7 minutes ago, snakesnot_2000 said:

Kinda of tired of Mayfield and LCA in the 3rd round. 

Meanwhile the rest of 2A when that happens...

1 hour ago, snakesnot_2000 said:

Kinda of tired of Mayfield and LCA in the 3rd round. 

Me too!

15 hours ago, Voice of Reason said:

How much of a boost does Beechwood get beating a 6A team versus Belfry beating 3A Letcher Co. Central?

 

Depends.. Campbell County has a winnable game against Great Crossing but they are only sitting at 2 wins and have a base RPI score of .44267. Their OWP score is decent right now and playing Beechwood helps that score. If Campbell beats Great Crossing they probably come in with a better RPI value, if they lose it will drop as their WP is already very low.  

As I mentioned earlier, beating bad 6A teams is RPI candy though because of the bonus multiplier.

Letcher Central has a pretty solid .60948 RPI score right now and it should be a hair higher once they beat Powell County. Belfry gets one level of bonus. I would say these will be pretty similar scores once everything balances out and maybe a tick higher for Beechwood.

For both teams, those games probably aren't their most important paths.

Beechwood needs Dixie Heights to beat Boone County, Campbell County to beat Great Crossing, and Simon Kenton is the x-factor. The OWP and OOWP of these weaker 5A and 6A teams is fairly average and won't vary a ton, but with Ryle playing two teams and Campbell County playing Beechwood it should get a tick up but nothing major. For Beechwood they need the WP to increase on all three of these teams so that bonus multiplier factors more heavily. Back to Simon Kenton... all it takes is one upset of either Cooper or Ryle and I think Beechwood gets the little bump they need to pass Belfry.

Belfry really needs East Carter to continue rolling and beat Russell and Raceland. They would get more from that result substantially increasing in value. Belfry also needs to make sure their lone loss Johnson Central finishes the drill undefeated with a massive RPI score so their loss remains a very good loss. 

Belfry's loss to Johnson Central is much better than Beechwood's loss to CovCath in the eyes of the RPI. Both teams are the same class but Johnson Central has around a .18 value higher than CovCath and that value may grow to .2 by the end of the season. I cannot stress enough how important CovCath beating Cathedral was. An out of state loss is brutal in the RPI.. 

Beechwood is relying heavily on bonus points from beating these weaker 5A & 6A teams because the base RPI of Belfry's non-district wins are higher value, but Beechwood's bonus is helping to keep them in the mix. Belfry simply doesn't have the 5A and 6A bonus points... but the worst case scenario for Beechwood that I already mentioned is if Southwestern upsets either South Laurel or Rockcastle County. They almost got North Laurel this past week. Right now Southwestern's WP is really low. Both of these teams will help their OWP and OOWP values because they have great records, so an upset in either game will be a significant bump for their overall RPI.

Long story summarized:

We all expect Belfry and Beechwood to finish 9-1. Beechwood should pick up a little ground because Campbell County's bonus value being 6A should slightly make that win better than beating a 3A team with a lot more wins and a better base RPI value.

Ultimately for Beechwood to pass Belfry they need help as any game Simon Kenton, Dixie Heights, or Campbell County wins gets amplified. Belfry's best hope lies in East Carter, but the Raiders are high risk high reward. 

If I had to make a prediction... I think East Carter drops the game to Raceland. I don't think either team gets a surprise upset. I think Campbell gets that third win over Great Crossing, I think Dixie beats Boone. 

I predict Beechwood sneaks ahead by the thinnest of margins as a result.

 

We have beat LCA 2 of the last 3  although last year was ugly for us...bring em on...I think it be a better game than last year and the 1st 2 was very exciting...if I had my choice I will take them out of BW or having to go to OC in 3rd round...IMO

I would love to see 5-A scenario and How my Red Devils road to the finals might pan out, please????

16 minutes ago, DaTruth said:

We have beat LCA 2 of the last 3  although last year was ugly for us...bring em on...I think it be a better game than last year and the 1st 2 was very exciting...if I had my choice I will take them out of BW or having to go to OC in 3rd round...IMO

The atmosphere there in 22 and 23 was unreal for high school football. 

17 minutes ago, TimeWillTell said:

I would love to see 5-A scenario and How my Red Devils road to the finals might pan out, please????

Get back to me after the Madisonville game. Right now that is too big of a puzzle piece to even look at anything without being in place.

There are four absolute monster games in 5A the next two weeks between Owensboro vs. Madisonville, Scott County vs. Woodford County, South Oldham vs. Collins, and North Laurel vs. Pulaski County. 

 

2A is pretty predictable how the Districts will shake out but 5A could look completely different in two weeks.

20 hours ago, Voice of Reason said:

I am thinking Beechwood is ahead of Belfry in RPI at the end of the season. If true, that likely sets up Belfry to O Cath in the semifinals.

I'm not sure being ahead of Belfry in the RPI is an advantage. I think I would prefer going to OBC vs going to Mayfield or LCA in the semifinals. To me, it's a wash, at best, either way.

17 hours ago, Voice of Reason said:

How much of a boost does Beechwood get beating a 6A team versus Belfry beating 3A Letcher Co. Central?

 

One extra tiny caveat that probably won't matter much, but does have a direct head to head impact on Belfry vs. Beechwood RPI.

Both teams have two district games to get through that won't necessarily help them much in RPI and on the whole kind of balance each other out. Beechwood has one of the very worst RPI teams in Gallatin County and a decent RPI team in Bracken County. Belfry has two teams firmly splitting the middle of those in Shelby Valley and Betsy Layne.

So let's look at Bracken County. The Polar Bears have a respectable .58820 score which puts them ahead of any Belfry District win by a decent clip. The caveat is who bracken plays to end the Regular Season. A non-district game against Pikeville.

Pikeville started off with a bad RPI ranked amongst the teens in 1A but they are slowly growing every week and have two games that should help them make a noticeable jump. The Panthers are up to the #5 RPI in 1A and if they beat Hazard and a class jump game against Bracken County they have a chance to have the 3rd best RPI in the class. Belfry's win playing down against Pikeville has gotten better each week That Pikeville vs. Bracken County game turns into a situation where Belfry benefits a good deal more of Pikeville beating Bracken County than the other way around. Once again, this isn't make or break.. but as tight as this race is it could prove a difference if Belfry gains an OWP boost from a class jump victory while Beechwood takes a OWP hit from a class drop loss as well as their best District win gets a little weaker on the WP side.

1 hour ago, ATLCat said:

One extra tiny caveat that probably won't matter much, but does have a direct head to head impact on Belfry vs. Beechwood RPI.

Both teams have two district games to get through that won't necessarily help them much in RPI and on the whole kind of balance each other out. Beechwood has one of the very worst RPI teams in Gallatin County and a decent RPI team in Bracken County. Belfry has two teams firmly splitting the middle of those in Shelby Valley and Betsy Layne.

So let's look at Bracken County. The Polar Bears have a respectable .58820 score which puts them ahead of any Belfry District win by a decent clip. The caveat is who bracken plays to end the Regular Season. A non-district game against Pikeville.

Pikeville started off with a bad RPI ranked amongst the teens in 1A but they are slowly growing every week and have two games that should help them make a noticeable jump. The Panthers are up to the #5 RPI in 1A and if they beat Hazard and a class jump game against Bracken County they have a chance to have the 3rd best RPI in the class. Belfry's win playing down against Pikeville has gotten better each week That Pikeville vs. Bracken County game turns into a situation where Belfry benefits a good deal more of Pikeville beating Bracken County than the other way around. Once again, this isn't make or break.. but as tight as this race is it could prove a difference if Belfry gains an OWP boost from a class jump victory while Beechwood takes a OWP hit from a class drop loss as well as their best District win gets a little weaker on the WP side.

First let me say I am enjoying reading your posts.  It really sheds some light on the Kentucky RPI system and some of the intricacies.

 

Second I wonder how many AD's/coaches put as much effort as you have into looking at this when scheduling.  I would want to when it comes time to schedule use this type of information to put my team in the best position possible.  Again I am just wondering out loud..

3 hours ago, cincyswords said:

First let me say I am enjoying reading your posts.  It really sheds some light on the Kentucky RPI system and some of the intricacies.

 

Second I wonder how many AD's/coaches put as much effort as you have into looking at this when scheduling.  I would want to when it comes time to schedule use this type of information to put my team in the best position possible.  Again I am just wondering out loud..

First of all Thank You! Just trying to add some content.

I think you can see some AD’s and HC’s who have taken the RPI factor seriously.

Kentucky Country Day immediately jumps to mind. Their schedule was an RPI dream schedule. It is important to note also that for 90 percent of teams the RPI will usually not matter. It only picks up Round 3 so a lot of programs just wish they could build to be able to play that deep and will schedule for what best allows that.

I do think you are seeing more and more RPI consideration from the more consistently strong programs. A lot less out of state games unless absolutely necessary. 
 

Ultimately the rub is teams still have to fill a schedule and fill the stands. I am sure if you are a 3 win 5A team or 3 win 6A team there are no shortage of schools ringing your phone to play. If you are a powerhouse smaller school you probably aren’t getting called a whole lot.

1	Owensboro Catholic	2A	2	7	-	1			8	1.21113	.56384	.61408	.80546
2	Lexington Christian	2A	4	5	-	3			8	.73734	.87250	.53558	.72412
3	Mayfield	2A	1	7	-	1			8	1.12730	.46618	.53871	.71933
4	Danville	2A	4	7	-	2			9	.97670	.54858	.58892	.71052
5	Belfry	2A	8	7	-	1			8	.97756	.53496	.57968	.70329
6	Beechwood	2A	5	7	-	1			8	1.03369	.47435	.49137	.67523
7	Breathitt County	2A	6	6	-	2			8	.87130	.56434	.54020	.66453
8	Prestonsburg	2A	7	8	-	0			8	1.00000	.41845	.54523	.66003
9	Somerset	2A	3	7	-	1			8	.94009	.48145	.54046	.65968
10	Martin County	2A	7	7	-	1			8	.89374	.47270	.55082	.64350
11	Monroe County	2A	3	5	-	3			8	.79545	.50086	.52516	.61125
12	Green County	2A	3	6	-	2			8	.84928	.44005	.50810	.60369
13	Bracken County	2A	5	6	-	2			8	.79027	.48388	.49421	.59422
14	Hancock County	2A	2	5	-	3			8	.70554	.54523	.51675	.59280
15	Caldwell County	2A	1	6	-	2			8	.85256	.37167	.52324	.58545
16	Washington County	2A	4	5	-	3			8	.73036	.47539	.54336	.58502
17	Knott County Central	2A	7	6	-	2			8	.71951	.50895	.46571	.56967
18	WEB DuBois	2A	4	3	-	5			8	.43401	.63200	.58257	.54787
19	Crittenden County	2A	1	5	-	3			8	.64374	.38480	.53711	.52112
20	Fort Knox	2A	2	3	-	4			7	.54898	.53714	.46019	.51820
21	Shelby Valley	2A	8	4	-	4			8	.50000	.49564	.50522	.50004
22	Shawnee	2A	4	3	-	5			8	.45883	.45548	.54492	.48348
23	West Carter	2A	6	3	-	5			8	.39374	.52172	.43947	.45225
24	Fort Campbell	2A	1	3	-	5			8	.39374	.49898	.46270	.45126
25	McLean County	2A	2	3	-	4			7	.52437	.37484	.42749	.44297
26	Metcalfe County	2A	3	1	-	7			8	.14374	.70622	.47607	.44031
27	Leslie County	2A	7	2	-	7			9	.22222	.59109	.51756	.43993
28	Betsy Layne	2A	8	2	-	6			8	.25000	.57589	.48709	.43519
29	St. Henry	2A	5	2	-	6			8	.25000	.55880	.43903	.41479
30	Pike County Central	2A	8	2	-	6			8	.25000	.50441	.48739	.41026
31	East Ridge	2A	8	2	-	7			9	.22222	.52560	.48805	.40815
32	Walton-Verona	2A	5	3	-	5			8	.37500	.40258	.45169	.40766
33	Trigg County	2A	1	1	-	6			7	.14286	.57699	.44003	.38396
34	Owen County	2A	5	2	-	6			8	.26874	.41171	.44840	.37268
35	Morgan County	2A	6	3	-	5			8	.39374	.26642	.47096	.37234
36	Clinton County	2A	3	1	-	7			8	.14374	.50576	.45811	.36476
37	Floyd Central	2A	7	1	-	7			8	.14374	.45009	.47734	.35104
38	Todd County Central	2A	1	1	-	7			8	.12500	.47655	.42514	.33808
39	Gallatin County	2A	5	1	-	7			8	.12500	.41772	.45012	.32499
40	Jackson County	2A	6	1	-	7			8	.10873	.28767	.42588	.26650

Pretty wild that the #3 team statewide is going to have to travel 4 hours in the 3rd round.

RPI is ridiculous!

 

On 9/28 Beechwood’s RPI was .72436.  Since District play they have won 4 consecutive running clock games by combined scores of 263-6 which produced an RPI decline to .67523 and a current 6th seeding.  Got to gulp a little.