53 minutes ago, Oldercoach said:

On 9/28 Beechwood’s RPI was .72436.  Since District play they have won 4 consecutive running clock games by combined scores of 263-6 which produced an RPI decline to .67523 and a current 6th seeding.  Got to gulp a little.  

Not much Beechwood can say or do. The 6 team district hurts. I would like see KHSAA allow teams with 6 team districts be able to remove one district team from their RPI. That would help a little. Beyond that, Beechwood needs the teams in their district to get better. St. Henry is going to get there. Need Walton Verona to get back to the level they were a few years ago. Get those two programs on track with Bracken County and it will help RPI a good amount.

So how did everything we discussed play out this past weekend?

- We predicted this would be the week LCA beat Danville and made the move to #2. That happened.

- Everything went right for LCA this week.

- We predicted that even though Somerset vs. Monroe was huge in terms of strategic winning of a district, that from a RPI standpoint the fate of that District's winner is pretty well sealed. That appears to be in place as expected.

- We predicted that Beechwood still needed help to stay in the race and they got that help as Dixie Heights got a win and NewCath keeps winning. Ultimately the race between Belfry/Mayfield/Beechwood is a tight one.. there are still paths for all to get to the 2 seed but it is going to be very hard to pass LCA without some help.

- Mayfield needed a Graves win and they got it.

- Breathitt/Pburg is going to be tight until the end to determine who plays Belfry and who plays Beechwood.

- The one result most didn't see coming was Apollo knocking off Madisonville. This only strengthens OPCath's spot at the top more.

So how about this coming week:

- It is Belfry's time to take center stage in the moving day sweepstakes. Though Belfry has another subpar RPI game against Shelby Valley in direct head to head, this is kind of Belfry's make or break week for contending for the 2 or 3 seed and helping their ability to avoid a long road trip. East Carter, Johnson Central, and Pikeville all have games that Belfry needs a win in.

Johnson Central and Pikeville will be favorites in both of their games, but are both playing teams capable of winning (Ashland and Hazard respectively). East Carter vs. Russell is a huge one. Basically, Belfry's margin of error to get a 2 or 3 seed requires all three of these teams to win out and East Carter is the least likely to do so (but they do have more than a fair chance as well). If all three teams win I expect Belfry to jump Danville and be neck and neck with Mayfield coming out of this week.. 

- Mayfield really doesn't have a lot of opportunities for BIG moves left, but the Cardinals are in the position of having a lower ceiling but a higher floor for how their RPI shakes out. The good news for Mayfield is they have some 5A and 6A wins that are starting to rack up wins and boosting Mayfield in the process with bonus points each time. This is a lowkey important week for Mayfield as they might not se a sweeping move up the standings, but this is the week they could either solidify their positioning or slip up and see others pass. In other words, 6.5 hours separate Belfry and Mayfield. These two teams may not have to experience that drive, but if they do there is a chance this week could play a big hand in who ends up having to make that trip and who doesn't if it occurred. 

Key Games This Week:

1.  East Carter at Russell- As previously mentioned this is the big one in terms of impact this week. East Carter stands as Belfry's best win as a 3A bump who keeps winning. The Raiders get their stiffest test since the Belfry game travelling to Russell for the District Title. These two have been pretty tightly contested in the recent past. A win further strengthens Belfry's best victory and makes Beechwood's margin of error zero in terms of getting wins from their help.

2. Ashland at Johnson Central- One of the things keeping Belfry in the race is their best loss is to one of the top teams in 4A in RPI.  Johnson Central enters as a favorite but this rivalry has been very unpredictable. This game has a two-part tie-in as well. Belfry and LCA are linked by Ashland in OOWP. Ashland ends their year playing Lexington Catholic, arguably LCA's best win. If Belfry has any hopes of passing LCA they really need an Ashland loss against JC and an Ashland win against LexCath as their best path to make up some ground directly.

3. Prestonsburg at Martin County- This one will decide District 7. Pburg is probably a noted favorite in this one, but Martin County has the chance to play spoiler and ruin the Blackcats' undefeated season. The Cardinals have not lost since their season opener and have two of the most underrated players in Class 2A in QB Devan Maynard and RB/LB Crayson Lafferty. Maynard will probably hit the 1000 yard passing and 1000 yard rushing mark this week.

4. McCracken County at Henderson County- Mayfield has a must win situation in a game that should be competitive that could have a big bearing on their RPI fortunes. McCracken has turned into Mayfield's best win and Mayfield's best path to all things homefield hinges on the Mustangs closing out the season with two wins. The final showdown against Graves County is a winner either way for Mayfield, but anytime you have two teams playing you want the higher class to win. This one is big for Mayfield, they need McCracken to hold off Henderson for a big 6A vs. 6A score.

5. Pikeville at Hazard- Don't look now but Belfry's win over Pikevile has turned into a very good RPI score for the Pirates. Pikeville has went from a team in the teens of the initial 1A RPI to a team with a very likely path to finish 3rd and maybe even 2nd depending on a couple pivotal final week games. Hazard is a tough team and capable of shocking the Panthers and really hurting Belfry. It's also worth noting that for teams like Breathitt and Pburg who are still in contention in the East, or even Somerset who has some upsets on their mind to the Semi-Finals, a Hazard win and a worst case scenario finish for Belfry is their easiest chance to make up ground or even hosting Belfry at some point. Simply put, a Belfry loss to Letcher Central (who Breathitt beat) couple with a Hazard win over Pikeville (PBurg beat Hazard) firmly puts both of those teams in the race for hosting a 3rd Round game and sending Belfry on the road.

 

Other Games of Major Note:

Great Crossing at Campbell County- Beechwood's hopes and dreams stay alive but they are all tied to their playing up bonus wins over Simon Kenton and Dixie Heights and their pending game against 6A Campbell County that everyone expects the Tigers to win. Great Crossing is a low hanging fruit that has to be picked off to strengthen these wins. Campbell County has that opportunity and Beechwood really needs it.

Owensboro at Madisonville- One of the most critical games in the entire state tactfully speaking but this one also has a 2A RPI component. Owensboro Catholic is sitting in the catbird seat already but they can all but shut down the competition if Owensboro wins this game and cements the Aces' lone loss as an elite loss. Remember the story in 2A is four of the top five teams will all share one loss and then LCA has multiple very good losses. LCA may be the only team with even a glimmer of hope to catch OCath but a massive OWP win here shuts that door.

Manual at North Hardin- I think most would be very surprised if North Hardin wins, but they do have a chance. OCath is going to be very had to catch at #1 especially after Apollo got a surprise win. LCA needs a lot of help and the first pace to find that help would be a surprise upset from their 6A win against the Trojans.

Hopkinsville at Christian County- It's the end of a rivalry that has at times been very significant in the Kentucky landscape. Neither team is exactly a powerhouse this year, but this does have an impact on Mayfield. The Cardinals could really benefit from a Christian County upset. Is it likely? Doubtful.. but what better way to end this series then digging deep and shocking everyone?

Muhlenberg County at Graves County- We mentioned Mayfield needed Graves to get a win against Marshall and now Muhlenberg. The Eagles should oblige them and this will give Mayfield a boost.  

 

 

How I think it stands after this week (excluding Danville):

1. OCath- Almost untouchable.

2. LCA- Firm grasp with a 6A game left.

3. Mayfield- By a hair.

4. Belfry- In position to overtake Mayfield.

5. Beechwood- Biding their time and hanging back but waiting for a 6A score to end the year.

6. Prestonsburg- Chasing the pack but generally happy where they are with an undefeated mark and adding distance on Breathitt.

7. Breathitt County- Narrowly ahead.

8. Somerset- Wishing they beat South Laurel so bad and wondering how Southwestern can't win anymore.

16 hours ago, Voice of Reason said:

Not much Beechwood can say or do. The 6 team district hurts. I would like see KHSAA allow teams with 6 team districts be able to remove one district team from their RPI. That would help a little. Beyond that, Beechwood needs the teams in their district to get better. St. Henry is going to get there. Need Walton Verona to get back to the level they were a few years ago. Get those two programs on track with Bracken County and it will help RPI a good amount.

Bracken County loses 13 seniors. They'll come back to earth next year. 

16 hours ago, Voice of Reason said:

Not much Beechwood can say or do. The 6 team district hurts. I would like see KHSAA allow teams with 6 team districts be able to remove one district team from their RPI. That would help a little. Beyond that, Beechwood needs the teams in their district to get better. St. Henry is going to get there. Need Walton Verona to get back to the level they were a few years ago. Get those two programs on track with Bracken County and it will help RPI a good amount.

Here is my controversial solution...

- I think every team has to count three District wins at most. All losses must be counted as one of those three results and once you lose a District game you lose the ability to replace any wins. In other words if you don't go undefeated in District play your District wins all count toward your RPI.

- For those undefeated in a five team district you can replace your weakest District Win if you win four games by duplicating your 2nd best District win. You also have the choice to replicate your weakest Non-District result in it's place.

- For those undefeated in a Six Team District the same rule applies except using the same results you can choose to replicate the 2nd best District win or replicating the same weakest Non-District result for both games.

- In this example, Beechwood could replace Owen County and Gallatin County by replicating their Bracken County win or they could choose to replace both by replicating their class drop win over NewCath, whichever number is highest. Belfry could replace East Ridge with Shelby Valley potentially or they could choose to replace East Ridge with a class jump win over 5A Southwestern who only wins 1 game. Mayfield can drop Todd County and either replace it with Caldwell County or replace it with a class jump win over 3A Central. 

- For a team like Breathitt County who gets a four team District they don't get this luxury. All three wins have to stand which puts pressure on them to ramp up their non-district schedule. In other words, if you are lucky enough to be in 4-team District the responsibility falls on your shoulder for not taking advantage of this when you schedule.

 

2 hours ago, ATLCat said:

Here is my controversial solution...

- I think every team has to count three District wins at most. All losses must be counted as one of those three results and once you lose a District game you lose the ability to replace any wins. In other words if you don't go undefeated in District play your District wins all count toward your RPI.

- For those undefeated in a five team district you can replace your weakest District Win if you win four games by duplicating your 2nd best District win. You also have the choice to replicate your weakest Non-District result in it's place.

- For those undefeated in a Six Team District the same rule applies except using the same results you can choose to replicate the 2nd best District win or replicating the same weakest Non-District result for both games.

- In this example, Beechwood could replace Owen County and Gallatin County by replicating their Bracken County win or they could choose to replace both by replicating their class drop win over NewCath, whichever number is highest. Belfry could replace East Ridge with Shelby Valley potentially or they could choose to replace East Ridge with a class jump win over 5A Southwestern who only wins 1 game. Mayfield can drop Todd County and either replace it with Caldwell County or replace it with a class jump win over 3A Central. 

- For a team like Breathitt County who gets a four team District they don't get this luxury. All three wins have to stand which puts pressure on them to ramp up their non-district schedule. In other words, if you are lucky enough to be in 4-team District the responsibility falls on your shoulder for not taking advantage of this when you schedule.

 

What about taking everyone in the states top 8 RPI games...?  That cover out of state games, 6 team districts, take some pressure off the scheduling circus that RPI creates.

43 minutes ago, okie1 said:

What about taking everyone in the states top 8 RPI games...?  That cover out of state games, 6 team districts, take some pressure off the scheduling circus that RPI creates.

That’s absolutely the best solution for this but it makes too much sense, which means almost zero chance that happens. 

49 minutes ago, okie1 said:

What about taking everyone in the states top 8 RPI games...?  That cover out of state games, 6 team districts, take some pressure off the scheduling circus that RPI creates.

It seems the logical path, but statistically by limiting the number of calculations and results you open the RPI to having more variance and inaccuracy.

"In Theory" any time you have a CPU based formula you want as many results as you can get to make it better. 

Now am I sitting here saying that by adding in two results playing the worst teams on your schedule it makes the RPI better... personally speaking I am not... but this would be the argument to be made that 8 results to judge off is not as accurate as 10 results.

 

Only read ahead if you are good with conjecture as well....

 

 

 

(I am not sure the KHSAA also would be too excited when their entire structure to sports and scheduling is based off a District System and this becomes a smoking gun showing how flawed that system is when 95% of the playoff teams who even get the RPI applied to them are disqualifying two district results every single time)

@ATLCat

Thanks for all your posts and deep dives on RPI. You are putting a lot of emphasis on wins by individual opponents. For example, you say Campbell County beating Great Crossing will be a big help to Beechwood. How much impact does that have on the numbers? I don't see much impact.

The only number impacted by that game is OWP. If Campbell County wins, their record is 3-6. Lose, 2-7. If I am running the numbers right, a Campbell County win over Great Crossing would add .0053 to Beechwood's RPI. Every little bit helps but that result by itself doesn't look to have much impact. 

Am I missing anything?

3 hours ago, LCDAWGS19 said:

Bracken County loses 13 seniors. They'll come back to earth next year. 

I am not sure what back to earth means. Take away one two year period with a head coach that didn't work, Bracken County has been well over .500 for the past 10 years.

6 minutes ago, Voice of Reason said:

@ATLCat

Thanks for all your posts and deep dives on RPI. You are putting a lot of emphasis on wins by individual opponents. For example, you say Campbell County beating Great Crossing will be a big help to Beechwood. How much impact does that have on the numbers? I don't see much impact.

The only number impacted by that game is OWP. If Campbell County wins, their record is 3-6. Lose, 2-7. If I am running the numbers right, a Campbell County win over Great Crossing would add .0053 to Beechwood's RPI. Every little bit helps but that result by itself doesn't look to have much impact. 

Am I missing anything?

Every little bit counts when it is going to be as tight as this appears to be coming down to. The amplifier of the multiplier for class jump though is applied to the WP and this is what is being missed I think.

Any win Campbell County gets essentially has more of an impact than a loss obviously. This either increases or best maintain their Opponent Value. When you apply the 6A play up multiplier to the win outcome that is then multiplied by the opponent value it has an amplification that makes it significant. On the flip side that is a multiplied value that gets left off the table.

Campbell County beating Great Crossing isn’t going to be the magic number by itself, but when you add Dixie beating Boone, Simon Kenton beating Great Crossing and Conner, now you have four wins that could have been losses that all get amplified.

The multiplier is necessary. Look at the 6A RPI values top to bottom and compare them to 1A. If you only look at the RPI rating it would have Simon Kenton as the #16 team in Class 1A. That bonus multiplier does a whole lot of work. KCD is not the #1 team in KY regardless of Class even though they have the highest RPI value. 

 

 

21 hours ago, Voice of Reason said:

I am not sure what back to earth means. Take away one two year period with a head coach that didn't work, Bracken County has been well over .500 for the past 10 years.

Back to earth means they won't be well over .500

21 hours ago, LCDAWGS19 said:

Back to earth means they won't be well over .500

This group of seniors has been a really good group for Bracken County, but I think you are selling the program a little short.

2022 7-3

2018 6-5

2017 9-3

2016 8-3

 

34 minutes ago, Voice of Reason said:

This group of seniors has been a really good group for Bracken County, but I think you are selling the program a little short.

2022 7-3

2018 6-5

2017 9-3

2016 8-3

 

Plus it is worth noting that as long as they stay in this 6 team District it is highly likely they get 3 wins each year minimum and 4 wins being likely. Walton-Verona is nowhere near the same level as a program as they were under Coach Barth 5-6 years ago. St. Henry has a chance to make headway in the future but it will probably take some time. Owen and Gallatin will be vulnerable every year.

As long as Bracken continues to schedule the way they have trended toward scheduling I would think 5-6 wins is pretty likely even in a bridge year.

On 10/22/2025 at 8:46 AM, Voice of Reason said:

This group of seniors has been a really good group for Bracken County, but I think you are selling the program a little short.

2022 7-3

2018 6-5

2017 9-3

2016 8-3

 

I hope I'm wrong... the history of football in Bracken County definitely had a rough start.