Thoughts heading into this week:

- Beechwood got the clutch week they needed. CovCath's win over Cathedral didn't necessarily help move Beechwood up a ton but it 100% helped avoid a very negative potential path. They got a 6A OWP boost from Simon Kenton beating Great Crossing and Dixie Heights beating Conner, NewCath won as well. As long as Beechwood beats Campbell County they should be safely placed into a 3rd Round home playoff game and should be able to avoid an early game against Belfry as long as Belfry doesn't slip up as well.

- LCA is sitting in prime real estate. Despite the losses essentially their entire schedule is nothing but RPI darlings who just keep winning. They still have a weak 6A team to finish the year but even weak 6A teams are RPI candy. More on this week's game below. Week 10 will be pivotal for LCA as OWP will be their make or break. No team has a more straightforward path to the 2nd overall seed as long as the teams expected to win continue winning for them.

- OCath remains sitting very pretty at the top. Now that Bowling Green is in District play each week only makes OCath stronger. Even if Owensboro takes an L vs. Madisonville it is going to be very hard to knock OCath out of the 1-spot at this point. They have plenty of that weak 6A RPI candy that has helped them.

- Sub Tier.. but that Prestonsburg vs. Breathitt RPI score is a tight race to watch. Does it really matter a ton? Probably not... but it will determine who goes to Belfry and who goes to Beechwood and I am sure Pburg geographically would much rather prefer the short trip for their fans to Pond Creek.

- Big picture.. still a ton of variables to consider and none of this matters at the biggest picture more until we see how Round 3 shapes out... but if we assume OCath is pretty tough to move from #1 assuming they handle their business.. the next big question is what are the biggest risks for teams having to travel half the state if not longer. To that point, Belfry to me is the most vulnerable of the group having to go to OCath or Mayfield. Belfry still has a very clear path that may even get them to being the 2nd best RPI but they need help and without a 6A winnable game the final week unlike Beechwood and LCA it makes their path even more uphill.

 

Looking at this week's key RPI games, it is all about LCA.. this is the week for the Eagles to make their biggest move:

1. LCA vs. Danville- We all love the Danville storyline and love Danville being firmly in the 2A picture as it feels natural and right. With that said, Danville is kind of a prime example of how the RPI is flawed. I don't think anyone would concede the Admirals are close to being the 2nd best team in the State but that's how the CPU clearly views them. LCA has a chance to get a big RPI boost by beating the Admirals head to head. Don't be surprised to see that win be enough to move them to #2 next week.

2. Lexington Catholic at Bardstown- A booster for LCA's rise could be the OWP bonus from a play up win against 3A LexCath having a chance for a nice RPI score against Bardstown. Bardstown took a surprising loss to Garrard which tempered this a little but as OWP wins go that aren't washes from common victories, this is the best chance for an impact.

3. Graves County at Marshall County- Graves County as a 5A win for Mayfield is a variable they need to payoff. The Eagles have not done their part only winning once but this is a chance to help the Cardinals out as Marshall is a step down in competition to what they have seen all year. Mayfield needs Graves to finish with wins against Marshall County and Muhlenberg County. Christian County and McCracken play each other so Mayfield gets those points regardless this week.

4. Dixie Heights at Boone County- The Colonels did Beechwood a big solid taking care of Conner, now they get one more chance against Boone County. If Dixie wins then they probably go down as Beechwood's most important RPI victory to date. 

5. Southwestern at South Laurel- It has been clear that Belfry's 5A win over Southwestern was going to be difficult to pay off in OWP wins, but the Warriors almost pulled a shocker by taking North Laurel to the very end. The Warriors get one more chance to find a signature win that helps their 1st Round playoff chances and would definitely help Belfry's OWP and OOWP.

OTHERS:

Campbell County at Simon Kenton- This may have a short term gratification for Beechwood but ultimately this will be a wash game as long as they defeat Campbell County to end the year. Worth noting, Beechwood's best chance to make a big jump rests on the shoulder of Simon Kenton. The Pioneers have two opportunities left for big upset scores with Cooper and Ryle after this. An upset against either gives Beechwood a big unexpected bump in OWP and OOWP.. don't bank on it.. but stranger things ahve happened.

North Hardin at St. X- From an impact standpoint this could be absolutely massive for LCA if North Hardin won, but let's be honest none of us expect that to happen so it gets tempered. With that said, this will help LCA's OOWP regardless as the RPI really likes St. X in 6A.

Monroe County at Somerset- This is a big game tactfully as it will undoubtedly be the District Championship but not an especially big game in terms of RPI. Long story short, both teams need other teams to drop an unexpected game to have a chance to avoid being the 4th seeded District Representative coming out of the West. 

 

My brain is trying to catch up from reading all that, ATL, thanks!

Obviously this is completely unofficial and purely a guess (Math probably doesn't even math) , but if someone asked me to throw percentages of the 8 expected District winners amongst the Top 8 seeds in RPI (Excluding Danville even though they will have a higher RPI than a bunch of these teams but I don't expect them to win their District)

1 Seed

OCath- 70%

LCA-20%

Mayfield- 5%

Beechwood- 5%

 

2 Seed

LCA- 45%

OCath- 20%

Mayfield- 15%

Beechwood- 10%

Belfry- 10%

 

3 Seed

LCA- 30%

Mayfield- 25%

Beechwod- 20%

Belfry- 20%

OCath- 5%

 

4 Seed

Beechwood- 30%

Belfry- 30%

Mayfield- 25%

LCA- 5%

Field- 5%

 

5 Seed

Beechwood- 35%

Belfry- 35%

Mayfield- 20%

LCA- 5%

Prestonsburg- 5%

 

6 Seed

Prestonsburg - 40%

Somerset/Monroe Winner- 30%

Breathitt County- 25%

Belfry- 5%

 

7 Seed

Somerset/Monroe- 35%

Breathitt County- 35%

Prestonsburg- 30%

 

8 Seed

Somerset/Monroe- 40%

Breathitt County- 40%

Prestonsburg- 20%

 

 

 

2 minutes ago, theguru said:

Let's put it this way:

OCath- Very good chance they play at home until the Finals. Big fans of Bowling Green and Owensboro.

LCA- Best chance to play at home until Finals outside of OCath, but they don't want any upsets of teams they have played and they want the three teams chasing them to not get any big wins from their opponents.

Mayfield/Beechwood/Belfry- Too close to call. They all need help to host Semi-Finals. Mayfield is cheering for McCracken County and Graves County. Belfry is cheering big for East Carter. Beechwood- Wants any 5A or 6A team they beat to win.

Somerset/Monroe County/Pburg/Breathitt- Too close to call, probably heading on the road anyway so it doesn't matter a ton. 

Just now, ATLCat said:

Let's put it this way:

OCath- Very good chance they play at home until the Finals. Big fans of Bowling Green and Owensboro.

LCA- Best chance to play at home until Finals outside of OCath, but they don't want any upsets of teams they have played and they want the three teams chasing them to not get any big wins from their opponents.

Mayfield/Beechwood/Belfry- Too close to call. They all need help to host Semi-Finals. Mayfield is cheering for McCracken County and Graves County. Belfry is cheering big for East Carter. Beechwood- Wants any 5A or 6A team they beat to win.

Somerset/Monroe County/Pburg/Breathitt- Too close to call, probably heading on the road anyway so it doesn't matter a ton. 

I love your work @ATLCat!

Go Beechwood Tigers!!

3 hours ago, ATLCat said:

Let's put it this way:

OCath- Very good chance they play at home until the Finals. Big fans of Bowling Green and Owensboro.

LCA- Best chance to play at home until Finals outside of OCath, but they don't want any upsets of teams they have played and they want the three teams chasing them to not get any big wins from their opponents.

Mayfield/Beechwood/Belfry- Too close to call. They all need help to host Semi-Finals. Mayfield is cheering for McCracken County and Graves County. Belfry is cheering big for East Carter. Beechwood- Wants any 5A or 6A team they beat to win.

Somerset/Monroe County/Pburg/Breathitt- Too close to call, probably heading on the road anyway so it doesn't matter a ton. 

I am thinking Beechwood is ahead of Belfry in RPI at the end of the season. If true, that likely sets up Belfry to O Cath in the semifinals.

I think Beechwood fans will be paying VERY close attention to Belfry's road game vs. 3A Letcher County Central. Letcher is 5-3 overall and 13th in the 3A RPI currently.

If Belfry wins that, I think they stay higher than Beechwood in the RPI. If they lose, I think Beechwood passes them and finished #3. I believe Belfry wins that game, so you'd end with #1 Owensboro Catholic, #2 Mayfield, #3 Belfry, and #4 Beechwood.

So week 4 -

#4 Beechwood at #1 Owensboro Catholic

#3 Belfry takes the 426 mile journey to face #2 Mayfield. (yikes)

Tell me where my logic trail is wrong here....

 

10 minutes ago, BrosefStalin said:

I think Beechwood fans will be paying VERY close attention to Belfry's road game vs. 3A Letcher County Central. Letcher is 5-3 overall and 13th in the 3A RPI currently.

If Belfry wins that, I think they stay higher than Beechwood in the RPI. If they lose, I think Beechwood passes them and finished #3. I believe Belfry wins that game, so you'd end with #1 Owensboro Catholic, #2 Mayfield, #3 Belfry, and #4 Beechwood.

So week 4 -

#4 Beechwood at #1 Owensboro Catholic

#3 Belfry takes the 426 mile journey to face #2 Mayfield. (yikes)

Tell me where my logic trail is wrong here....

 

How much of a boost does Beechwood get beating a 6A team versus Belfry beating 3A Letcher Co. Central?

 

54 minutes ago, BrosefStalin said:

I think Beechwood fans will be paying VERY close attention to Belfry's road game vs. 3A Letcher County Central. Letcher is 5-3 overall and 13th in the 3A RPI currently.

If Belfry wins that, I think they stay higher than Beechwood in the RPI. If they lose, I think Beechwood passes them and finished #3. I believe Belfry wins that game, so you'd end with #1 Owensboro Catholic, #2 Mayfield, #3 Belfry, and #4 Beechwood.

So week 4 -

#4 Beechwood at #1 Owensboro Catholic

#3 Belfry takes the 426 mile journey to face #2 Mayfield. (yikes)

Tell me where my logic trail is wrong here....

 

Where's LCA in all this? Somebody has to play them in round 3.

So Belfry went to Union Co last year and now potentially have to got to Mayfield which is even further (given these hold true). How is this fair? 

1 hour ago, snakesnot_2000 said:

Where's LCA in all this? Somebody has to play them in round 3.

It is most likely Mayfield vs LCA again in round 3. Owensboro Catholic is highly likely to be #1 in RPI so they will play the #4 RPI team in the west in round 3.

The team to watch is Danville. Where they fall in RPI could change that up. They are #2 in RPI currently. If they lose to LCA, they will drop. How far will they drop? If they stay higher than Mayfield in RPI AND if they can win their way to round 3, then Mayfield would travel to Owensboro Catholic in round 3. If Danville is second in their district, they will need to beat Green County (5-2) in round 1 and Somerset in round 2 just to get to round 3.

That is a lot of if's. Thus, highly likely Mayfield at LCA in round 3.

2 hours ago, Voice of Reason said:

It is most likely Mayfield vs LCA again in round 3. Owensboro Catholic is highly likely to be #1 in RPI so they will play the #4 RPI team in the west in round 3.

The team to watch is Danville. Where they fall in RPI could change that up. They are #2 in RPI currently. If they lose to LCA, they will drop. How far will they drop? If they stay higher than Mayfield in RPI AND if they can win their way to round 3, then Mayfield would travel to Owensboro Catholic in round 3. If Danville is second in their district, they will need to beat Green County (5-2) in round 1 and Somerset in round 2 just to get to round 3.

That is a lot of if's. Thus, highly likely Mayfield at LCA in round 3.

I’m going to start using “highly likely”

Kinda of tired of Mayfield and LCA in the 3rd round. 

2 hours ago, Voice of Reason said:

It is most likely Mayfield vs LCA again in round 3. Owensboro Catholic is highly likely to be #1 in RPI so they will play the #4 RPI team in the west in round 3.

The team to watch is Danville. Where they fall in RPI could change that up. They are #2 in RPI currently. If they lose to LCA, they will drop. How far will they drop? If they stay higher than Mayfield in RPI AND if they can win their way to round 3, then Mayfield would travel to Owensboro Catholic in round 3. If Danville is second in their district, they will need to beat Green County (5-2) in round 1 and Somerset in round 2 just to get to round 3.

That is a lot of if's. Thus, highly likely Mayfield at LCA in round 3.

In my scenario above, Mayfield hosts LCA in round 3