RPI? I guess we'll find out when next week's RPI comes out.

12 minutes ago, Voice of Reason said:

 

Does one game make that big a difference in RPI? I guess we'll find out when next week's RPI comes out.

One game won't... but when it is your only loss and everyone else only has one loss as well it definitely gets amplified more. Everyone is going to be pretty tight on their 9 wins. 

10 minutes ago, ATLCat said:

One game won't... but when it is your only loss and everyone else only has one loss as well it definitely gets amplified more. Everyone is going to be pretty tight on their 9 wins. 

So if COV CATH loses to Highlands and.or Cathedral, that is bad for Beechwood.  How so?  Will they drop so much they lose homefield advantage?  Would that put them playing belfry in the 3rd round?  Will it even matter, cause Beechwood is still a VERY Very good team...

7 minutes ago, Subway5024 said:

So if COV CATH loses to Highlands and.or Cathedral, that is bad for Beechwood.  How so?  Will they drop so much they lose homefield advantage?  Would that put them playing belfry in the 3rd round?  Will it even matter, cause Beechwood is still a VERY Very good team...

Trying to keep it under a 1000 words  for everyone LOL

Everything counts in the RPI. It is a blind CPU with no bias. It is a collection of formulas with no bias, no application of conventional logic, and no investigation beyond the results.

There are three primary parts to the RPI formula that ultimately is weighted as "win or loss" 

WP is the biggest factor and weighted the heaviest- Essentially the school's direct result of their game. Did they win or did they lose? Additionally there are weighting factors applied if you played down or up in Class. The RPI is win heavy. In this case CovCath was a loss. How the RPI weights that loss matters if you compare it to how it weights the loss of other 2A teams.

OWP then basically takes every team you play and apply what their opponents do. Essentially how many wins and bonus point for playing up does the teams they played  amplify the result

OOWP then takes all those 2nd level opponents and amplifies and refines it a little more.

 

So the case of CovCath. A great team to the naked eye and a great team to the logical fan. The KHSAA only views them as a collection of results and mathematical functions. CovCath is the one "blemish" on Beechwood's statistical formula. All the other top 5 2A teams will all also have likely one blemish (LCA probably will have three blemishes). 

The RPI's major flaw is it is painfully a face value calculation of out of state opponents. To the RPI Computer every out of state opponent is a .500 winning percentage team who only has played .500 winning percentage teams who have only played.500 winning percentage teams. CovCath already has lost to an Elder team that is better in every metric than what the RPI views them. CovCath has to still play Cathedral who is an even potentially more drastic example if CCH loses.  So essentially each time CCH loses to these out of state teams it amplifies that one blemish on Beechwood's resume. It also has a negative bearing on any team counting CovCath in their calculation that beechwood has also played. If CCH loses to Highlands it hurts as well, but not nearly as painful as an out of state loss. 

To answer your other question.. it is going to be very difficult for Beechwood and Belfry to fall to where they will be paired in the 3rd Round. That's good news for both. If both win out as expected of course. With that said, all five teams are going to be very thinly separated by RPI if they win out. With such a close calculation it will be a thin line between being a Top 2 seed or a seed who will need to make a long Semi-Final trip somewhere to play a great team. Will one CovCath result be the defining factor? Doubtful, ultimately who you beat is the bigger key... but if the RPI sees Belfry (Johnson Central), Mayfield (Tilghman), OCath (Owensboro), and Beechwood (CCH) and views their wins very similarly then the difference between each of those losses may make a difference and right now all those losses have a strong chance to finish at a very high value. CCH is a loss that has the chance for a vulnerability to be really mis-judged by the CPU.

 

Shew... done.. HAHA. I ain't even getting started on how LCA still has a chance to make a move up despite their three losses. 

 

 

One thing to add...

To show how finicky these things are... I think Beechwood also has a very realistic path to the 2nd seed.

If CovCath beats Highlands then that will certainly help to buoy CC's resume even if they lose to Cathedral.

More importantly, all those 6A teams that Beechwood beat and Campbell County remaining are potential game changers if they can find some wins down the stretch. Beechwood got a big bonus bump jumping 4 classes. Those teams will be beating up on each other which doesn't necessarily help a ton, but if they all can find some wins against teams like Great Crossing, Boone County, and Simon Kenton then this could really have a big amplification effect.

NewCath hasn't helped Beechwood yet. It was a play down win and they are losing often. NewCath should string together a handful of wins so their rating isn't as bad of a win.

What will not help Beechwood is their District may have the lowest value of all the 2A District right now. Belfry has a weak district slate ahead as well. OCath's isn't anything special either but Hancock County does help them more than Belfry and Beechwood's running mates.

One of the lesser spoken on problems with RPI in my eyes is the fact that some districts such as Beechwood’s and Mayfield’s have 6 teams while OCath’s district only has 4 teams. So while BW and Mayfield are forced to play 2 more weak 2A teams, OCath has the oppurtunity to play 2 more lower quality big schools to gain an advantage in computer points. I just don’t see the fairness in that. Correct me if I’m wrong on that point. With that being said, I am still a firm believer that you still have to beat the best to win it all, whether it is home or away or 3rd or 4th round or the State Championship.

1 hour ago, Astro Domino said:

One of the lesser spoken on problems with RPI in my eyes is the fact that some districts such as Beechwood’s and Mayfield’s have 6 teams while OCath’s district only has 4 teams. So while BW and Mayfield are forced to play 2 more weak 2A teams, OCath has the oppurtunity to play 2 more lower quality big schools to gain an advantage in computer points. I just don’t see the fairness in that. Correct me if I’m wrong on that point. With that being said, I am still a firm believer that you still have to beat the best to win it all, whether it is home or away or 3rd or 4th round or the State Championship.

They just have one more non district game against Etown who is 3-A.

Edited October 3, 2025Oct 3 by theguru

4 hours ago, TimeWillTell said:

They just have one more non district game against Etown who is 3-A.

I get that. But they play 7 non-district games on their schedule. Beechwood and Mayfield only have 5. They are forced to play 5 2A games where OCath has 2 extra slots to play bigger schools. I just used these schools as an obvious example and relating to 2A. That’s got to be a disadvantage to the 6 team districts.