It will definitely be interesting to watch the RPI shift around weekly as these district games are played.  It could look a lot different in 4 weeks.  I can’t even begin to forecast 3rd and 4th round matchups based on these initial ratings as bad as I would like to.  

15 hours ago, ATLCat said:

One thing to add...

To show how finicky these things are... I think Beechwood also has a very realistic path to the 2nd seed.

If CovCath beats Highlands then that will certainly help to buoy CC's resume even if they lose to Cathedral.

More importantly, all those 6A teams that Beechwood beat and Campbell County remaining are potential game changers if they can find some wins down the stretch. Beechwood got a big bonus bump jumping 4 classes. Those teams will be beating up on each other which doesn't necessarily help a ton, but if they all can find some wins against teams like Great Crossing, Boone County, and Simon Kenton then this could really have a big amplification effect.

NewCath hasn't helped Beechwood yet. It was a play down win and they are losing often. NewCath should string together a handful of wins so their rating isn't as bad of a win.

What will not help Beechwood is their District may have the lowest value of all the 2A District right now. Belfry has a weak district slate ahead as well. OCath's isn't anything special either but Hancock County does help them more than Belfry and Beechwood's running mates.

I do think that Ocath district could be tougher than most with Hancock and Mclean and ft Knox.  I don't think any of them have a losing record.  I may be wrong on this.  But yes only 4 teams benefit them.

1	Owensboro Catholic	2A	2	6	-	1			7	1.24129	.57172	.64266	.82735
2	Danville	2A	4	6	-	1			7	1.11290	.61597	.54460	.76848
3	Mayfield	2A	1	6	-	1			7	1.14549	.48390	.58547	.74592
4	Belfry	2A	8	6	-	1			7	.97436	.57599	.61226	.72630
5	Lexington Christian	2A	4	3	-	3			6	.64979	.92728	.54952	.71683
6	Prestonsburg	2A	7	6	-	0			6	1.00000	.46549	.58890	.68959
7	Beechwood	2A	5	5	-	1			6	1.04493	.46549	.53463	.68903
8	Breathitt County	2A	6	4	-	2			6	.82840	.60764	.57867	.67621
9	Martin County	2A	7	6	-	1			7	.87856	.49968	.57848	.65593
10	Somerset	2A	3	6	-	1			7	.93153	.47413	.54262	.65477
11	Green County	2A	3	5	-	2			7	.87377	.54981	.51798	.65364
12	Monroe County	2A	3	5	-	2			7	.90908	.48001	.54844	.65071
13	Caldwell County	2A	1	5	-	2			7	.83150	.47723	.52939	.61687
14	Washington County	2A	4	4	-	3			7	.73786	.49492	.55494	.59796
15	Hancock County	2A	2	4	-	3			7	.73786	.50762	.53551	.59657
16	Bracken County	2A	5	4	-	2			6	.72036	.52428	.53424	.59590
17	Knott County Central	2A	7	5	-	2			7	.67944	.56396	.44985	.57015
18	WEB DuBois	2A	4	3	-	4			7	.49601	.61316	.55726	.55539
19	Fort Knox	2A	2	3	-	3			6	.69417	.45935	.48191	.54831
20	Crittenden County	2A	1	4	-	3			7	.59284	.44038	.52491	.51910
21	Shawnee	2A	4	3	-	3			6	.61177	.43159	.50436	.51648
22	Fort Campbell	2A	1	3	-	3			6	.52498	.49609	.47906	.50109
23	McLean County	2A	2	3	-	3			6	.61177	.37974	.42344	.47406
24	Metcalfe County	2A	3	1	-	6			7	.16427	.72855	.50935	.46529
25	East Ridge	2A	8	2	-	5			7	.28571	.60640	.48449	.45759
26	Shelby Valley	2A	8	2	-	4			6	.33333	.54602	.48813	.45421
27	Betsy Layne	2A	8	2	-	4			6	.33333	.55245	.46741	.45025
28	West Carter	2A	6	2	-	4			6	.35832	.55525	.42718	.44790
29	Leslie County	2A	7	2	-	5			7	.28571	.54480	.50248	.44142
30	St. Henry	2A	5	2	-	4			6	.33333	.49947	.41175	.41501
31	Owen County	2A	5	2	-	4			6	.35832	.42274	.44263	.40616
32	Pike County Central	2A	8	1	-	5			6	.16667	.55927	.49578	.40281
33	Trigg County	2A	1	1	-	5			6	.25345	.42372	.49508	.38554
34	Clinton County	2A	3	1	-	6			7	.16427	.47502	.46889	.36442
35	Walton-Verona	2A	5	1	-	5			6	.16667	.46887	.45081	.35768
36	Morgan County	2A	6	2	-	4			6	.35832	.23981	.45979	.34728
37	Todd County Central	2A	1	1	-	6			7	.14286	.43533	.44991	.33734
38	Gallatin County	2A	5	1	-	5			6	.16667	.38158	.42892	.32056
39	Floyd Central	2A	7	1	-	5			6	.19165	.27041	.47357	.30379
40	Jackson County	2A	6	1	-	5			6	.16667	.28220	.47946	.30094

Something’s got to change here “if” rankings are to be held as source of truth……

I think this was discussed earlier last week, but in 2A, there are 2 districts that have 6 schools in a district (examples are Beechwood and Mayfield districts).

There are 4 districts with 5 schools in district.

AND 2 school districts with 4 schools in a district (examples are OCA and Breathitt districts).

Does anyone have the knowledge or direction where KHSAA will be going with redistricting to make the playing field better for everyone?  2A is not the only district facing these issues either.

 

 

I don’t see how Mayfield can be so high, especially above som of the teams right below them.  They haven’t played anybody except Tilghman and got blown out in that game.

5 minutes ago, Paul Dean said:

I don’t see how Mayfield can be so high, especially above som of the teams right below them.  They haven’t played anybody except Tilghman and got blown out in that game.

Where should they be? Where would you put them?

1 hour ago, snakesnot_2000 said:

Where should they be? Where would you put them?

Right now, probably below Belfry and Beechwood.  Really close to LCA.

7 minutes ago, Paul Dean said:

Right now, probably below Belfry and Beechwood.  Really close to LCA.

Why? Who has Belfry beaten? Beechwood did the same thing against Covington Cath that Mayfield did against PT. 

Is Fort Knox going to play Owensboro Catholic?

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1 hour ago, snakesnot_2000 said:

Why? Who has Belfry beaten? Beechwood did the same thing against Covington Cath that Mayfield did against PT. 

I guess none of them have played a really strong schedule, except for maybe one game and each of them lost that game.

6 minutes ago, TimeWillTell said:

Is Fort Knox going to play Owensboro Catholic?

Very questionable according to LexHerald today.

1 hour ago, Oldercoach said:

Very questionable according to LexHerald today.

This is going to be bad for Owensboro Catholic RPI. Sucks for everyone involved especially the Fort Knox and Fort Campbell kids.

Edited October 6, 2025Oct 6 by theguru

For those wondering about forfeits, straight from the KHSAA calculation page

 

Due to the limited number of contests for football compared to the other sports and the fact that football is divided into classes, and as the KHSAA office maintains the official district standings, there are additional clarifications and operations in football that are not necessary for other sports, as follows:

• A team is eligible to play 10 contests during the 11-week season;
• All games played, including forfeits, count as normal with RPI;
• A seeded district or contracted game unable to be played without forfeit attribution will be decided by comparative RPI following the last regular-season game;

What does it mean? I am not sure LOL... but it does appear that even if Fort Knox forfeits there will be a win result calculated in some fashion.